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2 players the Astros should trade, 3 they should keep around
Houston could stand to shake up their roster a bit to plan for their future.
The Houston Astros are going to be a good baseball team in 2024. They may not win the division and the playoffs could even be a bit dicey given how strong the American League looks, but no one should think that the Astros, as they stand now, will throw up a stinker of a 2024 season. If they do nothing else at all this offseason, them being good is still almost a lock.
However, there are always ways to improve. Some changes could be geared towards fixing the "right now" issues on the roster while others could be geared towards planning for the short and long-term future of the club. We often measure success on a year-by-year basis, but there is something to be said for building an organization that can sustain success even if it costs some short term gains.
With that in mind, here is a look at some of the players that the Astros should consider trading in the not-so-distant future. The goal is to be somewhat realistic here. No, you won't find Yordan Alvarez as a "keep"; that isn't instructive, because duh. Also, no, you won't find any guys that just signed minor-league deals with spring training invites as "trades" because no one cares about that. Instead, the focus will be on known commodities and the decisions that the Astros should make for, hopefully, the overall health of the club going forward.
Players that the Astros should consider trading
Jake Meyers
Since the offseason started, Jake Meyers has been the subject of trade rumors, and with good reason. Kyle Tucker is a mortal lock for right field and Chas McCormick sure seems like he earned his spot in the outfield after posting an .842 OPS and nearly getting a 20/20 season last year. However, Meyers' profile is one that feels a bit more niche and may not fit in the Astros' plans.
Meyers is a terrific defender and no one should argue otherwise. That, in itself, has a lot of value. However, terrific defenders that hit .227 with limited offensive upside generally don't find themselves on the rosters of playoff teams. The teams that can best extract that value are ones that are payroll starved or are rebuilding on a budget, not teams like the Astros who are loaded everywhere and are heavily invested financially in competing in 2024.
Right now, the Astros are talking a tough game and publicly committing to playing Meyers in center this season. That is all well and good, but Houston has a lot of outfield prospects coming up right now AND they have also talked about adding a lefty outfield bat with speed. That doesn't feel like much of a vote of confidence, and if the Astros end up getting a decent offer for Meyers, they should jump at the chance to move him and bring in some talent for elsewhere on the roster.
Alex Bregman
Okay, this will make Astros fans mad and that is completely fair. Bregman has been a centerpiece of the Astros' roster since he arrived in the big leagues in 2016. He also just posted a 4.9 rWAR season in 2023, and the front office has already said that they are not looking to trade Bregman. However, completely closing that door seems like it could be very unwise.
While Bregman is still a productive player, a chunk of his value has been buoyed by his ability to draw walks and his defense. In recent years, he has turned into more of a 20+ homer guy instead of a 30 homer guy and a .260 hitter instead of a .280 hitter, like he was early on his career. Nearly across the board, his production has dipped over the last few seasons.
When you combine that diminished production with the fact that Bregman is almost certainly going to walk after the season, how much value would the Astros actually lose by trading him? They have Zach Dezenzo and Will Wagner in the minor leagues who are just waiting for an opportunity. If the Astros keep Bregman this year and let him walk, all they are going to get is a comp pick in the draft in return for their troubles. It may not feel great to trade a guy like Bregman, but dealing him could get a package that would go a long way towards restocking their farm system and potentially help offset some of the luxury tax penalties that they are set to incur.
Players that the Astros absolutely need to keep around
Framber Valdez
On the flip side of the trade coin, we have Framber Valdez. Now, sticking with a pitcher is notoriously risky, as they are the guys that are the most likely to break down. The laws of physics are not kind to the human arm. However, Valdez is a different situation altogether from Bregman, given that he is under control through 2025 and he doesn't have a real replacement coming from the minor league ranks.
All of the offseason rumors about a potential Valdez trade aside, trading the lefty stud now isn't the play. The Astros' pitching prospect depth is below average at best, and most of the rest of their rotation has age and/or injury concerns. The Astros have the right idea in trying to extend Valdez, because he is currently a lot harder to replace down the line, especially with the free agent prices for starters these days. Now, if we get to next offseason and more changes need to come, then maybe a trade makes more sense.
Jose Urquidy
While the Astros' rotation is in a relatively decent spot, there are still some questions remaining. Will Justin Verlander be able to make it through another full season? What will Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia looks like when they return? Who is going to step up and take that last spot in the rotation? Again, these are a lot of unknowns to start a season for a team that has the World Series as a goal.
While Jose Urquidy has his own warts and recent injury issues, the Astros need to hang on to him, given the state of the rest of the rotation. While he may not even be a No. 3 quality starter, he does provide some depth that Houston sorely needs to preserve. If all goes to plan and guys return healthy, he can still be a swingman/multi-inning reliever and still provide value. If things go sideways, then the Astros still have him in the fold to cover innings.
Mauricio Dubon
Finally, we come to Mauricio Dubon, whose spot on the Astros roster is a weird one. Dubon's complete unwillingness to draw walks and inconsistent power have relegated him to a utility role with Houston. However, he still managed to get almost 500 plate appearances last season thanks, in part, to Jose Altuve missing so much time. That alone is a reason to keep him around.
Once Dubon and the Astros finish the arbitration process, Houston needs to use him in the exact same way they did in 2023: as insurance and to rest guys that need it. Dubon can play basically anywhere on the field, so older guys like Altuve, Jose Abreu, or even Alex Bregman should have days off built in with Dubon around. Could Dubon have more value to a team that is willing to play him every day? Maybe, but the Astros have Dubon under control for the next three years, and having a guy with his skillset around when the biggest thing Houston needs to do is to protect against things going wrong seems like the smart play, especially since he is such a cheap payroll investment.
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