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2 Truths and 1 Lie About the Houston Astros
Coming off of their blowout loss on Sunday Night Baseball, the Astros are currently 7-9. Over the course of a 162 game season, takes will fly, and when a team has been as successful as the Astros have recently, fans will search for anything to complain about.
With 90% of the games still to be played, there is plenty of time to right the ship for Dusty and the Astros.
With that being said, the Astros have displayed some things through 16 games that may be trends moving forward. Let’s examine 2 truths and 1 lie about the Astros.
Truth: Depth is an issue
The Astros may be the reigning champs, but until Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley return, depth is a problem. Altuve is irreplaceable, though Mauricio Dubon is doing his best to fill in and is surprisingly leading the team in bWAR.
While Martín Maldonado isn’t employed for his bat, the Astros are somehow getting worse production at the plate when he sits. Yainer Diaz and César Salazar are hitting a combined .217 with 2 RBI and a .547 OPS.
David Hensley was supposed to play a utility role, but the former on base machine is hitting a porous .179 with zero extra base hits and 15 strikeouts to only five walks.
Jake Meyers has remained anemic at the plate, hitting only .160 and teams are running on his arm at will. With Chas McCormick battling vision issues, can the Astros withstand Meyers as their center fielder?
Yes, missing Altuve and Brantley is a big deal. Both are elite bats that will jumpstart the offense. But what if another player went down upon their return. Houston can’t just rely on Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker to drive in a combined 250+ runs.
They need some contributions from their bench bats as their stars work their way back and others (Bregman and Abreu) find their groove.
Lie: Pitching is a problem
The Astros chose to let Justin Verlander walk, and after a few poor outings, some are sounding the panic alarm. The 13 arms that have thrown a pitch have combined for a 3.48 ERA this year with a 1.3 WHIP.
In only a 16 game sample size, stats remain unsustainably high or indescribably low. Luis Arraez is still hitting .471 for the Marlins. Meanwhile Alex Bregman is below the Mendoza line.
Six starters all have sub 1.00 ERAs. Cristian Javier’s is 4.24.
Pete Alonso is on pace for 81 home runs. Yordan is on pace to drive in 203 runs. Ok, maybe that part actually happens…
The point is, it’s way too early to sound the panic alarm.
The Astros had the best bullpen on the planet by a wide margin last season. Ryan Pressly was totally un-hittable in October. Do we think his ERA will stay at 8.44?
After Javier was one of the best pitchers in the game last season, with a completely untouchable repertoire, do we really think he will continue to get hit while waling only 1.1 batters per nine.
Luis Garcia has proven himself to be a reliable fourth/fifth starter in the bigs and just threw five scoreless on the road in the ALDS, and now he just can’t get outs after dominating the WBC?
The Astros arms are just fine. As the law of averages kicks in, we’ll see again just how good this pitching staff is.
Truth: They’re in for a fight in the AL West
Even as the notoriously slow starting Astros begin to pick up steam, they are in for a fight down the stretch this season. The rest of the AL West is markedly better than years’ prior.
The Texas Rangers currently lead the division at 9-6, and if their rotation stays healthy, they aren’t going away. The hundreds of millions they’ve spent in free agency the last two offseason will continue to pay dividends.
The Mariners are second at 8-8, and are improved from the scrappy bunch that played Houston harder than any postseason opponent. As Julio Rodriguez gets going, watch out in Seattle.
And the Angels are no longer to be ignored. They’re now much more than just Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.
Houston can no longer expect to just waltz over their divisional foes and win the West by 15 games. I still think Houston comes out on top, but it will be much, much harder than it has been the last six seasons.