Hidden trade deadline gem could be Astros key to taking AL West lead

The Houston Astros are miraculously still alive in the playoff chase, sitting just 2.5 games back of the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners for both the AL West lead and the final AL wild card spot. The club went 16-11 in June and, after a 12-20 start, has gone 31-25 since May 1. An optimist would say that the season is starting to feel like the 2024 campaign that saw them start 12-24 before gathering a head of steam heading into the All-Star break and ultimately winning the division.

If Houston wants to repeat history, it is going to need some help. The team has numerous holes that need to be filled, but perhaps none is more pressing than the starting rotation. That's where a look at the Detroit Tigers, should they sell, could be beneficial.

When it comes to Tigers' starters, all eyes will obviously be on reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. For the Astros, that would be a pipe dream. But Skubal's rotation-mate, Casey Mize, could be the boost Houston needs behind Hunter Brown.

Mize was named one of the 10 most intriguing trade candidates on playoff bubble teams, and pitching in Skubal's shadow means he hasn't gotten the shine he fully deserves. The 29-year-old has been limited to 12 starts and 65 innings due to right adductor inflammation that required an IL stint, but he's been great when healthy. So far, he's posted a 2.63 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 26.9% strikeout rate, and a 5.5% walk rate.

Casey Mize won't be cheap, but the Astros should pay the price to turn around the struggling rotation

The pitching staff as a whole was a big reason why Houston was stuck in quicksand to begin the season, and while the bullpen rallied in June behind the return of Josh Hader, the same cannot be said for the starting rotation once Brown came off the IL.

Brown has been great, but the collection of arms behind him inspires little confidence. Tatsuya Imai might be feeling more comfortable in Houston, but that still hasn't translated to consistent success as he's coming off a five-run, five-walk 1 and 1/3 inning performance on July 1 against the Minnesota Twins.

Beyond him, the Astros have seen Spencer Arrighetti regress hard, Mike Burrows continue to disappoint, and the end of the Kai-Wei Teng rotation experiment. Outside of Peter Lambert, an afterthought coming into the season, Houston has gotten very little consistency from its starters.

Mize would bring that and more as a legit No. 2 behind Brown. On top of that, the 2018 first-overall pick would fit in the Astros' budget. With a $6.15 million salary this season, he'd cost Houston a hair over $2 million for the final two months of the season. That'd certainly give the club a chance to stay under the all-important luxury tax threshold.

As an expiring contract, he'd also be a bit cheaper to acquire than other similar options like Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins or Reid Detmers of the Los Angeles Angels. As an added bonus, he wouldn't add any payroll complications for 2027 or beyond.

That's not to say that the Tigers will give the right-hander away. The Astros' shallow farm system and lack of impact young talent will make swinging any deal for a player of significance difficult. But if they can scrape together enough assets to entice Detroit, they'd be well-served by pouncing on Mize to form the kind of one-two punch in the rotation they'll need to separate themselves from the pack.

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