3 Houston Astros prospects who should not be traded and 2 who should

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The Houston Astros have done pretty well this year as they look to defend their title, but they have had their fair share of difficulties along the way. Key free agent departures have been missed this year and injuries to guys like Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Lance McCullers Jr., and Luis Garcia have caused their own problems. All of that means we could see a rather busy trade deadline out of Dana Brown and the Astros this year.

The specifics of what sorts of moves Houston will need to make have yet to fully reveal themselves, but it is clear that Houston won’t be able to stand pat at the trade deadline. The Rangers, Angels, and Mariners should be pretty good to really good the rest of the way and are going to be motivated to make their own roster improvements.

With the Astros having far from a perfect roster nor do they have any no-brainer prospects that they could promote to give a boost, they are going to have to look outside of the organization for help. That means that Houston will have to part with some minor leaguers to bring in help for the big league roster and the costs could be significant, so tough choices have to be made.

In an ideal world, the Astros would be able to keep all of their better prospects, but you have to give up something to get something. Here is a look at a few players the Astros should try to trade and others that they should keep around.

Trade: Forrest Whitley - RHP

Forrest Whitley has been a pitching prospect of some renown for a long time now. It wasn’t that long ago that he was one of the best prospects in all of baseball. However, things have gone downhill for him since then as m ultiple injuries including Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2021 season along with a chunk of the 2022 season and a lat injury that is going to keep him out for a few months this year. Putting all of that on top of a 50 game suspension for a positive drug test for stimulants back in 2018 has taken a lot of the shine off of him.

Whitley is still an immensely talented guy and while the Astros seem to be eyeing a move to the bullpen for him once he is healthy again this year, he may have more value to a team that thinks they can keep him healthy and use him as a starter. That might be a pretty narrow bandwidth of landing spots, but that might be better than hoping that he can provide anything for Houston in the big leagues at this point.

Keep: Drew Gilbert - OF

Things in the Astros’ infield are largely settled in the near-term, but the same cannot be said for the outfield. Don’t get us wrong, Jake Meyers and Corey Julks are at least mildly interesting, but neither are likely to have the same upside as one of the Astros’ top prospects, Drew Gilbert. He does a lot of things well, although his hit tool plays up more because of being a high energy guy and not because he hits the ball consistently hard thanks to raw physicality.

Guys who can consistently get on base and produce at the plate while also being good enough to play all three outfield positions are tough to find. Will Gilbert be a 30+ home run guy? Probably not, but his all-around game should make the entire team better when he is in the lineup. Houston has several outfield prospects of note in their system, but Gilbert is the best of the bunch and the Astros should hang on to him.

Trade: Pedro Leon - OF/2B

Pedro Leon is a weird prospect as he has a ton of raw physical tools and a high walk rate which are usually good signs. However, his hit tool lags behind his tools and his approach at the plate yields a lot of strikeouts in addition to the walks. Leon has a strong throwing arm and is a plus runner, but there isn’t a refined part of his game that one can point to and hang their hat on at the moment.

These are the types of guys are the ones that can be very tantalizing lottery tickets in trades. Leon isn’t a guy that is a low-A flyer type, he has actually produced a bit in Triple-A and is maybe an adjustment or two away from being a productive big leaguer. That proximity to the majors makes him a better fit in a lot of trade packages that could yield a real return for Houston especially given how many outfield prospects they have.

Keep: Ryan Clifford - OF

We have mentioned how outfield-heavy the Astros’ system is right now, so it does seem a little weird to call for keeping another one, but Ryan Clifford’s power is enticing enough to keep him around for a while longer especially given how well he started in low-A in 2023. Clifford will certainly swing and miss a good bit like a lot of power hitters, but he does possess good strike zone awareness at the very least which should help him improve as he ascends the minor league ranks.

In Clifford’s case, this is a bet on potential upside vs. expected return in a trade involving him. He isn’t likely to command a big return as it stands right now because he is far from a perfect prospect. However, there is some big time potential in that bat of his without the type of severe strikeout concerns (although there are some) that a lot of power hitting prospects have. Holding him for the moment gives Houston the chance to see exactly what they have in him as he moves up the minor leagues and potentially getting more value out of him down the line.

Trade: Spencer Arrighetti - RHP

The Astros don’t have much left down in the farm system anymore when it comes to arms, but Spencer Arrighetti is fairly intriguing. He has a mid-90’s fastball that can go a tick higher than that, a sweeping slider that is an out pitch for him, and a curveball and changeup that lag behind his first two offerings. Altogether, that package has led to a lot of strikeouts and getting promoted all the way to Double-A.

However, there are issues here. A combination of effort in Arrighetti's delivery and command questions has more than a few people thinking that Spencer’s future is in the bullpen where his stuff can play up. That said, his stuff is good enough that a team may value him more than that and would want to keep seeing if he can start long-term. If that opportunity presents itself with a team that has the time to wait and see if Spencer can pan out as a starter, the Astros should jump on that if the return helps them in 2023.

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