Astros' intense rotation competition may have already eliminated its first contestant

Last year, the Astros had just two pitchers make more than 15 starts. Now, even after one of those pitchers signed with the Tigers in free agency, they're dealing with an excess of optionality in the rotation. Realistically, many of their starting pitcher candidates are less than compelling. Consequently, the lack of star power makes the results of spring training all the more important for determining who will make the Opening Day roster.

Despite an early scare, Houston's most valuable starters have avoided injuries thus far in spring training, but other candidates that are up for the job haven't been as lucky. Missing a few weeks of preseason preparation isn't a huge deal, but it may be enough to push some players off the team entirely.

Nate Pearson had a minor cleanup surgery on his elbow, slowing his spring training progression significantly

Nate Pearson had a less-than-ideal 2025, posting a 9.20 ERA over 14.2 big league innings before getting released in September. The Astros took a risk-free flier on him and signed him to a one-year, $1.35 million contract to compete for a spot on the roster. Due to this surgery, he's ramping up far slower than other pitchers in the organization and has yet to face any hitters.

He was already a dark horse candidate to break camp with the Astros even before this injury. Aside from a brief period of success with the Cubs bullpen in 2024, Pearson has never demonstrated the ability to be a consistent performer in the majors. Other than the average velocity on his four-seam fastball sitting just under 98 mph, he doesn't have much else to offer. His heater typically ends up in the middle of the zone, and his secondary offerings suffer from similar command issues.

There's still a month of spring training games left, so it's not like this seemingly minor procedure will keep him off the field for the entire season, but it makes his path forward in the organization rockier. If he's crowded out of the rotation, finding a spot in the bullpen seems even less likely given his recent results as a reliever in Chicago.

As the saying goes, where there's a will, there's a way, but for Nate Pearson, even a small setback can be the difference between being on the field on Opening Day and a potential return to waivers or free agency. The Astros aren't being pressed to make a decision yet, but when the time comes to finalize who they want taking the ball every five days, this may reduce the number of potential candidates by one.