Astros' Tatsuya Imai's $18M decision: money or happiness?

As normal people who aren't multimillionaires, it's practically impossible to envision the idea of turning dowm $18M for most any reason. Tatsuya Imai is not part of us 'normal people'.

Imai is a professional athlete. He qualifies as a 'rich'. He just finished his first year in MLB with the Houston Astros and made $18M. At 28 years of age, he still has plenty of baseball left in his career.

Imai's first season in the US didn't go as anyone hoped, not he or the team. He showed flashes of brilliance along with battles of self-confidence and some Steve Blass disease. He was also banished to the bullpen and treated like persona-non-grata for a large portion of the second half of the season.

Coming to the US as a major star in Japan gave the team expectations. His stated desire to not want to join the Los Angeles Dodgers (essentially the preferred destination for nearly every major Japanese star player) but rather to beat them endeared him to the Astros fanbase. His tremendous spring where he looked unhittable and drew rave reviews from teammates gave fans the excitement of a true 1-2 punch of Hunter Brown and Imai leading the Astros to a division title and perhaps a deep playoff run.

Many people, myself included, thought Imai would be AL Rookie of the Year. Then the regular season started, and the unraveling began.

At this point, I don't need to rehash Imai's troubled first season. Now that the season is over, the only question now remaining for Imai is will he opt in to the second year of his contract for another $18M, or was his first year such a terrible experience that he has no interest in year 2?

For the Astros, who paid a nearly $10M posting fee to sign Imai to a 3-year contract, clearly they see the talent and need to find a way to unlock it. Perhaps a full off-season and then full season with pitching guru Brent Strom will be the key to unlocking Imai's great stuff and helping him re-find his swagger.

The Astros will also need to figure out how to make Imai more comfortable in his American surroundings, because it was clear that was a problem for both him and them this past season. The multiple translators early in the season, the discombobulated routine, not having anyone else who spoke Japanese (and his not knowing english or spanish very well), it is easy to see why he felt isolated. It was surprising to see it affect his on field performance so much.

Imai was one of the biggest pitching starts in Japan, and to see him struggle through a season like this has left us with far more questions than answers. Some people see him as "too soft" mentally to be able to succeed here. There is certainly question about why he refused to throw some of his pitches when those very pitched looked tremendous in Spring.

The other side of that coin is if Imai was so unhappy with the way his season went, the way he felt away from home, and the way the team treated him that he is willing to forego the money and go back home to Japan. He wouldn't be the first player to give up the money for comfort or happiness, but it is a lot of money to give up.

Raidel Martinez is a pitcher for the Yomiuri Giants in NPB, Japan's top baseball league. In 2026, he made 1.2B Yen. Yes that's a B for billion. The USD equivalent is roughly $7.6M. The highest paid player in NPB made less than half of what Imai made in his first season with the Houston Astros. We are talking about life-changing money. People are willing to put up with a lot for that kind of cash.

But what if Imai was so unhappy, and then became distrustful of the team after it banished him to the bullpen to ensure he wouldn't reach any innings escalators for his contract (which began at 80 IP according to Spotrac)? What if he feels disrespected? His extreme lack of usage has had many people, including myself, wondering what the Astros are doing keeping him on the roster and refusing to pitch him. He took up a roster spot that the team could have used on a player that could have helped (because maybe they pitch better and because the team would likely actually use them).

Has he been so insulted that he would rather opt out and go home?

I say 'go home' because with a looming lockout in MLB, Imai could sign a 1-year deal back in Japan, rebuild his value where he is happiest, and then return the MLB the following year to chase the money again.

No one knows what is truly in store for MLB for 2027. It is certainly plausible teams will take a cautious approach to contracts until the new CBA is finalized. Players will not get paid while the lockout is active. If MLB has another disaster of a 60-game season, Imai would stand to lose $12M of the $18M in lockout. Hence it is possible he could make the same or more money for one season in Japan to re-find himself. At that point, he can decide if chasing the money is worth it for him. $7M isnt $18M, but you can live a pretty happy life making that.

As of now, Imai doesn't appear to have made a decision. That is telling in and of itself.

That Imai is so heavily considering if he wants to make more than double the highest paid Japanese player is very telling. It means that the idea of leaving is actively on the table.

It's too early to put a percentage on stay or go, but it is clearly in play.

Will he choose the money, or choose happiness back in Japan?

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