Joe Espada’s bullpen failure explains why he’s entering final days with Astros

If there is anything I hate, it is when people make declarative statements without backing it up with any hard data. It becomes about vibes more than actual concrete evidence. I have come out and criticized Joe Espada on a few occasions and felt it was high time to follow my own rule. It is time to offer one concrete example of why I dislike him as a manager. I hate how he handles the bullpen.

You could argue that the handling of the pitching staff is the most important thing a manager does on a day to day basis. Sure, the lineup card is more impactful, but unless the manager is really incompetent, those are not going to change drastically. Of course, there are some arguments there as far as Espada is concerned, but we will have to leave those for another day. Specifically, Espada relies on multiple inning relief outings more than any manager in baseball and it isn't even particularly close.

Obviously, there are some that would swear by such a thing. We should dispense with a couple of things first. The first argument for the need for multiple inning outings are the total number of relief innings needed. In other words, the starters aren't capable of going deep into games, so we need those innings from the bullpen. Obviously, that was true in March in April when the overall pitching staff was terrible, but they have been mediocre since then. They are currently 24th in innings per start, but it is probably closer to the middle of the pack since May 1st.

Five Astros relievers have 50 or more games pitched this season. Steven Okert actually leads the team in relief outings with 68 even though he is on the shelf. Josh Hader has 44 games pitched largely because he missed the first couple of months. He has been used exclusively as the closer which means minimal multi-inning outings. Let's see what the rest are up to.

There are a couple of things you need to know about these numbers. First, they don't include anyone with fewer than 50 games. It doesn't include the likes of Ryan Weiss, Kai-Wei Teng, Miguel Ullola, or Alimber Santa. All of them had a heavy dosage of multiple inning outings. Secondly, we only counted games where relievers recorded four or more outs. It does not count games where they went into a game mid inning and came out the next inning, but did not record more than three outs.

This is Espada's biggest fault as Astros manager, as this is why his bullpen management is a failure and needlessly costs Houston games.

The percentage of times a reliever finishes an inning and is asked to go out the next inning is considerably higher than shown above. Why does this matter? When relievers are called to come in mid inning to get out of a jam they expend a lot of adrenaline and energy getting out of that jam. I have studied A.J. Blubaugh in particular, his ERA is single inning outings was nearly 2,00. His ERA in those multiple inning outings was closer to 4,00. Most of those runs came in the second inning.

For instance, in last night's game, Blubaugh came in under that exact circumstance and gave up two runs in the subsequent inning. Enyel De Los Santos is arguably the worst reliever in the bullpen, but Espada tabbed him for a second inning last night and he gave up two more runs in that second inning. Two plus two equals four. The Astros lost 6-2. So, going with a different reliever in both circumstances doesn't guarantee victory. That's never how any of this works. It would have given you a greater chance for victory.

This is one of the reasons why I laugh when someone says a manager is worth ten or more games. It is patently absurd. There are instances where these gambles pay off and actually increase winning odds. Even when they fail it is not completely on the manager. We add up fractions and get to a small sum. That small sum might end up being around three to five games one way or the other. Obviously, we can look at lineups and pinch hitting/late inning replacement decisions as well. This is just one concrete example.

Using relievers in multiple innings is a lot like a heroin addiction. You are constantly chasing that dragon because when a reliever is used for multiple innings he is not available the next day. If you do that multiple times a game then you end up using different relievers that way the next game out. The cycle perpetuates itself. It also has long-term ramifications. Blubaugh leads the majors in relief innings. That obviously will have a long-term impact on his arm health. These are all things we start looking at when we start asking questions as to why the Astros have so many injuries.

Joe Espada looked like a good hire when he was first brought in. He said all the right things and had been Dusty Baker's right hand man during their championship run. It made sense. Unfortunately, being able to answer questions in an interview doesn't tell us much about how you would handle a bullpen when the pressure is on. Those are the risks when hiring a first time manager. You have no track record to go on. You only have what they say they would do. We've seen how Joe Espada handles a pitching staff and it simply isn't good enough.

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