Once Astros SS Jeremy Pena broke off negotiations with the team for an extension by hiring super agent Scott Boras, it seemed the writing was on the wall regarding any chance the team had of keeping Pena in the H long term.
Pena followed that up last season by posting a career best season. Pena posted career bests in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, BB, XBH, tied is career best in SB and had a career best in SB %. He did it despite playing a career low 125 games due to injury.
Pena began this season dealing with an injury, fracturing a finger while playing in the World Baseball Classic. He has dealt with two other injuries during the season that have seen him play a career low 104 games with 8 games remaining in the season. Despite that, Pena has put up numbers very similar to his breakout 2025 season. His 20 HR are the second highest of his career, having hit 22 his rookie season in 2022 as part of a World Championship team. He's tracking his second best AVG, OBP, OPS, has tied his career high SLG.
Pena has been the catalyst atop the Astros lineup, and when he is getting on base, the offense has looked entirely different. For a team that's offense is wholy dependent on Pena, Yordan and Paredes, those three players need to carry the freight. It starts with Pena, and it has for the past two seasons.
A recent six week slump only exacerbated Pena's importance to the Astros offense. When Pena is a non-factor, opposing teams are doing their best to pitch around Yordan Alvarez and make him a non-factor. Isaac Paredes has done his best to make teams pay for that (he now is second on the team with 88 RBI) but the offense often is empty after the Astros top 3.
Pena recently broke out of his slump in a major way, going 8 for 13 with a double, three homers, 4 RBI and 4 runs scored in Houston's most recent 3-game series with the Kansas City Royals. Houston won two of those three games.
The presiding sentiment hs been that the Astros will not be looking to meet Boras' demands for Jeremy Pena's next deal, and questions about if they knew they won't pay him, why haven't they maximized his value on the trade market, because there are a lot of teams, playoff level teams, that would love to get Jeremy Pena. Pena's value would be astronomical.
Can a clutch super hot streak be what turns the tide in the Astros' thinking? Could a big finish to the season and a team-carrying performance in the postseason convince Astros owner Jim Crane that Pena is the kind of star that he craves?
Might Pena be on the vergo of a crazy hot streak following his 6-week cold snap? If he is, and he can lead the Astros to the postseason and have a huge postseason (he's done this before), would Jim Crane change his mind in meeting that price? Could he convince ownership that he is every bit the big star that Crane has traded for in the past? Can he influence the team to believe that he should be right there next to Jose Altuve as the next Astros lifer, whose number will ultimately hang in the rafters with the other Astros all-time greats?
Crane is highly competitive. He wants to win, even when he may know he doesn't have the horses. He also isn't afraid to get his hands dirty when it comes to making moves for the team. He is well aware how much Pena means to the team, and how the team has no way of truly replacing him were he to leave after next season (or whenever the next season may be).
All-Star shortstops don't grow on trees. As much as Nick Allen has played better than expected, he is no replacement for Pena. Correa has wanted to come off SS for a couple years to move to 3B to ease the toll on his body. Mauricio Dubon will be a free agent this offseason, but despite his career season, he is still not in the same class as Pena. Not even close.
Trading Pena is waving the white flag for a year while you retool the organization. Not trading Pena knowing you have no intention of re-signing him is franchise malpractice. Signing him and keeping him with the team to be the next lifer in the line of Biggio, Bagwell and Altuve says that you are committed to winning, and you want to keep your star who is also a fan favorite to be one of the guys you continue to build around.
Pena, Yordan and Paredes are the three cornerstones of the offense. As much as they need more help around them, help doesn't replace a cornerstone. This offense is weak without JP3.
Could a key hot streak that leads the Astros to the postseason after a season of turmoil followed by continuing that hot streak in the playoffs and leading the team to a playoff series win (or two) force Crane's hand to make an exception to his contract rules and keep Pena in orange for his career?
It should. It better.
