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3 moves the Astros need to make right before the Winter Meetings
The Astros have some work to do ahead of the Winter Meetings.
It has been hard to peg the Houston Astros in terms of what they could do this offseason. The Astros absolutely have some roster spots they would like to upgrade heading into the 2024 season, but their payroll is looking awfully tight especially if owner Jim Crane is hellbent on staying below the luxury tax threshold. There is also the matter of the long-term futures of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Framber Valdez to consider.
If the Astros are not particularly active this offseason, they will still be in a good spot for 2024. However, if they want to be serious contenders for yet another World Series appearances, they have a few moves that they really need to make. Otherwise, there is a real risk that the Rangers will put some distance between the two teams in the division and would also give the Mariners a chance to make up ground as well.
Here are 3 moves the Astros really need to make ahead of the Winter Meetings
Thanksgiving is very often the calm before the storm that is free agency. We have seen a few moves across the league, but the marquee names haven't signed anywhere just yet. Much of that is due to the fact that the fates of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will determine the plans of the losers of those bidding wars. However, both of those guys are expected to sign pretty soon and it would really behoove the Astros to strike right after Thanksgiving to snag the guys they need before the market goes wild at the Winter Meetings.
Here are three moves that Houston really needs to make very, very soon.
Sign Victor Caratini
The catcher spot was an area of contention during the 2023 season. Houston had a really strong young catcher on the roster in Yainer Diaz, but the bulk of the playing time still went to veteran Martin Maldonado. Maldy was a great defensive catcher for a long time, so the Astros' affection for him is understandable. However, his decline was VERY rapid last season and unfortunately, Dusty Baker just could not quit him no matter what the eye test and numbers said.
Now that Maldonado is a free agent and Diaz has officially been declared as the primary catcher going forward, Houston needs a new backup catcher. One name that stands out as a particularly strong option is Victor Caratini.
Caratini's bat has kept him from winning a primary roster spot, but he has been pretty much the perfect back-up catcher during his career. His career .236 batting average certainly leaves something to be desired especially given his lack of power, but he knows how to draw walks and he grades out well as a game-caller and as a defensive catcher. For a backup, that is all anyone can ask for.
Caratini's experience behind the plate would not only give Houston some insurance in the event that Diaz struggles, but would give Houston the mentor for Yainer that they have been looking for without sacrificing too much production. Bringing in Caratini would also mean that the Astros SHOULDN'T be able to bring back Maldonado. Seriously, why can't they quit that guy.
Bring back Hector Neris
Arguably the biggest area of need this offseason for the Astros is the bullpen. They have multiple key bullpen arms hitting free agency and with their rotation having an older Justin Verlander and will soon have guys like Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia back who may need their innings managed coming off of injuries, having a stout bullpen needs to be a priority.
The most logical move to start building the bullpen back up is by bringing back one of their best arms in Hector Neris. In 71 appearances last season, Neris put up a 1.71 ERA and 2.5 rWAR with 77 strikeouts in 68.1 innings of work. He didn't have the postseason that anyone wanted to be sure, but there is no denying how much he helped out of the pen in 2023.
The problem, of course, is cost and that is where things get tricky. Neris had his $8.5 million contract option convert into a player option last year and he subsequently declined that option in order to hit free agency. Given the year he had, there are going to be no shortage of suitors for the righty's services this offseason.
It won't be cheap and the specter of Rafael Montero's deal looms large, but the Astros need to bring Neris back. If you are Jim Crane, why be willing to bring back a guy like Verlander and pay him as much as you are if you aren't willing to shore up the bullpen behind him? That is how the team SHOULD look at it, although whether or not that happens remains to be seen.
Trade for Dylan Cease
This is a tougher one to see happening, but it would be a huge boon to the Astros if they were able to swing a deal for Dylan Cease ahead of the Winter Meetings. We know for certain that the Astros like Cease as they pushed to acquire him at the trade deadline in 2023. However, the question at the moment is how reasonable are the White Sox being with their price tag and are the Astros willing to pull the trigger.
Getting a deal done for Cease right now is tricky because Houston already offloaded prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in order to bring Justin Verlander back which significantly hurt Houston's minor league depth. However, the Astros do still have guys like Jacob Melton, Joey Loperfido, and Spencer Arrighetti who could be very appealing to the White Sox and the Astros could (and probably should) include Jose Urquidy in any Cease deal as well.
In the end, it all comes down to the White Sox here. The Astros do seem to have the pieces to make a fair offer for Cease, but Chicago may be wanting to get a team to overpay for Cease. A guy like Cease who has two full years of cheap team control who also can be a very good #2/#3 starter is going to command a premium and the White Sox have a lot of problems to fix over there. There is also the problem that a big chunk of the league is looking for starting pitching right now which means it is going to be a seller's market especially when it comes to trades.
In the end, all the Astros can do is make their best offer. Adding Cease would solidify the rotation as a strength of the roster going into 2024. If it works out and the Astros are able to extend a couple of their other key pieces, they can look to try and keep Cease around beyond 2025. If not, they can re-evaluate things when the time comes without having to commit big dollars or years to him.
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