Astros’ first-round pick is starting to heat up except in one key area

When we last checked in with Houston Astros 2025 first-round pick Xavier Neyens, he was shining in most aspects, with his power at the forefront, but a strong strikeout concern was bubbling beneath the surface. Optimism was high, but given the struggles of other high-strikeout youngsters like Brice Matthews and Zach Cole, one hoped to see that he'd figure out how to manage the Ks sooner rather than later.

Now, as we have some more data on the youngster, we're starting to see some positive progression. Through May 26, the 19-year-old is hitting an impressive .270/.436/.452 with six homers and nine stolen bases. He's brought his strikeout rate down just a touch, to 32.9%, while walking at a ridiculous 21.9% rate.

All in all, it's not too shabby. We still like to see the strikeout rate fall even further, but more concerning right now is what's happened in the power department. While six homers over 34 games and 149 plate appearances are nothing to sneeze at, this last time Neyens went yard was on May 5, leaving us to wonder where the power went.

It's too early for the Astros to worry about Xavier Neyens' power outage, though it bears monitoring

The good news is that while Neyens hasn't homered in roughly three weeks, he has done some other things well during that span. Since May 6, he's struck out less than 30%, coming in at a 27.8% clip. He's also drawn walks at the same frequency, leading to him posting a ridiculous .462 on-base percentage over this current stretch.

Producing power shouldn't be a long-term problem for the youngster. Despite coming out of high school, Neyens has an extremely advanced frame for his age at six-foot-three, 205 pounds. He's already shown that he can produce elite exit velocities and can do so to all parts of the yard.

Digging into the underlying numbers, we find some interesting things going on under the hood for Houston's prized prospect. Part of the reason why Neyens is drawing walks at such a ridiculous rate is that he rarely swings outside of the zone, chasing just 11.8% of the time. That sort of strike zone recognition is rare for such a young player, but it comes with a caveat that cuts pretty deep and also explains why he hasn't tapped into his power more.

It's not just that Neyens rarely swings at pitches out of the zone; it's that he rarely swings at pitches at all. His zone swing rate is just 51.2%, a fifth-percentile mark, and his overall swing rate comes in at 30.6%, which ranks in the first percentile.

You can't drive pitches over the wall if you don't take the bat off your shoulder, and that's what we're seeing with Neyens right now. This strategy might work in A-ball, where the opposing pitchers don't have quality control, but once he leaves Fayetteville, this could become a problem.

Don't confuse his passivity at the plate with timidness. This is a guy who compared himself to Corey Seager and Bryce Harper, after all. He'll need to find the balance between patience and a lack of aggression, of course, but the sky is still the limit. Baseball America (subscription required) sees him as one of the highest-upside players in his draft class, and a potential 30-homer slugger as long as he can prove that his hit tool can be at least average.

For now, we love the walks and the discipline, and we're sure the power will come, but what bears watching is him building enough comfort to pick his spots and go on the attack versus waiting around for the perfect pitch that may never come. A walk isn't always as good as a hit when you have the type of power that Neyens possesses.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow