Nate Pearson's high-octane rehab showing is nothing but false hope for the Astros

Much of the Houston Astros' plan to build out their pitching staff over the offseason consisted of hopes and dreams. Certain dart throws, like Peter Lambert, have worked out better than anyone could have expected, but overall, there have been far more misses than hits. One of those shots in the dark we've yet to see, thanks to an elbow injury, former first-round pick Nate Pearson is on the comeback trail and should be rejoining the Astros soon.

Pearson's last rehab appearance turned some heads as his velocity spiked, topping out at 101.3 miles per hour. Houston has stated that they're building him back up as a reliever, reversing course on the offseason decision to try the flamed-out prospect in the starting rotation.

With a 5.86 bullpen ERA that is the worst in the sport, the Astros need all the help that they can get on that front. Adding a high-octane arm with a pedigree, even if his prospect luster has long worn off, seems like it can only help. Unfortunately, Pearson's actual performance between Corpus Christi and Sugar Land says the opposite.

Nate Pearson's rehab stint has featured the same issues that have plagued the Astros' bullpen all season

A big issue for the Astros, both in the bullpen and the rotation, has been the inability of the hurlers to consistently throw strikes. The pen is tied with the Kansas City Royals for the second-worst walk rate in the league at 13.2%. As a whole, the pitching staff has walked a whopping 228 batters as of May 14, the most in the majors and 26 more than the next highest club.

Pearson has suffered from the very same issue during his road to recovery. He's thrown 6 2/3 innings, while issuing 10 walks against nine strikeouts. The free passes have "helped" him to an 8.10 ERA. With the exception of 2024, walks have been an issue for the 29-year-old for his entire big league career. Last season's brief 11-game showing with the Chicago Cubs was one of Pearson's worst in terms of the base on balls, as he walked batters at a 13.3% clip.

Houston has already cut bait with a similar arm in Ryan Weiss, who was relegated to the bullpen to begin the year, and also struggled to throw strikes after a history of high walk rates. Given his track record and current performance, it seems logical that Pearson will do the same.

As much as the Astros would like to blame injuries for their pitching woes, Pearson was expected to play a role, with the early thought being he'd wind up in the starting rotation. Therefore, given his history and the history of others whom they've counted on, it's unsurprising that they're struggling to throw strikes, injuries or not.

Pearson lighting up the radar gun might be a fun story, but velocity alone isn't enough to get the job done. If he can't quickly prove that he can fix his control woes, he'll prove to be just another in a long line of mistakes that led the club to this dire situation.

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