Astros’ facing make-or-break moment with Josh Hader trade decision

Josh Hader has been brilliant. He has once again established himself among the top closers in the game. He is putting up career-best numbers in ERA, WHIP, FIP, ERA+. He is posting career-lows in H/9, BB/9 and HR/9 (that's hits per 9 innings, walks per 9, HRs allowed per 9 for those you unfamiliar).

In other words, he's a colossal badass. With 2 years left on his contract, even at $19M per season, Hader has immense value. He also has a full no-trade clause. Would the Astros ask him for a list of teams he would accept a trade to?

It should be an unthinkable question for Jim Crane, the Astros owner who has famously said "the window will always be open" as long as he is in charge. However the facts of the matter are that the Astros don't have a contending roster, have a bloated payroll with notable dead weight, and are facing a looming lockout where older players could have their contracts toll over for an additional year if the season is missed.

An additional year of aging, of diminished performance, of the evils of Father Time encroaching on their roster. There are already some players feeling the effects of time on their performance who make significant money in Jose Altuve and Christian Walker. Those contracts get worse by the minute. Altuve is an Astros legend and will get grace from the fan base for being a franchise legend. Walker will not.

Hader is 32. He doesn't appear anywhere near diminished hence value is sky high, particularly to real contenders. Real contenders are the teams willing to pay $19M to a closer, because that elite closer in the postseason is a huge advantage.

Teams that aren't real contenders don't need to spend $19M on an elite closer, as they won't be going to the postseason and if they do, they won't stay there long.

Houston must decide if it is going to redo it's team as a true contender for 2027 (requires significant capital investment in payroll/luxury tax penalties) or if it going to undergo a youth movement and build for the future. In only one of those scenarios does it make sense to have a $19M closer.

This is the biggest decision for Crane and whomever his new GM will be. What is the direction of the franchise, because status quo is no way to go. Houston doesn't have enough impact talent ready to jump to the majors, doesn't have a lot of money below the tax line (if there is still a tax line) nor below what we have seen reported as a potential salary cap.

Crane has remained steadfast in not giving out long term deals to players in free agency. The longer terms deals they have given out include buying out some players arbitration years and an early free agency year or two, a special accomodation for a franchise icon, and a 5 year contract for Josh Hader.

If Crane is going to continue to refuse to give the desired pay days to players like Jeremy Pena, then they need to trade Pena this offseason and maximize his value, similar to how they did with Kyle Tucker. It would be franchise malpractice to keep Pena on a non-contending team just to let him walk at the end of the season for a single compensatory pick when his value is so high. Pena has one more year of arbitration before free agency.

Hunter Brown has two more years of arbitration before free agency. Depending on the new CBA, that may or may not get shorter. However, if the team isn't going to contend, then getting the absolute king's ransom they could get for Hunter Brown is the way to go.

The same could and should be said for Josh Hader. They just need to ask him nicely.

In reality, Hader has terrific value. He is also highly charitable and has been the team's Clemente Aware nominee the past two seasons. He says the right things, doesn't cause problems, and has the respect of his teammates.

A non-contending team has no business paying a closer $19M per season. A $19M per year closer doesn't want to be stuck on a non-contending team either.

Should the Astros decide to go for a youth movement, trading Hader has to be on the table. Trading him for an incredibly strong return package has to be in the thought process. That also means asking Hader for a list of teams he is willing to be traded to, because he has full veto rights in his contract.

By no means am I advocating for the trading of Josh Hader, because I would much prefer to advocate for the Astros opening the checkbooks and making this team a real contender. I also acknowledge that is very difficult to do via free agency alone. If a rebuild or retool is going to happen, it should be expected to take 2-3 years to fully pay off.

In that scenario, it is only prudent to deal Hader for his best value. His best value is certainly right now. While he is highly paid, he is an elite closer having a godly season. Teams with World Series aspirations want a guy who can lock down the 9th without question, a guy like Hader. Players like Hader can be viewed as final pieces of the puzzle, the kind a team will overpay for.

Houston can clear money, bring in young prospects and coach them up to be ready to play in the next 1-3 years and build a new foundation with the young guys they bring in from trading players like Hader and Pena (and maybe Brown). They could simply refuse to pay Pena and Brown, and without those two guys, there is no reason to pay Hader.

It will hurt seeing him leave. If they go the rebuild route, they need to trade Hader and maximize his value. The Astros have more needs than a closer, and Hader deserves a shot to pitch for a winner.

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