Astros’ playoff success is possible, not probable — but MLB history says don’t dismiss it

You will have to excuse my predilections in these moments. My expertise is history and statistics. So, when you combine those two things, my mind immediately goes to the history of these moments. The Houston Astros are officially the worst team to make it to the postseason in a full 162 game season. Ironically, the also are included in a group of teams in shortened seasons to struggle and make the playoffs.

Below is a brief history of some of those teams and what they ended up doing in the playoffs. The upshot here is that the regular season performance was not necessarily a great predictor of what would happen in the postseason. The Astros have been on the other half of that (2019 most pronounced), but this time they get to hunt from the other end.

1973 New York Mets (82-79) - The Mets had an aging Willie Mays that almost encapsulated the general idea of the team. It was a struggle for Mays and the Mets, but they had enough magic to advance to the World Series against the Oakland Athletics. They would fall to the Oakland A's dynasty in 7 games.

2005 San Diego Padres (82-80) - The Padres were swept in the NLDS that season, so it was a quick one and done and most people would expect.

2006 St. Louis Cardinals (83-78) - The Cardinals would go onto make an improbable World Series run after falling to the Astros in 2005 and beating them in 2004. The Cardinals would hardly be a dynasty by any reasonable definition, but with Albert Pujols still in tow they managed to cobble enough together to win the World Series in spite of their record.

2025 Cincinnati Reds (83-79) - The Reds also did not advance in the postseason as they qualified as a wild card and quickly were dispensed in the three game wild card round.

So, you have two teams that went all the way to the World Series and two teams that were bounced immediately from the playoffs. In other words, there are no trends to hang onto there. The Astros officially have the worst record of any full season team in the playoffs. Yet, their path to glory is actually not that arduous. They get a series with the 84-78 Chicago White Sox where all three of the best of three game series takes place at Daiken Park. If they get through that series, then they get the 85-77 Cleveland Guardians. That is not exactly a murderer's row of teams.

The task gets much harder once you get to the ALCS. The worst team on the other side of the bracket is the 87-75 Boston Red Sox. However, I should point out that the Astros were a collective 19-12 against the five AL playoff teams this season. In other words, stranger things have happened in baseball history.

So what does this mean for the present day Houston Astros, the first team to win a full season division at exactly .500? He is what we can gather:

On the one hand, the final series had numerous clutch moments and a team that finished the last two games on a 22-2 heater. On the other hand, this is still not a good baseball team by sheer definition. Both things can be true at the same time. We can be proud of the boys for pulling it out down the stretch, and we can also be realistic about what this team is.

As fans, we get the luxury of doing both. We can throw on our Astros gear and treat this like any other postseason where we live and die by that game's results. We can also look at the cold, hard facts that this wasn't a good baseball team this year. Jim Crane and his decision making cadre must do the later. They cannot get caught up in the wave of emotion of a team coasting into the postseason on fumes. For them, that can wait another few days or even up to a couple of weeks. For now, they get to enjoy the ride too.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow