First round of 2026 mock drafts highlight Astros’ painful second half blunder

In the game of baseball, it is almost always bad to live in the middle. If you are among the worst teams and kinda know what you are doing, you will end up with a high draft pick and be able to reload your farm system to succeed in the future. If you are picking low, it is because you made it to the playoffs, and that is what it is all about. Unfortunately, the Houston Astros managed to do neither.

As the "best" of the non-playoff teams, the Astros had the worst draft lottery odds, and only playoff teams are picking below them, except the Mets, but that's because New York has a 10-pick penalty because of their spending. Not only will Houston miss out on the top draft talent, but they also don't even get to enjoy the fruits of that with a postseason run.

The first way-too-early expert mock drafts that came out after the draft lottery only underscored this reality. These rankings mean little this far out, but with Baseball America mocking Blake Bowen to the Astros and MLB Pipeline doing the same with Ace Reese, it is clear that Houston is going to have their work cut out for them.

By barely missing the playoffs, the Astros may have torpedoed their present AND their future

Now, Bowen and Reese are not bad players. Bowen is a toolsy prep outfielder from California who could go even higher with a strong spring, and Reese is a slugging college infielder with some hit tool and defensive questions. The world will not end if the Astros end up taking one of these two guys.

However, neither player is particularly exciting at the moment, either. If they end up playing better than their current rankings, the Astros simply won't have a shot at them. If they are worse, they will feel like the picks you make, knowing that you paid a cost to be a playoff team. In the end, Houston is going to have to either take a real risk in this spot or take a low ceiling, but safe option. Somehow, the Astros ended up with the worst of both worlds in a draft class that is deep at the top while allowing their rivals to get all the playoff fun and money.

Not all of the news about the 2026 MLB Draft for the Astros is bad. They already got an extra pick thanks to Hunter Brown placing high in Cy Young voting, and they will get another if/when Framber Valdez signs elsewhere, thanks to the qualifying offer. Again, things could technically be worse, but Houston put themselves in quite the awkward spot when it comes to reloading their farm system that desperately needs it if the Astros are going to be perennial contenders again.