Nobody understands how the Astros could actually pull off this free agent move

Nate Pearson and Ryan "Daejon Jesus" Weiss alone won't cut it. The Houston Astros need a legitimate No. 2 starter behind Hunter Brown. The only problem? Those guys cost money, and Houston doesn't have much to throw around.

That would lead one to believe that a bounce-back candidate, a guy with an established track record but a poor 2025 campaign, might fit the bill. The name that best fits that bill is Zac Gallen. There's a problem, though. Are we really sure the Astros can afford him?

Zac Gallen is once again named a top fit for the Astros, but how can he possibly fit in their budget?

Per Spotrac, Houston is just under $27 million shy of the first luxury tax threshold of $244 million, while that sounds well and good, not all of that money is truly available to spend. The club will need to reserve some funds for in-season moves, and, of course, has more offseason needs than only a starting pitcher.

Last season, the Astros' opening day payroll was $220 million, but ended the season at $244 million, putting them $3 million over the tax line. If Houston wants to avoid being a repeat offender and getting taxed at a higher rate, that can't happen again.

So when Jim Bowden predicts that Gallen will end up with the Astros, something he's done several times throughout the offseason, the question we ask is how?

Bowden himself predicted a five-year, $135 million deal for Gallen at the outset of the offseason. That's a $27 million AAV, meaning the Astros' entire budget would be spent, and they wouldn't be able to address the depth issues on the position player side.

That prediction was also before Dylan Cease got about $30 million more than expected and before the Arizona Diamondbacks, Gallen's former club, gave Merrill Kelly $20 million per when most thought he was going to be in the $15 million range.

Simply put, five for $135 million seems like the absolute floor for Gallen, not the ceiling. Without several other dominoes falling, like some team mercifully taking on most of Christian Walker's contract, in addition to finding a trade partner for Jesus Sanchez, there's no possible way Houston can afford a contract of that magnitude.

And that's the rub. Houston doesn't have the assets to pull off a trade for a cost-controlled arm like Freddy Peralta or Joe Ryan, and they don't have the financial wherewithal to land Gallen or better in free agency. There's no other option that's top-of-the-rotation quality that will cost less money, which means they'll be forced to settle for less. That's what will truly cost them.