Astros fans angst about Christian Walker might be overblown as market reality hits

There's no debate that Christian Walker was a disappointment for the Houston Astros in 2025. There's also little doubt that, no matter how hard they may try, the Astros are stuck with him.

We've seen the eerie similarities between Walker and the debacle that was Jose Abreu during their respective first years in Houston. But maybe things aren't as bad as they seem. Maybe there's reason for some positivity, if not even optimism, that Walker's deal won't be a complete albatross. Sounds crazy, but it's not all that far-fetched.

Walker was significantly better in the second half than he was in the first. Post-All-Star break, the former Arizona Diamondback hit .250/.312/.488 with 15 homers in 64 games (as opposed to 12 over 90 contests in the first half). So what? Abreu was better down the stretch in his first year, too, and then the wheels completely fell off. Well, there are a few factors that could make this situation different, and perhaps even bring a happy ending.

A Christian Walker rebound could be in the cards, making the deal maybe not quite the disaster that Astros fans think

The 2025 season isn't the first time we've seen Walker struggle. In 2021, the veteran slugger posted an impotent .244/.315/.382 line with just 10 home runs while dealing with an oblique injury. The following year, he mashed 36 dingers and looked like the guy the Astros hoped they were getting with an .804 OPS.

Walker was one of the few Astros who weren't part of the club's walking-wounded squad in 2025, but can we be certain of that? Put your tin foil hat on for a minute.

Walker did suffer an oblique injury last year in spring training that we were told was nothing major. Can we be sure that it didn't linger? Houston's injury mismanagement was pretty profound last season, with Yordan Alvarez and Jake Meyers serving as two prime examples where misdiagnoses made things worse and caused both players to miss more time. Is it out of the question that the same thing didn't happen with Walker when the oblique started barking in the spring? The Astros did overhaul their training staff for a reason this offseason, after all.

Walker's OPS in 2021 was .696, not far off from the .660 mark he posted before the All-Star break last year. More telling, his power was most impacted by the injury, posting a .137 ISO in 2021. Last year's first-half saw him put up a .145 ISO, compared to a .238 mark down the stretch. This is all pure speculation, but it's easy to see the connection and then start buying into the very real fact that he hit much better in the second half.

Now, let's take a look at the marketplace for a second. Pete Alonso just got a five-year, $155 million contract from the Baltimore Orioles. He's making $31 million per season. Are we really sure he's that much better than Walker, especially after his disappointing 2024 campaign?

Kyle Schwarber is making $30 million a year on his new deal, and he doesn't even play defense. Including last season, he's had just two years in his career where he posted 3 fWAR or more. Walker has four such seasons on his resume. Don't forget that Schwarber seemed to hit a low point in 2023 with a .197 batting average that dragged down his value despite his power production.

Guys who hit the long ball get paid, and while Walker has never had a peak quite like what Alonso or Schwarber have, both of those guys have valleys, too, and both are making significantly more money.

Maybe Walker makes a complete rebound in 2026. Maybe he doesn't and is still overpaid, but is still decent enough? Power gets paid, and in the grand scheme of things, $60 million for three years isn't all that much.