Astros have glaring problem that could come back to haunt them by the time October arrives

Thank goodness for the AL West. Since winning 11 of 12, the Houston Astros haven’t been playing especially great baseball, but they found a way to win a series against a bad Giants team, which was enough to help them pad their division lead. It’s still a paper-thin margin, but it’s something. They’ve done it with a bullpen that has turned around since Josh Hader’s return, but with a lot of inconsistency everywhere else. 

The issue is that there’s a difference between surviving a bad division and thriving in October. The gap between those two things is where Houston’s offense starts to look like one of the main problems. It’s not a bullpen problem or a health problem like the Astros had earlier this year. It’s an issue that the Astros have three great hitters, and that’s about it. 

The middle and bottom of the Astros starting lineup can't be trusted

Most nights, you’ll see Jeremy Peña lead off, Yordan Alvarez hit second, and Isaac Paredes hitting third. That’s been the first three in 25 of the last 27 games. And they’re doing the heavy lifting for this team. Here’s a crazy stat. Those three have combined for 11.4 fWAR. The rest of the Astros’ position players have combined for 5.4. Total. 

Alvarez is the favorite for the AL MVP. Peña and Paredes were both All-Stars last year and are having very good to fantastic seasons this year. And because of that, the top three in the Astros offense look unbeatable, posting a .271/.359/.477 line overall, but that’s with plenty of Jose Altuve sprinkled in. The Peña/Alvarez/Paredes trio is hitting a combined .289/.382/.511. Not many teams can match that.

Everything after has been a mess. Their four through six hitters, the traditional middle of the lineup, have combined for a .683 OPS. That ranks 23rd in baseball. Their seven through nine hitters have combined to post a .663 OPS. That’s a little better in relation to the league, but still just 18th. Houston has used nine different cleanup hitters this season, looking for someone to hit behind the top three. But they can’t find anyone. It’s been a full season of looking. 

The front office kind of tried to address it at the deadline. They acquired Daulton Varsho from Toronto to help the outfield and provide a lefty bat. It made some sense in theory. Varsho posted a .548 SLG last year with 20 home runs in just 71 games. But he’d never displayed that kind of power before, and it’s dipped even below career levels this season. 

And the price wasn’t small, with early returns looking ugly. Varsho can play center and give them the lefty bat they need, but he’s not the impact bat they actually needed. 

Some evaluators have even called the move Houston’s biggest miss of the deadline. If anything, you can argue that the deadline made the roster’s balance issues even more glaring since they had to give up rotation depth to get him.

If you were wondering what happens when the top three don’t hit, you got that preview in San Francisco. Peña is just 3 for his last 38 overall and had two hits in the whole three-game series. Paredes did hit in San Francisco, though he went 0 for 4 in the finale on Wednesday. Alvarez was fine in the series, but he hasn’t homered since July 28. The Astros scored two runs or fewer in four of six games on their recent road trip and only won in San Francisco because the Giants handed them extra outs. It’s just not a formula for long-term success.

Good teams get exposed for this in the playoffs. The pitching is sharper because you’re only getting the best. Bullpens are deeper and better rested. The margin for having only three hitters to worry about and six who can allow a pitcher to catch his breath shrinks fast. If a team can neutralize the big three for even two games of a short series, and it’s been done, Houston will need someone else capable of making them pay. The numbers say that hitter doesn’t exist, and there are only 40 games and no more trades to make to find him.

Houston has one of the softest schedules left in the American League through the rest of the season. They have three left with the Angels, seven with the A’s, three with the Royals, three with the Mets, and five with the floundering Mariners. That’s more than enough to allow them to cruise into October. But what happens when they get there is an entirely different story. And right now, they’re a cold week (or even less) away from getting sent home early and unceremoniously.

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