How to rebuild the Astros pitching staff: who stays, who goes, new targets

As one of the hosts of AREA 45 on 95.7 The Fan in Houston (formerly Sportsradio 610), I've often been asked about the Astros biggest needs. For the last two seasons, my answer has been the same:

Pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, and pitching.

The Astros dynasty was built on great pitching, especially in the starting rotation. I still have a t-shirt from the 2019 season that featured Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zach Greinke. The Astros have had terrific pitching from other guys like Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., and Hunter Brown. Brown and Javier are the only ones who remain, and both struggled with injury this season. Brown threw just 107.1 innings, Javier just 63. Brown was effective (3.19 ERA), Javier (5.14 ERA) was not.

The Astros leader in wins (8), innings (155.2), starts (29) strikeouts (154) and pitching WAR (3.1) was Peter Lambert. Lambert was a castoff signing, then released after Spring Training, brought back on a minor league deal, and then called up to the big league squad April 17. Lambert was essentially a savior for the rotation most of the season. Zero people, Lambert included, had that on the bingo card.

The Astros need to make significant changes to the pitching staff for 2027. Here is how it should be built:

The starting five (or six):

Hunter Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Cristian Javier, Peter Lambert are the only ones who should be in the rotation as a given, and that is presuming the gains that Javier made towards the end of the seson (1.96 ERA in September) continue to improve. Javier also needs to be healthy.

They have some big "what if" type players in Mike Burrows, Ronel Blanco and Tatsuya Imai. All three should be getting a lot of time in with pitching guru Brent Strom both before and after the upcoming lockout. If either one doesn't want to put the time in with Strom, then they need to go. Ethan Pecko is another name to be in the mix for a starting spot, but further down the line. A strong spring could help him if the Astros don't get a solid veteran on the market.

Houston needs another proven, reliable starter. They dont necessarily need another ace (though it would be nice) because aces are expensive on the open market. They need a smart move to get a reliable, consistent starter.

Options include Michael King, Clay Holmes, Tyler Mahle, and Shota Imanaga. Imanaga is a very intriguing option as not only is he a solid lefthanded starter, but his presence as another Japanese player could be a help to Imai. Imai seemed to struggle without teammates to connect/relate to, leaving him feeling isolated and struggling to adapt to American lifestyle. Imanaga could essentially lead to two improved spots in the rotation. Imai showed terrific stuff, that was never his issue this season.

The Bullpen:

Josh Hader will remain as the closer. He was absolute nails this season. From there, the Astros have a lot of issues. How do we fill the six bullpen spots behind him?

The team seems to want to keep AJ Blubaugh in the bullpen, and his numbers suggest he is better suited to one inning relief work than multi-inning outings, so let's pencil Blubaugh into the pen as well. That's 2 out of 7.

At least one of the starters who doesn't make the rotation is a candidate for the swingman/long reliever role. That's 3 out of 7.

Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert and Enyel De Los Santos are all free agents. Of that group, the only one likely to return is Okert, who established himself in the "stopper" role for Joe Espada this season. Okert showed he can come into any situation, in any inning, and slam the door. Okert gives the team 4 relievers.

Bryan King's disasterous second half makes him a non-tender candidate, though the team may be open to bringing him back on a minor league deal and seeing if they can get him right at Sugar Land. He was a quality leverage arm for two and a half seasons before coming undone, he is worth the reclamation attempt if it can be done in the minors, but he is not a candidate to start next year in the pen.

Miguel Ullola has demonstrated better command since moving to the pen, and his high velocity stuff misses bats. He is inexperienced, and needs to work on keeping the ball in the park. However, he should be a guy that can pitch in middle relief and occasionally give multi-inning efforts when needed. He should get a legitimate chance for a spot.

Roddery Munoz, the team's Rule V pick from last season, had a very good year at Triple-A, and should get a chance to compete for a spot, as should Logan VanWey who pitched much better at the MLB level this season. They should at least get to compete for a job in the pen, along with what we presume will be a healthy Kai-Wei Teng.

However, the team needs a real replacement for Bryan Abreu as the primary bridge to Hader. A guy like Adrian Morejon would be perfect, though he will require a multi-year deal and some solid money considering his success and his age (he will be 28 in February). Kirby Yates could also be a good one-year option, as he was still very effective in his age-39 season in 2026. The bridge to Hader is one place the strength of the pitcher should outweigh the cost.

Crane seems to be an owner who understands locking down the back end of a game, even if he has gone about it the wrong way in the past (Rafael Montero deal, rejecting Abreu trade). Rebuilding the bridge to Hader is of serious importance.

They should bring in an established 2-3 type starter, legit 8th inning reliever, and then at least one depth starter with proven major league experience and one depth reliever who can handle middle innings work.

This team has shown itself to be ravaged by pitching injuries three consecutive seasons. There is no such thing as too much pitching.

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