Astros could make painful, but necessary decision in order to re-sign Alex Bregman

With the offseason officially here, the Houston Astros have some difficult questions to answer. Will Justin Verlander be back in an Astros uniform next season? How much will it cost to re-sign Yusei Kikuchi? Who will take over at first base?

But none of those questions matter, so long as Alex Bregman remains unsigned. The Astros' premier free agent to-be is scheduled hit the open market shortly after the World Series ends, and while Jose Altuve can't see any scenario in which Bregman is playing for a new team next season, a lot of MLB experts and pundits are thinking the exact opposite.

Bregman is going to want top-shelf money, which means he'll be looking to surpass the six-year, $151 million extension Matt Chapman signed with the San Francisco Giants. In order to match that request and stay under the luxury tax, the Astros will have to offload some salary. Would Houston trade Framber Valdez in order to re-sign Bregman?

The Astros are unlikely to re-sign Alex Bregman given next year's payroll

According to MLB Trade Rumors' projections for Houston's arbitration-eligible players, the Astros projected payroll for next season is a little more than $205 million if they re-sign them all (that does not include Bregman). The luxury tax threshold is $241 million, meaning that Houston is around $36 million away from crossing the threshold without adding a single free agent this offseason. The Astros surpassed the threshold last season, and doing so again in 2025 would result in a 30% tax. If Houston blows past the first threshold by more than $20 million, then a 12% surcharge will be added.

So if you're in the camp of wanting to see Bregman return to the Astros in 2025, yet also understand how Jim Crane does business, you know full well that Houston cannot bring their third baseman back (for $25-28 million, annually) unless there are some costly subtractions (or unless he's their final addition of any kind).

Valdez is estimated to take home $17.5 million in what will be his final year of arbitration eligibility. Shedding that massive salary, plus some careful maneuvering on the part of Astros GM Dana Brown, could be enough to create the payroll flexibility necessary to re-sign Bregman to a long-term deal and continue to improve the team.

Should the Astros trade Framber Valdez in order to re-sign Alex Bregman?

But is it worth keeping Bregman if it means losing Valdez? The left-hander was the Astros ace this past season with a 15-7 record and 2.91 ERA. Seeing as how Houston lost more than half their starting rotation to injury this past season, it seems unwise to trade away your best pitcher.

That said, dealing Valdez rather than losing him to free agency next offseason, while also grabbing some top prospects in return, is certainly something that Brown and Co. cannot ignore. The fact that Houston has so many injured starters returning in 2025 is the exact reason that a trade could, and should, be considered.

At the end of the day, the Astros only have so much money to pay all their stars. Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Luis Garcia, and Josh Hader are locked up for the long haul. But if you're an Astros fan who wants to see Bregman return to Houston, there's going to some casualties on the other side. Sadly, Valdez is probably on that list.

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