Astros cannot afford to chase this nostalgic offseason move

There are plenty of images that stand out from the Houston Astros’ run of dominance in the late 2010s. Aroldis Chapman staring off into the distance after surrendering Jose Altuve’s walk-off in the 2019 ALCS. Alex Bregman getting mobbed after walking off the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series. And Justin Verlander jumping into Robinson Chirinos’ arms after tossing a no-hitter against the Blue Jays in 2019. 

While the Astros’ reunion with Carlos Correa has led to some members of the fan base reminiscing on the halcyon days of that dynasty, the Astros would be smart to leave the highlights of that period in the past. 

The best way for them to do that is by not going after Verlander in the offseason under almost any circumstance. 

Justin Verlander should not be on the Astros' offseason radar

Verlander has spent this season with the San Francisco Giants, where he’s posted a 4.53 ERA in 99 1/3 innings. Those numbers are in line with his numbers from last year when he had a 5.48 ERA in 90 1/3 innings with the Astros. 

Although those middling numbers could make it seem like Verlander’s finally over the hill, the 42-year-old isn’t ready to hang it up just yet, as he told the San Francisco Standard’s John Shea that he’s planning on pitching in 2026. Verlander, who is pitching on a one-year, $15 million deal, will be a free agent after the season’s over. 

Verlander’s one of the best pitchers in baseball history, so he should have plenty of suitors in free agency even with his struggles this year. 

The Astros shouldn’t be one of those suitors. 

It looked like Verlander had turned a corner recently when he allowed one run over 15 innings in a three-start span from July 23 to August 4, but he came back down to earth over the weekend when he allowed five runs on 11 hits in five innings to the lowly Washington Nationals. 

Things aren’t much better when you look under the hood. Along with ranking in the 21st percentile in expected ERA, Verlander’s also in the 31st percentile in strikeout rate and the 30th percentile in barrel rate.

When he was at his peak with the Astros, he was able to rack up strikeouts in bunches and limit the amount of hard contact allowed by opposing hitters. Now he’s not doing either, and it’s impacting his ability to succeed on the field. 

This year was supposed to be a celebration of Verlander’s legacy. Instead it’s turned into a conversation about how he’s not going to get to 300 career wins. There’s no denying what Verlander means to the Astros. Their stunning acquisition of him in 2017 broke their contention window open, and he rewarded them by putting together a nearly flawless 2019 campaign along with another Cy Young winning season in 2022. 

Verlander’s time with the Astros was highlighted by some of the highest highs a pitcher can reach on a major league mound. It would be unfair to him (and to Astros fans) to taint that legacy with another subpar season.

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