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3 other ways Astros can spend Alex Bregman's money if he walks
The Astros have some tough tough choices to make with Alex Bregman set to hit free agency soon.
The Houston Astros are a team that is about to hit a key transitional phase as an organization. Over the next couple of seasons, the long-term futures of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, and Kyle Tucker all need to be decided. If the Astros want to remain among the league's elite teams, they simply have to get these decisions right.
Altuve feels like a straight-forward candidate for an extension and by all accounts, one does appear to be likely. There is already some Framber Valdez trade chatter out there, but Houston trading him away this year feels unlikely given that they want to compete in 2024. Tucker is in a similar boat as he still has some team control and the Astros don't have to make a decision there just yet. However, it is looking more and more like third baseman Alex Bregman isn't going to be back after next season and it is time to start looking at what life will be like if/when that happens.
Here are 3 other ways the Astros spend the money that it would take to keep Alex Bregman
There have been multiple reports that Houston is fully expecting Bregman to leave in free agency. He has been an extremely valuable player to the Astros, but there are already recent reports that Bregman is looking to get around $300 million with his next deal which will probably price Houston out especially given that his production has dipped in recent years.
Bregman is making $28.5 million next year and is probably going to command an AAV north of $30 million in the next contract he signs especially with Scott Boras as his agent. Assuming the Astros aren't going to be the team paying him that, here is a look at some of the better ways that Houston can spend that sort of money if/when Bregman walks.
Signing Corbin Burnes would be a better use of Houston's money than Bregman
While next offseason's free agent class when it comes to position players is pretty bleak outside of Juan Soto who almost certainly will be out of the Astros' price range, we turn to the pitching market which does have some studs available for the moment. In a world where Houston is freed from paying Bregman after next season, they really need to target impending free agent Corbin Burnes.
Among the top free agent starters that are set to be available next year, Burnes stands out as a guy with a tremendous track record and as a guy that is almost certainly not interested in re-signing with his old team. Burnes had a down year by his standards in 2023, but he still finished eighth in Cy Young voting and won the award in 2021. Given his ability to miss bats and put up a lot of innings, half of the league is going to be interested in signing him when he hits free agency.
One team that is extraordinarily unlikely to be able to sign him is the Brewers. Milwaukee screwed their relationship up with Burnes thanks to a very contentious arbitration hearing last year with few signs that that relationship has improved. The Brewers are already loathe to spend big on free agents most of the time and given the two sides' current feelings for each other, there is basically no shot the Burnes stays in Milwaukee beyond next season.
Assuming Bregman does indeed walk, the Astros would be in a prime position to land the ace. Even if Houston decides to extend Altuve for a decent chunk of change, they should still have plenty of money available to make a strong push for Burnes with the tax advantages of playing in Texas helping the cause. Signing Burnes would give Houston one of the league's strongest rotations as well as protect against the potential loss of Framber down the line and the potential end of Verlander's career which is coming whether we like it or not.
Extending both Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker should be the Astros' priority
Sometimes the easiest solution is the best one and in this case, the Astros have two players on their roster that would be very worthy investments with Bregman's cash in Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker. Both players have been extremely productive in Houston and both are also going to be very expensive to keep around.
Dana Brown has already made it clear that one of his goals is to try and extend both of these guys. Brown tried to extend both last offseason, but couldn't reach an agreement before the start of the season as the gap in negotiations was too large to overcome that quickly. The Valdez trade rumors over the last month or so do seem to indicate that the Astros are keeping their options open on these guys, but keeping them around does feel like one of the best uses of the savings that Alex Bregman hitting free agency would bring.
Valdez's situation is fluid at the moment, but if he has a good season, a deal in the realm of what Carlos Rodon got from the Yankees feels about right. As for Tucker, he was already predicted to be looking for a deal around nine years and $211 million before he went off at the plate in 2023, so he is going to be a harder and certainly more expensive sign.
That said, keeping both of those guys around simply has to be a priority for Houston. Valdez is among the better pitchers in baseball at the moment and Tucker is a perennial 30/30 threat with upside for even more than that. If the Astros truly want to try and keep this train rolling into the future, using Bregman's money to fund extending Valdez and Tucker seems like a good way to try to do just that.
Houston needs to push hard for Zack Wheeler instead of trying to keep Bregman
We turn again to the free agent market next offseason for our last option. Would Juan Soto be awesome in an Astros unform? Absolutely, but that guy is going to get Scrooge McDuck money and the Yankees (along with all the other big spenders) are going to push hard to bring him into the fold. That isn't a bidding war that the Astros need to be in.
One guy on the pitching side that does make a lot of sense and who absolutely would be a huge get would be Zack Wheeler. Wheeler showed a lot of promise during his time with the Mets, but it is his work with the Phillies since 2020 that has put him on the map as one of the best pitchers in MLB.
Over the last four seasons, Wheeler has averaged a 3.06 ERA with 675 strikeouts in 629.1 innings of work while walking just 1.9 batters per nine innings pitched. He has a pair of top 6 NL Cy Young finishes including finishing second to the aforementioned Burnes in 2021. Arguably more importantly, he has accomplished all of that with the mix of power pitches that analytics-forward teams like the Astros love and with good reason.
Assuming Wheeler doesn't re-up with the Phillies like his teammate Aaron Nola did, he is going to have no shortage of suitors next offseason. However, Houston still has the added benefit of playing home games in Texas which would put a little bit more money in his pocket and at 33 years old, he should still have plenty left in the tank to make Houston pursuing him worthwhile. If Bregman's days with the Astros are indeed numbered, the Astros could do a lot worse than using that money to add a bona fide ace like Wheeler.
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