One of the weirdest storylines from the Houston Astros' offseason was the saga that unfolded when the club attempted to trade for St. Louis Cardinals infielder Nolan Arenado. With Alex Bregman's negotiations going poorly, Houston pivoted to the Arenado trade market and it looked as if a deal was immanent. However, Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto the deal, all but killing the possibility of a deal.
But despite acquiring Isaac Paredes and using the team's payroll space to add Christian Walker, the prospect of an Arenado trade is not completely dead. The Astros recently re-engaged with Cardinals and while no deal seems close, it is wild that such a move is still possible.
Astros insider Michael Shapiro of the Houston Chronicle is not among those who like this proposed trade. Shapiro put together a very cogent case against the Astros trading for Arenado.
"Do I wish the direction was all in? Of course. But is this what's best for the Cardinals? Probably."
— Corey Miller (@corey_miller5) February 16, 2025
Nolan Arenado reported to Jupiter today, after an offseason of the #STLCards searching for a trade partner for him.
Here are some of Nolan's thoughts on the situation: pic.twitter.com/IUhix3qf6V
Astros insider's case against a Nolan Arenado trade is one the team needs to keep in mind
As good as Arenado has been throughout his career, one that could be considered Cooperstown-worthy, there flaws attached to a potential Astros-Cardinals trade. Shapiro points to the excessive salary owed to a 33-year-old on the decline. Houston may be willing to exceed the luxury tax for the right player, but betting on Arenado over the the next three years may be unwise.
Even if the Cardinals would be willing to eat a good portion of his contract (which is debatable since saving money is one of the Cardinals' biggest motivators), Shapiro accurately points out that Arenado's production has become worse and worse over the last couple of years. Houston doesn't necessarily need an extra infielder, but adding an outfielder is a more logical place to invest resources.
All of this anxiety over an Arenado trade is likely all for naught. The Cardinals clearly want to move him and the Astros seem to like the idea, but having to navigate Arenado's whims while also finding a deal that works for Houston doesn't seem worth the squeeze. There are plenty of reasons why such a trade would be a real risk and hopefully Houston doesn't try to do too much here.