MLB Draft expert believes Astros are shaping up to cause chaos in the first round

The Houston Astros might not be picking high enough in the first round to cause a seismic shift in the way experts believe the first round will play out, but Baseball America's Carlos Collazo believes that the club will be one of the draft's biggest chaos agents.

General manager Dana Brown's mission is clear: replenish the talent in one of the MLB's worst farm systems as he continues to balance contending with restocking the roster with young talent.

Baseball America's latest mock has the Astros selecting high school third base prospect, Xavier Neyens, an 18-year-old who's already listed at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds with super raw power that has room to grow even greater as he matures and fills out.

However, there are multiple other directions the Astros can go, and a variety of factors that make projecting their pick something of a fool's errand.

A confluence of factors has set up the Houston Astros to cause chaos in the first round of the 2025 MLB Draft

As Collazo points out, the Astros have preferred college bats recently, with their last three first-round picks fitting that bill. As the club looks to rebuild on the fly, that strategy makes some sense as the pathway to the bigs for a more polished college hitter is significantly more accelerated.

However, picking at No. 21 overall, going the college route means taking prospects with higher floors and lower ceilings. That eliminates much of the risk of a bust, but also doesn't scratch the team's dire need for a difference maker at the plate.

On the flip-side, the Astros have the fourth-smallest draft bonus pool and no second-round pick. This puts them in a position to select a premium high school talent who may be set on going the college route unless a big bag of money is thrown his way. Without a second-round commitment, it wouldn't be a shock at all to see the Astros deploy their resources in this manner.

That's why Baseball America's mock suggests six different alternatives to Neyens in their projection. With a farm system that has nowhere to go but up, Brown is truly free to find what he believes is the best possible option.

These factors all come together to form an incredibly complicated calculus that will keep fans, pundits, and rival executives alike in the dark, and can set up a situation where Houston either lands a player who can easily be fast-tracked into a big league role, or an incredibly high-ceiling, low-floor prospect who otherwise would be selected much higher if team's weren't scared off by his desire to go the college route.

The only thing that is certain when the Astros arrive on the clock at pick No. 21 is that they will stir up some chaos, and perhaps come out of left field with a pick no one expects.

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