Astros Magic Number: What Houston must do to win AL West (and even claim No. 2 seed)

"“Like I said before, there’s no other option,” Alvarez said. “It’s just going out and winning. [Monday] was a day that we were able to reset and just focus on the six games we have left and try to win those six games.”"

Quoted from Brian McTaggart MLB.com

The Astros have 4 games to make things happen in their favor. They actually have more than the Division title, they can actually move into the 2nd seed if things go in their favor. They own the tiebreaker over the Guardians and the White Sox, whom actually have opponents that are also fighting for position as well. The Royals can make noise and disrupt this race as well with the talent of Bobby Witt, Jr. and Future Hall of Fame catching veteran Salvador Perez.

Before we get into the other scenarios, let's look at what needs to happen between the Astros and the Rangers. The Astros, in any tie record scenario with the Rangers, win the tiebreaker. With 4 games in Sacramento, the Astros seem to have to most favorable road. While the Rangers face tougher opponents, they also have a few more injuries to key players, not to mention a horribly inconsistent offense. It's so bad in Arlington, I have friends in the DFW area texting me and congratulating me on the Astros making the playoffs. Sheesh, how their tone has changed.

Michael Schwab on X laid the other scenarios out nicely. I have to be honest I thought after the 2nd sweep in a week, there was no way this team would have that chance. Well on a solid Kalshi wager and win later, it seems I didn't have as much faith as I needed. No matter what other teams do, the Astros simply have to win. If they can do that, anything that happens beyond winning the division would be the icing on the cake. Chase the Fight! Always Positive, Always 'Stros.

"You don't win on paper. No matter if the other team is better than you or not, you go out and compete. It's why we play the games. The hard part is making it to the postseason. Once you're there, its pretty much anybody's game. "

Mike Stanton World Series Champion

On my podcast Back to the Bullpen with my cohost Mike Stanton, we have talked a lot about this AL West. While it is a steaming pile of mediocrity when it comes to team performance and outcomes, someone will have to win. The thing about the Astros is they have the favorite to win the AL MVP Yordan Alvarez, and Isaac Paredes who's swinging a hot bat. If Christian Walker can heat up, Jose Altuve can be clutch leading into the postseason, and Yainer Diaz can continue to swing a hot bat, this team can compete.

Here is what will make the difference for the Houston Astros down the final stretch and into the postseason:

Starting pitchers have to go at least 6 innings, 7 would be a bonus.

Hunter Brown will get at least one more start before the postseason gets here. That start will be his most crucial of the season.

The Bullpen has to sustain leads (when the offense gives them one).

The Offense has to bring runners home when in scoring position.

Isaac Paredes has been solid and down the stretch become an even greater threat as he has vocally spoken about the great responsibility he has to protect Yordan Alvarez.

Joe Espada cannot "overmanage" the pitching staff.

Joe Espada can't single handedly win or lose a game, but his decisions do put pressure of in game situations, match ups etc. This would be a great turning point for him if his team can respond and preform when they are called upon. The question is: Is Joe Espada auditioning for the Astros job, or another job elsewhere in MLB?

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