Astros May Have Found Their Next Breakout Starting Pitcher in Ethan Pecko

The Astros were once the premier organization for developing pitching talent. Their 2022 World Series run was fueled by homegrown pitching talent like Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Bryan Abreu.

Over the last few years, the system hasn't developed nearly as many successful arms, but it appears they have a few on the way. One of those pitchers, right-hander Ethan Pecko, made his debut this year. Pecko was a sixth-round pick back in 2023 and quickly climbed through the system, making his debut with the Astros this season.

Pecko pitched in eight games for Houston, including five starts. After a few rough outings to begin his career he pitched really well in September, posting a 2.53 ERA over 21.1 innings. Only two of those outings were starts, but he went 5.2 innings in two of his relief appearances, showing he can work through a lineup multiple times and still be effective.

The peripherals left a bit to be desired, but he was able to get outs and limit baserunners. Pecko has a deep arsenal, throwing six different pitches, but his most-used pitch, the sinker, was also one of his best. Pecko threw the sinker 129 times and held opponents to just a .176 batting average and a .206 slugging percentage against the pitch.

Another pitch that stood out for Pecko was his sweeper. He threw the pitch 110 times, holding opponents to just a .148 batting average against it. The expected batting average was even lower at .131, and the pitch had a hard-hit rate of just 10.5%, easily the lowest of any pitch in his arsenal. He also didn't allow a home run on either his sinker or sweeper.

On the flip side, his four-seam fastball was a little underwhelming. Opponents hit .261 against his four-seamer, with an expected batting average of .321. If the Astros can limit his fastball usage while keeping his sinker/sweeper mix strong, Pecko could put up some really good numbers.

The 2027 season is still a long way off, but Pecko's performance in 2026 showed he can get hitters out at the major league level and deserves a shot at the rotation come Opening Day. While there are still areas of his game that need improvement, Pecko showed enough potential to warrant a longer look. The Astros have some decisions to make with their starting rotation this offseason, but Pecko should be firmly in the mix for one of those spots.

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