Astros offense feels uncomfortably familiar one year after coaching staff overhaul

Numbers are an interesting thing because every statistic has context. Statisticians usually prefer larger samples. They are more accurate in general and they generally describe more. Moreover, it is easier to replicate them which means they are far more relevant. However, a full season's worth of numbers can be deceiving because it covers up the ebbs and flows we see in every season from a statistical standpoint.

That can be seen clearly when we look at the Astros offensive numbers. I highlight this because Jim Crane and the decision makers will have to evaluate everything when the season is finally over. It is easy to point the finger at a pitching staff that struggled for much of the season, but that ignores what has been going on with the offense.

In particular, the offense and pitching staffs have been mirror images of each other for much of the season. March and April could not have been worse for the Astros as they surrendered nearly six runs a game on the mound. That has a way of skewing the overall results, so you might be tempted to call the Astros overall pitching horrible when they were legitimately average to above average from May 1st on.

The same could be said of the hitting in reverse. In March and April, the Astros were among the best hitting teams in baseball. Of course, that was covered up by a historically horrible pitching staff, but in the beginning we were singing the praises of Victor Rodriguez and the hitting staff. The Astros were more patient at the plate and were hitting with more power. The combination had them averaging more than five runs a game.

Below is a table comparing the 2025 and 2026 Astros in terms of runs scored per game. Notice what happens when we separate 2026 into March and April and then May 1st on. When we compare that with the 2025 version we can see what we are dealing with here. Obviously, when the season ends we can get into the whys and what fors when dealing with offensive production. This is an overall look at the club.

Those of you good at the math know this team needs to score 11 runs in 10 games in order to tie last season's total. If that happens this team has missed the playoffs and everyone is getting canned regardless. What is much more likely is that this team is going to score more than 700 runs on the season. It will feel like an improvement overall and in the strictest sense it is, but how much of an improvement is it really?

Notice from May 1st on this offense has been EXACTLY the same in terms of run production as last season. The two hitting coaches were jettisoned at the end of last season because that wasn't good enough. If this offense continues as it has for much of August and September then they will actually end up with fewer runs per game from May 1st on.

It is completely fair to ask how much of an impact any hitting coach may have. It is fair to ask whether a hitting coach can convert chicken crap into chicken salad. After all, this offensive outfield was offensive for much of the season. You'd have to hope that anyone in that general manager chair will find ways to upgrade that group going into next season (should there be a next season).

However, if we think that a general manager is more comfortable with a manager he chooses then that same philosophy continues down the line. Managers are more comfortable with bench coaches, pitching coaches, hitting coaches, and base coaches that they hire. If the Astros want the best manager available they need to give him free reign to hire who he wants. There is no one on this current staff outside of Brent Strom that is really good enough to make a fuss over. Ultimately, the Astros came into the season knowing they had to improve their offense. Their offense is really not any better than it was last season and that is an indictment on everyone involved.

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