Astros prospect’s unique skill set helped him beat the odds, but tough flaws remain

So far, so good...but there is work to do.
Feb 18, 2026; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros outfielder Lucas Spence (89) poses for a photo during media day at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches.  Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Feb 18, 2026; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Houston Astros outfielder Lucas Spence (89) poses for a photo during media day at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Everyone loves an underdog story, and it is hard to start lower on the totem pole than an undrafted free agent. Players who weren't drafted have gone on to stellar careers in the past, like Larry Walker and Bobby Bonilla, but the odds are usually not very good. However, Houston Astros prospect Lucas Spence is trying to be the next success story.

After playing college ball at the University of Southern Illinois-Edwardsville, the only team that invited Spence to try out as an UDFA was the Astros. Spence rewarded Houston's faith by hitting his way to Double-A last season and becoming the Astros' 18th-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline.

While there is a lot to like with Spence and he could easily work out, he is also a reminder that a hitter's complete profile matters, and Spence has a lot of work to do to show that he can overcome his shortcomings.

Lucas Spence is a fun Astros prospect story, but reality could prove to be very cruel

Spence is a hitter that would have been adored in the late 1980's or something. He simply does not chase out of the zone and uses his approach, contact hitting ability, and speed to do damage. Such players can be very fun and can certainly succeed in MLB, but it is a much tougher profile than most fans realize to make work. There is a reason why we remember players like Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn. Not only were they great players, but they were also outside the norm even when they were playing.

In the modern game, Spence's relative lack of power is going to be a hurdle. There are guys like Steven Kwan and Caleb Durbin finding success, but the path to the majors is littered with the dead careers of prospects who could hit a bit, but didn't impact the ball enough or have enough real defensive value. Combine that with Spence having an issue with getting beaten by breaking stuff thrown for strikes, and you have some real questions to answer.

So far, it seems like the Astros are simply letting Spence do his thing and see what he can turn into. There is nothing to lose in giving him some room to grow because, again, there is a chance that his advanced approach at the plate could turn into a real asset, assuming he can punish all strikes. Of course, it would be a lot easier if he could unlock some more power along the way.

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