Houston Astros fans may not know this, but former MLB general manager Jim Bowden lives for October. In past years, while Astros fans were locked in on the team's playoff run, Bowden has been out here making curious free-agent predictions before any move actually happens. Given the strange feeling of the Astros not being in the ALCS or World Series, Bowden likely is part of the daily routine for Astros fans as they map out the offseason.
With time (and a lot of space) to waste, Bowden unleashed quite the free agency primer for The Athletic earlier this week. Bowden takes a look at the top 50 free agents of the offseason, listing potential hits as well as a contract projection for each player.
Bowden made use of the Astros as a fit for multiple free agents, but one of the more curious and accurate suggestions was that Houston could be in on Zac Gallen. Despite his struggles last season, Bowden has Gallen as his No. 11 free agent with a contract projection of 5 years for $135MM.
Zac Gallen could be the perfect fit for the Astros
Usually entering each season as a National League Cy Young favorite, Gallen had some concerning regressions last season. The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA in 192 innings pitched while striking out just over 21% of the hitters he faced. Striking out over 25% of the hitters he faced throughout his career, the swing-and-miss regression could be what set the stage for his struggles in 2025.
A glance through Gallen's metrics suggests he struggled with his non-fastball pitches last season. Every pitch except his fastball and changeup lost value last season. The Astros are known to be able to fix pitchers, and Gallen may just need a slight tweak before returning to his top-of-the-rotation form. The same reason why the Astros were connected to him at the MLB trade deadline is the reason why they likely will check in on him during the offseason.
Where the Astros would lose momentum as a potential suitor for Gallen is the idea that Bowden believes he could fetch a deal north of $125 million. If Gallen was in the market for a short-term deal with the opportunity to replenish his stock, the Astros are the team to circle. Anything beyond that, and it seems that the Astros would look elsewhere for reclamation projects.
