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The optimistic Houston Astros fan looks at the team's slow start this season and thinks to themself, "Hey, I've seen this before. No need to panic, right?" Well, yes, we've seen this before. In fact, the Astros got off to horrible start last season and rallied to win the AL West for the seventh time in eight seasons.
At the end of April last season, Houston was sitting in the AL West basement. The Astros were 10-19, 6 ½ games back of the first-place Seattle Mariners, and looked absolutely lifeless. Even the hapless Angels — without Shohei Ohtani — had a better record than the Astros.
But Houston flipped the switch, and by August 1st, the Astros reclaimed the top spot in the division and went on make their ninth postseason appearance in the past 10 years. And while it's certainly too early to count out any team (except the Chicago White Sox), this year's Astros squad is a far cry from the club that turned it on during the second-half of the 2024 season.
Astros' early-season struggles are eerily similar to 2024, but there's no Alex Bregman or Kyle Tucker to bail them out
Two players from last year's team — who were crucial to the Astros success — are absent from this year's roster. Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman both left this past offseason. Tucker was traded to the Chicago Cubs and Bregman landed a big-time free agent deal with the Boston Red Sox. Those two combined for 8.8 bWAR in 2024 — and that was with Tucker playing in just 78 games due to injury.
Houston is also without Yusei Kikuchi, who was easily the Astros second-best starting pitcher during the final two months of the season. And to this point, Ronel Blanco has not lived up to the player he was in 2024. Can one of Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., J.P. France, or Christian Javier better pick up the slack upon their return from the IL? That seems mighty presumptuous, don't you think?
The truth is that this year's team was built around the notion that players like Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Yainer Diaz, and Jeremy Peña would all take step forward in 2025, while at the same time Houston would be counting on the continued All-Star level production from Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, and Jose Altuve. At the moment, only Valdez and Altuve have answered the bell.
That doesn't mean that the sky is falling. Houston signed Christian Walker, traded for Isaac Paredes, and have high hopes for Cam Smith. But Bregman and Tucker were as close to a sure-thing as you were going to find, and they're no longer here to help Houston dig out of a early-season hole.
Yes, the Astros have been counted out (and rallied) before. But in order for this year's team to do the same, a lot of things have to break their way. That's a bold strategy, and one that Astros fans are hoping works as the season moves along.