%20%20--%3E%0A%3Csvg%20version%3D%221.1%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20xmlns%3Axlink%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1999%2Fxlink%22%20x%3D%220px%22%20y%3D%220px%22%0A%09%20viewBox%3D%220%200%201055.1%20200%22%20style%3D%22enable-background%3Anew%200%200%201055.1%20200%3B%22%20xml%3Aspace%3D%22preserve%22%3E%0A%3Cstyle%20type%3D%22text%2Fcss%22%3E%0A%09.st0%7Bfill%3A%23231F20%3B%7D%0A%09.st1%7Bfill%3A%230E203C%3B%7D%0A%09.st2%7Bfill%3A%23EC4324%3B%7D%0A%09.st3%7Bfill%3A%23FFFFFF%3B%7D%0A%3C%2Fstyle%3E%0A%3Cg%20id%3D%22Template%22%3E%0A%3C%2Fg%3E%0A%3Cg%20id%3D%22Layer_2%22%3E%0A%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st3%22%20d%3D%22M58.3%2C200.3h82.4c12.4%2C0%2C21.7-1.5%2C28-4.5c20.2-9.6%2C30.2-26.1%2C30.2-49.3c0-3.2-0.2-9.3-0.6-18.3h-65.1v14.9%0A%09%09c-0.9%2C3.9-3.4%2C5.8-7.5%2C5.8H73.2c-5%2C0-7.5-2.5-7.5-7.5V59.2c0-5%2C2.5-7.5%2C7.5-7.5h52.5c5%2C0%2C7.5%2C2.1%2C7.5%2C6.4v10.8h65.7V55.7%0A%09%09c0-16.3-3.8-28.3-11.4-36.1c-8.8-12.9-24.7-19.3-47.4-19.3H58.9C47%2C0.3%2C38%2C1.7%2C32%2C4.3c-21.3%2C9-32%2C26.1-32%2C51.4v88%0A%09%09c0%2C16.5%2C3.6%2C28.7%2C10.9%2C36.6C20.1%2C193.7%2C35.9%2C200.3%2C58.3%2C200.3z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st3%22%20points%3D%22596.6%2C64%20596.6%2C0.8%20400.1%2C0.8%20400.1%2C64%20442.7%2C64%20442.7%2C51.3%20466.1%2C51.3%20466.1%2C148.1%20442.1%2C148.1%20%0A%09%09442.1%2C199.9%20554.8%2C199.9%20554.8%2C148.1%20531.5%2C148.1%20531.5%2C51.4%20554.8%2C51.4%20554.8%2C64%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st3%22%20points%3D%22942.4%2C148.5%20942.4%2C200.2%201055.1%2C200.2%201055.1%2C148.5%201031.8%2C148.5%201031.8%2C51.2%201055.1%2C51.2%201055.1%2C0.8%20%0A%09%09943.1%2C0.8%20943.1%2C51.3%20966.3%2C51.3%20966.3%2C80%20888.9%2C80%20888.9%2C51.3%20912.6%2C51.3%20912.6%2C0.5%20800.1%2C0.8%20800.1%2C51.4%20823.5%2C51.4%20823.5%2C148.6%20%0A%09%09800.1%2C148.6%20800.1%2C200.1%20912.6%2C200.1%20912.6%2C148.6%20888.9%2C148.6%20888.9%2C116.4%20966.3%2C116.4%20966.3%2C148.5%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st2%22%20points%3D%22315.5%2C83.9%20299.6%2C34.9%20283.7%2C83.9%20232.2%2C83.9%20273.9%2C114.1%20258%2C163.1%20299.6%2C132.8%20341.3%2C163.1%20%0A%09%09325.4%2C114.1%20367%2C83.9%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st2%22%20points%3D%22715.6%2C83.9%20699.7%2C34.9%20683.8%2C83.9%20632.3%2C83.9%20674%2C114.1%20658%2C163.1%20699.7%2C132.8%20741.3%2C163.1%20%0A%09%09725.4%2C114.1%20767.1%2C83.9%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%3C%2Fg%3E%0A%3C%2Fsvg%3E%0A)
3 reasons the Astros can actually hang on to win the AL West, 2 why they can't
The Houston Astros have a tough road ahead of them to win another division title.
