Astros might lose this unexpected piece if 2026 payroll issues linger

The signing of Tatsuya Imai was creative for the Houston Astros, but it may have led to them being stuck in place. The Astros are quickly approaching the first level of the CBT, and if the team is unable to trade Isaac Paredes (or beg someone to take Christian Walker), they likely are done making moves of consequence this offseason.

To get the math out of the way, the Astros 2026 payroll is currently estimated at $238.4 million. The first level is set at $244 million. With Jim Crane sounding like someone who wants the Astros to remain under the tax.

Unless the Astros can clear some space on their books, Houston may not have a path toward bringing backup catcher Victor Caratini back for 2026.

Victor Caratini may be lost in the shuffle if the Astros can't clear payroll space.

Caratini inked a two-year deal with the Astros ahead of the 2024 season, carrying an AAV of $6 million. Short of his willingness to take a discounted deal, a similar contract would put Houston over the luxury tax if they aren't able to move Paredes or Walker.

The impression at the start of the offseason was that Houston, in need of a backup catcher, was going to prioritize the return of Caratini. The issue is that the 32-year-old veteran has demonstrated an ability to not only serve as a catcher, but is also capable of playing first base, and his switch-hitting splits make him a DH option for any team he is on. Add that with Caratini likely looking for a starting gig, and it would have been tough to map out a return to Houston.

Now, it's much easier to map out.

Caratini is still on the free-agent market, and while that could just be due to the overall pace of the market for position players, it's also tied to the idea that the starting job may not be out there for the veteran backstop. If the Philadelphia Phillies sign Bo Bichette instead of J.T. Realmuto, they might become an option, but even that may not have the strongest of odds.

Unless the Astros are comfortable with César Salazar (they aren't), bringing back Caratini should act as an added incentive for them to move Paredes. Not to mention, trading Paredes could be a step toward giving them a clearer identity beyond 2026.