Latest Nolan Arenado trade buzz proves Astros dodged a disaster

It may have been a minor detail in an otherwise unrelated article, but USA Today's Bob Nightengale dropping the revelation that Nolan Arenado's market has been ice cold for some time now shows that the Houston Astros might have caught a break.

Of course, Dana Brown and company shouldn't break their arms patting themselves on the back for a bullet dodged. The club actually did agree to a trade for Arenado, but now can breathe a sigh of relief that the eight-time All-Star blocked the deal.

Once one of the premier third basemen in the sport, Arenado, 34, made a living crushing baseballs while flashing the leather at the hot corner at a level that's on par with the very best in the game's history. However, a steady decline as he has gotten older that has sapped much of his power and a history of back issues that recently reappeared made him a risky bet to begin with.

Still very solid defensively, the glove work is Arenado's primary source of value these days, which would not mesh with an Astros team that's struggling to find offensive production amid Yordan Alvarez's struggles and injury, and Christian Walker looking like a serious free-agent bust.

Adding Arenado to the mix would've clogged the Astros' books through the 2027 season while not giving the team the offensive jolt they desperately need.

The Astros got lucky that Nolan Arenado blocked an offseason trade, allowing the team to find a superior option

The underlying numbers show that Arenado, who's still somewhat holding it together offensively with a 105 wRC+, is due for a precipitous decline. Most of his value with the bat is derived from his excellent plate discipline, walking 9.8% of the time while striking out just 11.0% through 40 games, his slugging percentage sits at just .396.

That continues a trend for the once-fearsome power hitter. His slugging has fallen from .533 in 2022, to .459 in 2023, and then to .394 last season. The data shows that he has actually declined further in this area so far in 2025.

Arenado's average exit velocity of 86.6 mph is in the 11th percentile. His barrel percentage of 3.9% sits in the 15th percentile, while his 33.1% hard hit rate is 16th percentile. All of this coalesces for an expected slugging percentage of .364, which again ranks near the bottom, placing in the 24th percentile.

Things will only get worse as he continues to age throughout the remaining years of his contract. In the meantime, the man the Astros actually have manning the hot corner, Isaac Paredes, has begun to heat up as his pull-heavy approach has taken full advantage of the Crawford Boxes, slugging .440 on the season.

Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good, and while there's a lot to criticize the Astros for given how they approached the offseason, they're lucky to have the good fortune of benefiting from Arenado's veto and the resulting opportunity it gave the 26-year-old Paredes who looks to be a cost-controlled piece of the club's future as well as a present-day contributor.

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