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3 mistakes the Astros absolutely cannot afford to make at the Winter Meetings
The Astros need to make sure they don't screw things up at the Winter Meetings if they want to keep competing at a high level in 2024.
The Houston Astros' rumor mill has been very quiet this offseason so far. Other than the drama surrounding Dusty Baker's retirement and the subsequent search for his replacement, there has been little in the way of news regarding free agent or trade chatter with Houston beyond some wishful thinking regarding trading for Dylan Cease.
Some of this is because the offseason market as a whole has been pretty quiet so far as the league awaits the fates of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Once at least one of those guys signs, things should accelerate fairly quickly as the teams with money that are eliminated from those chases spend their dollars elsewhere. However, a bigger issue is that the Astros don't have much in the way of payroll space or prospect capital to get much done this offseason. Right now, betting on a pretty quiet offseason in Houston seems like the smart bet.
However, that doesn't mean that there is no hope for Dana Brown to make some moves and with the Winter Meetings starting early next week, Houston's strategy this offseason should become more clear. That said, the Astros don't have much room for error this offseason, so here is a look at the mistakes the Astros need to avoid making once the Winter Meetings get started.
Astros Rumors: The Astros need to avoid signing Martin Maldonado again
We are going to beat this drum until Maldonado is for sure not going to be on Houston's roster next season. Was Maldy a fine player for a long time and does he know this Houston pitching staff very well? Absolutely. However, he was one of the worst players in baseball in 2023 and despite that, Houston's affection for his intangibles was costly last season as he was given far more playing time than he should have been.
With the Astros already rumored to be interested in a reunion with Maldonado, Houston needs to find a different back-up catcher to protect themselves from themselves. With Houston going with Espada as their new manager, he is likely to have some affection for Maldy as well and that threatens to take playing time away from the strictly superior Yainer Diaz. If Houston wants to sign Maldonado as a coach or advisor, that could be great. Just sign Victor Caratini or someone else as a back-up to Diaz and avoid Maldy taking the field again.
Astros Rumors: Trading Framber Valdez or Alex Bregman would be a mistake
Houston's trade options this offseason have been generating some buzz of late and with good reason. With the free agent market looking like it is going to rather pricey yet again and Houston having little in the way of free cash, getting creative on the trade market makes a ton of sense and Dana Brown's history with the Braves could really help Houston here.
However, one option that has been batted around this offseason in the media has been the possibility that the Astros could trade one or both of Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez. Bregman is entering the final year of his contract and his production has dipped while coming to terms on an extension with Framber has proven difficult, so trading these guys isn't without merit. However, the Astros still should avoid moving either one of them.
The fundamental problem is that Houston, at least at the moment, has a short-term competitive window they have to take advantage of. Justin Verlander is nearing the end of his career, Jose Altuve is getting older and is without a new contract, and there is a real chance that Kyle Tucker joins Valdez in free agency after the 2025 season. Given that Houston already struggled to win the division this year and still have the Rangers and Mariners to deal with going forward, any moves that could hurt the team in the short-term should be viewed with extreme skepticism.
Moreover, moving Bregman and/or Valdez is likely to introduce new problems for the Astros in 2024. Zach Dezenzo looks like he could be Houston's third baseman of the future, but he needs more time in the minor leagues and the Astros would probably prefer to upgrade at least one rotation spot as it stands now. The Astros getting rid of their starting third baseman and arguably their best pitcher just introduces new problems with uncertain answers in the short and long-term. If Houston is somehow out of it at the trade deadline, then sure...look hard at making some trades. Just don't do it this offseason.
Astros Rumors: Houston cannot let Hector Neris go without a fight
One free agent that isn't getting enough attention at the moment is reliever Hector Neris. This isn't that surprising as non-closing relievers are often overlooked, but Neris was an absolute stud for the Astros in 2023. In 68.1 last season, Neris struck out 77 batters while posting a 2.5 rWAR and a 1.71 ERA. In short, the Astros don't win the AL West last season without Neris in the bullpen, period.
Unsurprising, Neris declined his player option and is likely to get a significant raise going into 2024. There are going to be teams interested in having him as their closer and there are going to be teams that want him to do exactly what he did with Houston last season. While bullpen arms are yet again the deepest pool of players in free agency this offseason, Neris is in the top tier of the relief arms available and will have no shortage of suitors.
The Astros simply cannot afford to let Neris sign elsewhere without making a strong push to bring him back. Houston's bullpen has been ravaged with Neris, Phil Maton (who they should also try to bring back), and Ryne Stanek all becoming free agents and that leaves the Astros in real need of rebuilding their relief staff. Given Verlander's age and the injuries to key starters, Houston simply has to have a strong and deep bullpen going into 2024.
Assuming that it is true that owner Jim Crane could be convinced to spend a little more than usual, Neris is more than a worthy target. He isn't going to come cheap, but his salary demands are still going to be less than signing a decent starter or outfielder is going to cost and bringing him back would shore up what is shaping up to be the Astros' biggest weakness going into next season.
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