The AL West race has been pure chaos over the last few weeks and the Houston Astros have been right in the middle of it. The Seattle Mariners got nuclear hot for a while there while the Texas Rangers seemingly forgot how to play baseball. Fortunately, the Astros have emerged from this latest stretch of anarchy with a 1.5 game lead in the race for the AL West title.
Sweeping the collapsing Rangers was a big step in the right direction and while the team has had its ups and downs lately, it is clear that this Astros team is more than capable of beating any team on any given night. The question right now is whether or not they have what it takes to close this season out and actually win the division.
Here are 3 reasons the Astros can hang on to win the AL West, 2 why they can't
There are a lot of moving parts to playoff races and the Astros only have control over some of them. Sometimes another team just goes on a hot streak and there is nothing that can be done about that. However, there are a few reasons why Astros fans should be bullish about their chances of winning the AL West yet again and a couple that should be cause for concern.
Let's take a look at the Astros' chances of hanging on to win the AL West in 2023 and why it may not happen.
The Rangers' collapse has made them all but a non-factor
It is borderline impressive to see this Texas Rangers team go from having arguably the best offense in the league and trading for Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to struggling to beat anybody and crashing and burning the way they have. Texas has gone from leading the division to not even being in the playoffs if the season ended today.
This drastically reduces the opportunities for things to go sideways for Houston the rest of the way. If Texas was playing well, Houston would have to worry about Texas going on a run and complicating the playoff picture with no further ways for the Astros to stop them. However, the Rangers' bullpen is a mess and their offense has turned into a pumpkin in recent weeks. That likely means one less team that Houston needs to worry about down the stretch.
The Astros' pitching staff has struggled for the last month
One of the reasons that Houston has been so feast or famine recently is that the pitching staff has had a tough time of late. Over the last 30 days, they have put up a 4.75 ERA and have been even worse if you narrow things down to just the month of September. Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown have looked particularly vulnerable of late.
The last thing the Astros need is for their pitching staff to fail them down the stretch. There is enough talent there that one would think they could get back on track and finish this thing out. However, if recent trends hold and Houston can't get things done on the mound, the Astros could find themselves fighting for their playoff lives the last week of the season.
Houston has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way
Fortunately for the Astros, there aren't too many landmines left on their remaining schedule. After they finish up with the Padres, Houston has series against Oakland and Kansas City twice where they should bee overwhelming favored to be able to pad their lead. Having nine games left against two of the worst teams in baseball is definitely a plus.
There are some potential pitfalls, though. A home series against the AL-best Baltimore Orioles could be a playoff preview and the Astros also have a road series against the Mariners late in September that could easily decide the division if there is a sweep either way. All in all, the schedule is a favorable one for Houston, but they have to take advantage of those games against the dregs of the league.
The Mariners' remaining schedule gives them a lot of opportunities
The Astros are not the only team that has a remaining schedule that provides some opportunities as Seattle could make some noise over the final weeks of the season as well. They have had their hands full with the Rays and have a series with the Dodgers coming up soon, but they also have series against Oakland and the Angels coming up where they should be able to handle business. More importantly, they have seven games against the Rangers the rest of the way. If Texas has indeed fully collapsed, Seattle could make up a lot of ground there.
Ultimately, the biggest series left on the schedule for both of these teams is the one that they play against each other September 25-27. Seattle will be at home for that series and Seattle swept Houston the last time they played. If history repeats itself and Seattle dominates the Astros again, that could decide the division on the spot.
Houston's offense is playing their best baseball of the season right now
The best thing that the Astros have going for them right now is that their offense is peaking at exactly the right time. Houston's offense has been tops in baseball by fWAR in the month of September at 2.9 and have an even bigger lead in wRC+ at 155. Yordan Alvarez has been awesome lately and Jose Altuve has five homers this month. Even Jose Abreu, who has struggled to do much of anything this season, has driven in 14 runs over his last eight games.
Even if the Astros' pitching staff continues to falter the rest of the way, they SHOULDN'T cost the Astros the division title if the offense keeps playing like this. That is far from a sure thing but with a bunch of seemingly easy games against some bad teams with suspect pitching, it definitely is good news that the offense is playing their best baseball right now.
More Astros News from Climbing Tal's Hill
manual