Jose Altuve projection just raised serious concerns about the Astros' roster

The Houston Astros didn't have much of a choice when they bestowed Jose Altuve with a five-year, $125 million extension two years ago. At the time, the face of the franchise was coming off a 4.1 fWAR season in 2023, despite being limited to just 90 games due to a fractured right thumb sustained during the 2023 WBC. The star second baseman posted a vintage .311/.393/.522 line, forcing the club to make him an Astro for life.

That deal didn't take effect until last season, and in that time, Altuve aged drastically. The diminutive slugger saw his OPS drop from .915 in 2023 to .790 in 2024 to .771 last year.

Now, he's being named as a top 2026 bust candidate due to the concerns raised by the underlying data. This isn't entirely surprising given that he's entering his age-36 season, but if the prediction comes true, it will have dire consequences for Houston based on the compounding impact with some of their other decisions.

Jose Altuve being named a top 2026 bust candidate could throw the Astros' season into peril

Last season presented a lot of reasons to be concerned about Altuve's battle with Father Time. He's become quite the free swinger, posting a fifth percentile chase rate. That's impacted his ability to hit the ball with authority, but it's not the only reason why his 26 homers look like a mirage. Altuve's bat speed ranked in the 18th percentile, yielding an 85.1 miles per hour average exit velocity (fourth percentile) and a 30.9% hard-hit rate (10th percentile).

While the actual production Altuve yielded with his .771 OPS was above average, that is also misleading. If you subtract his red-hot July when he posted a 1.055 OPS, he didn't meet that mark in any single month of the season, and his final two months were his worst of the year with a .695 OPS in August and a .680 mark in September.

Counting 2026, he's still owed $92 million over the next four years. Ouch.

Most contending teams can absorb a highly-paid, fading star, but for the Astros, this presents a real problem. Christian Walker's first season in Houston makes it seem like he's on the Jose Abreu track, Carlos Correa has been inconsistent in recent years and has become a perennial injury risk, and breakout players like Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers will have to prove 2025 was no fluke.

The likelihood is that at least one, if not more, of these questionable players falters. Because of the bloated contracts they possess and their self-imposed financial restrictions, Houston will be forced to rely on unproven players like Zach Cole and Brice Matthews to support Yordan Alvarez.

That's a scary proposition, but one that is all too realistic. Most projection systems have Altuve finishing in the .750 OPS range. That might not be enough, and it's possible that his actual performance could be much worse. If that happens, the Astros' playoff hopes could go up in smoke.