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3 dark horse candidates for the last spot in the Astros' Opening Day rotation
The Astros have some important decisions to make with their rotation this spring.
The Houston Astros' 2024 rotation is in a bit of a weird spot at the moment. Four spots are basically locked up with Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and (probably) Jose Urquidy. However, the last spot(s) look to be very much up in the air albeit with some favorites to win entering spring training this year.
JP France and Hunter Brown are going to be given an opportunity to win a spot to be sure. However, France doesn't have the type of swing and miss stuff that projects well most of the time and Brown certainly misses bats and can throw hard, but he gassed badly in the second half last year and it is unclear as to whether he can produce over the course of a long season.
Complicating matters is that the Astros could entertain going with a six man rotation ($) especially early on in 2024. Verlander is older and may need his innings managed and keeping all of their rotation arms fresh for late in the year has a lot of value.
With that in mind, here is a look at some of the more unlikely guys that could figure into the Astros' rotation mix in 2024. These are guys that may not stay in that spot for good or have other questions that could make them underdogs, but who also have a realistic chance especially if they play well this spring and Houston does indeed opt to go with a six man rotation to start the season.
Forrest Whitley
Yes, yes...the Astros have been clear that they are going to try Whitley out in the bullpen this year and frankly, there are a lot of good reasons to do that. Whitley's struggles in a starting role especially when it comes to actually staying on the field are well-documented. Having Whitley pitch in shorter stints long-term certainly looks like the absolutely correct decision and potentially a fruitful one considering how Whitley's already impressive stuff could play up in the role.
However, don't sleep on Whitley seeing some action as a "starter" early on in the season if the Astros do decide to go six deep there. One way that the Astros could choose to go about using an expanded rotation is to have bullpen games every sixth day. With Whitley, he could still pitch multiple innings, but not go the full five or six and give way to the rest of the bullpen after that.
If this were to happen, it wouldn't be a long-term strategy in all likelihood. Whitley's track record of health (or lack thereof) is enough that he probably only needs to be on the mound for an inning at a time, but this arrangement could work for a month or two while guys like Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. finish getting healthy,
Colton Gordon
Heading down to the minor leagues, we have lefthander Colton Gordon who doesn't get the love he probably deserves from prospect evaluators. Houston's eighth round pick in the 2021 draft made waves immediately upon making his pro debut and he made his way all the way to Triple-A in 2023 while posting a 4.14 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 128.1 innings of work.
Gordon is a weird one because he had Tommy John in 2021 and since returning, he hasn't thrown the ball particularly hard and his ability to throw strikes took a step back. However, the strikeout numbers have been a big surprise as his lower slot has made all of his offering hard to pick up and his fastball play up when he hits the top of the strike zone or just above it.
There are some issues with Gordon getting a rotation spot, however, First, he isn't on the 40 man roster yet, so going with him would necessitate a 40 man roster move, starting his service clock, and could potentially give the early edge to those candidates that are already on the 40 man based on the backend roster/service time logistics alone.
That said, if the Astros are strictly looking at who are the team's best five/six pitchers this spring and going with them, Gordon is going to be in the running. His stuff may not jump off the page in terms of velocity, but hitters can't seem to figure him out and that, at the end of the day, is the data that matters the most.
Spencer Arrighetti
Finally, we come to Spencer Arrighetti who has been in call-up and trade conversations seemingly forever. In an Astros farm system that is very light on starting pitching prospects with upside, Arrighetti stands out thanks to his velocity ticking up as a pro and a hard slider/sweeper that has served as an out pitch for him.
For the past two seasons, Arrighetti has established himself as a guy that can rack up the strikeouts, but some questions remain. He walks too many batters, there is a real question as to whether or not he has a third big league pitch, and his results in the minors are pretty meh overall beyond the Ks as he posted his second straight ERA in the mid 4 range last season.
A few things have to go right for Arrighetti to get actual consideration for an Opening Day rotation spot. First and foremost, he has to show up and pitch well including finding the strike zone more. Second, it would be helpful if the Astros committed early to the six man rotation as that just provides an extra spot that he could vie for. Finally, he is a guy that really needs to show that he has an offspeed pitch that can get big league lefty hitters out.
Assuming all of that happens, the only question is whether or not Houston is willing to add him to their 40 man roster not unlike the issues with Gordon. General manager Dana Brown has already gone on the record as saying that the team likes Arrighetti's arm and see him as a future rotation piece which certainly can't hurt his case. If Hunter Brown and/or JP France have rough springs or there are injuries that pop up anywhere in the rotation, all eyes will be on Arrighetti to see if can seize the opportunity.
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