Astros receive high marks for future outlook despite devastating 2025 collapse

The Houston Astros' 2025 campaign did not end the way the club envisioned. Missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016 has the Astros at a major crossroads, and the path forward is still very much up in the air.

However, there's a belief that the bones of a contender are still present on the roster. Houston tried an intriguing and ultimately frustrating rebuild-on-the-fly strategy in 2025, and with the gains made, it is possible to squint and see that the window isn't completely shut.

That's exactly the position that Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) took when he ranked the Astros as the team that missed the playoffs in 2025 with the best chance to return to contention in 2026.

Astros ranked as the team most likely to return to contention in 2026 among those who missed the 2025 postseason

The primary reason for the optimism is the idea that the only reason the Astros are sitting home today was the siege of injuries the club ultimately couldn't withstand. In addition to the quantity of the injuries, who suffered them, and the duration of time missed were key factors that Bowden notes.

Bowden writes, "The Astros were pelted with injuries to way too many of their key players this season, including slugger Yordan Alvarez, closer Josh Hader and shortstop Jeremy Peña. They also had to deal with significant injuries to their rotation, as only Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez made more than 15 starts.

The club agrees with that assessment, and it is true that missing Yordan Alvarez for all but 48 games, as well as the untimely absences from Isaac Paredes and Jeremy Peña, put Houston in a bad spot down the stretch. So too did the injuries to many members of the starting rotation that were less concentrated but even more prevalent to the maladies the lineup had to endure.

You can also count the bullpen among the units that got bit by the injury bug at the worst possible time, with the likes of Kaleb Ort and Bennett Sousa joining Josh Hader on the IL at the worst possible time.

Still, the Astros aren't blameless in their unfortunate luck. Houston repeatedly mishandled injuries, which often exacerbated the problem, delayed returns, and even helped cause the injuries in the first place. Without fixing the issues going on with the medical and training staff, the injury concern will surely rear its ugly head again in 2026.

Still, there is reason for optimism. The core of hitters is formidable if healthy, especially with a full season from Carlos Correa and hopefully gains made by youngsters Cam Smith and Zach Cole. Top prospects Jacob Melton and Brice Matthews could also add to that mix at some point next year.

The Astros do have some serious issues to address with their rotation, though. Framber Valdez is almost assured to be suiting up somewhere else, and if and when that happens, the collection of arms behind Hunter Brown that is both healthy and productive is paper-thin.

Still, if they address that concern in the offseason, it's not unreasonable to think that they could be back in the saddle and heading towards the postseason once more.

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