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3 buy low trade candidates for the Astros this offseason
The Astros have gotten more than their money's worth on buy low trade candidates over the years. Let's look at three that could end up in Houston this off-season.
With a shallow farm system and an owner reluctant to exceed the CBT, as incredible as it would be to see the Astros land a massive name like Luis Robert Jr. or David Bednar, it's more likely any trades the Astros make would be fliers.
Here are 3 buy low trade candidates for the Astros this offseason
Houston has a propensity for nailing the buy-low trade candidate. From waiver claims like Will Harris and Collin McHugh to quiet trades like Mauricio Dubón, the Astros do well when acquiring cast-offs, blocked talent, and underachievers with untapped potential.
So who might be available this offseason? Let's take a look at three buy low options for the Astros heading in to 2024.
#1 Cal Quantrill
Coming into 2023, Cal Quantrill had a career ERA of 3.54. From 2020-2022, Quantrill recorded a 3.08 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His 4.08 FIP in that time did show his ERA was likely a little buoyed by some good fortune, but nonetheless, Quantrill was a very solid MLB starter the first four years of his career.
Disaster struck for Quantrill in 2023. Pitching for a Cleveland team loaded with young arms coming up, Quantrill likely pitched himself out of any future plans the Guardians once had for him. Quantrill made 19 starts, posting a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
He looked nothing like the pitcher he had been for three years prior. Which makes him the perfect buy low candidate. He's under contract for two more seasons, and with some tweaks to his arsenal, could unlock the pitcher of old.
His sinker and cutter got rocked in 2023. He threw his curveball a career-high 11% of the time, but even still, that's a pitch that needs to be thrown more. And he should bring back the slider he ditched after 2021.
With more curves and sliders, his fastballs would play better. Again, he's probably not going to win a Cy Young, but he's better than a 5.24 ERA. He'd provide the Astros some much needed pitching depth as Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia rehab, and could even make an arm like Jose Urquidy expendable in trades elsewhere. With Quantrill believed to be on the move, this is a call worth making.
#2 Brady Singer
Brady Singer was once a top-100 prospect for the Royals, but he's just never been able to put it together with consistency. His 2020 and 2022 seasons showed the promise he once had, but 2021 and 2023 were nightmares for the young arm.
Singer finished this season with a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, nearly 2.5 earned runs per game more than his 2022 ERA (3.23).
His sinker was hit hard, recording a -12 run value. Last year his sinker had a run value of 4, but 2021 had a -11 run value. His year-to-year fluctuation is staggering.
Even this year his monthly splits were wildly different. In nine starts in March/April and September/October, Singer posted an absurd 8.61 ERA. From May to August, his ERA was a much more palatable 4.24.
A move from a franchise as disfunctional and inept at developing talent like Kansas City to a baseball development powerhouse like the Astros could be all he needs. He's only 23 and would come with three years of team control. He's a perfect buy-low candidate for a Royals team desperately needing big league ready talent (Jake Meyers, Corey Julks, etc.).
#3 Adam Cimber
From 2018-2022, Adam Cimber was a walk/hard-contact limiting groundball pitcher that posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
In 2023, Cimber imploded. The submariner spent most of the season on the 60-day IL, but posted a 7.40 ERA from March-June. June in particular was unkind to Cimber, as he allowed 10 earned runs in only 5.2 innings.
While he wasn't the wipeout reliever he had been previously, Cimber had a respectable 4.20 ERA across his first 16 appearances.
He threw his four-seamer more than ever this year, and it got crushed. Opponents hit .382 on his four-seamer, and it was worth a run value of -6. While his slider also uncharacteristically got hit hard, if Cimber went back to the pitcher of old and threw his sinker (run value of 6 in 2023) more than his four-seam, he's the epitome of a low-risk, high reward move.
With the Astros needing to rebuild their bullpen, an low-cost arm like Cimber could be a great way to do it.
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