Astros arbitration eligible players: who should stay and who should go

The Houston Astros will have a lot of decisions to make this offseason on the roster. Houston has 11 players eligible for arbitration this offseason.

Yesterday, MLB Trade Rumors published their arbitration estimates for all arbitration eligible players, and Chandler Rome of The Athletic was kind enough to put the Astros arbitration eligible player estimates all into one post on X:

Now, what should the Astros do with each of these players? Some answers are easy and obvious. Some are a little trickier. Let's examine.

1) Isaac Paredes: This is a no-brainer. The Astros love Paredes. He has a tailor-made swing for Daikin Park, he takes pitches, works counts, and gives the Astros a bat that is reminiscient of the dynasty days: solid average, high OBP, strong OPS. Despite a lsow start to the season as he was getting his legs back under him , Paredes hit a solid .262 with a .360 OBP and .806 OPS. His OPS was good for a 127 OPS+, or 27% better than league average. They have a club option on him lower than his arbitration estimate. There is a 0% chance the Astros don't pick up that option, and look for the team to extend him this offseason.

2) Peter Lambert: This should also be a no-brainer given Lambert's 2026 season. He was the only Astros starter to throw at least 110 innings last season, which is crazy. At a $4.6M arbitration estimate, that is an absolute steal of a number for a starting pitcher. They need to find a way to have him be at the back of the rotation instead of the front of it, but Lambert should be a lock to return to a team desperate for pitching.

3) Jeremy Pena: Here is the first really difficult decision for the Astros, and it's likely the most important decision the team has this season. They must make a real decision on Pena's future, and they must make it soon. When the offseason really starts (likely after the lockout when there is a new CBA) Houston (in this case specifically Astros owner Jim Crane) absolutely must make a decision of pay him or trade him. They cannot allow him to start the season with the team if they don't intend to sign him. Make him a lifer like Biggio, Bagwell, and Altuve or get a Kyle Tucker type of deal for him. Pena's value is very high and they can get an absolute haul for him. How they approach the rest of the offseason really starts with this decision.

4) Jake Meyers: Houston really missed the boat on Meyers. His value was never going to be higher than it was last offseason, and they blew their shot to deal him. Jake's average last season was an aberration, and anyone who didn't know that in the Astros front office should be fired yesterday. Jake is a one-trick pony. He can run down balls in centerfield. He doesn't hit for average, he doesn't hit for power, he doesn't have a strong arm. Despite decent speed, he's a below average baserunner. Jake's speed is also no longer elite. Once upon a time, his sprint speed was 29.2 ft/sec. In 2026, it fell to a slightly above average 27.9 ft/sec. The team should look to see if anyone has interest in Meyers, as his low dollar value should make him of interest to lower payroll teams looking for a defensive centerfielder. Outside of a trade, Meyers should be a non-tender candidate.

5) Hunter Brown: Brown is the ace of the staff and they should be working to find a long-term extension for him this offseason. If the numbers are so wildly apart that they know there's no chance to sign him, then it's time to listen on offers. That doesn't mean they need to actively shop him, but they do need to see if they can get a "godfather offer" - one so good that they can't refuse. With a top-3 Cy Young finish in 2025, a strong finish to 2026 and 2 years of team control, Brown's value is astronomical. Ideally, the Astros find a way to keep him, but if they don't want to meet his asking price then the time to listen is now. They don't have to deal him in that scenario until next year, but listening in case someone will give you that godfather offer is proper due diligence.

6) Yainer Diaz: Diaz having a strong finish to the season at the plate puts him in 2025 Jake Meyers territory. This is likely his peak value, and the Astros need to do their due diligence here. Diaz' 2026 season mirrored his 2024 season offensively, and that is a high-average, solid OPS backstop. Those are hard to find. It cannot be ignored, however, that Diaz' defense continues to regress. After four seasons, he still hasn't learned how to take a walk. He reaches for and rolls over too many pitches, and misses too many RBI opportunities as a result. His pop time has gone from 6th to 40th, making it easier for baserunners to steal despite the fact Diaz has elite arm strength. The Astros also have two young catchers who are very close to being ready in their 2026 MiLB Player of the year Jason Schiavone and former first round pick Walker Janek. Schiavone is closer to being ready than Janek, but both are maximum a year away, and Schiavone could be ready for 2027. Pairing Schiavone with a veteran catcher (hello Victor Caratini?) could be a good way to finish Schiavone's development. Diaz' offense could make him attractive to many teams, especially with two years of team control. Again, it's not a mandate to trade him, but it could very well be the peak value, and it's silly not to try to maximize his value with two high level prospects in the hopper.

7) Hayden Wesneski: Big Wes may have solidified his role as a mid-rotation starter for the Astros this season. Under $2M is an absolute steal Plus, he has 3 years of arbitration remaining including this coming season. Wes is a lock to stay.

8) Nick Allen: Allen was the target of a lot of negative commentary through no fault of his own. He didn't ask to be traded for fan favorite Mauricio Dubon this offseason in what looked like a salary dump type of deal for a later move that never came. All Allen did was have his best offensive season of his career by far. He posted career bests in AVG (.283) OBP (.327) SLG (.393) and OPS (.720), and those blew away his career averages across the board. Allen had 145 AB this season, which is about what you want your backup middle infielder to have. For the price point, I would expect Allen will be back in his reserve role next season.

9) Bennett Sousa: Sousa followed up his terrific 2025 with an injury-marred 2026 that had more downs than ups. He will be entering his age-32 season. Relievers are the most volatile performers year-over-year. It's possible that Sousa could rebound next season, and his price point makes it worth it to give him a shot. Pitching well will help fans forget his idiotic comments about the fans after game 1 of the AL Wild Card series vs. the White Sox. Pitching poorly will get him DFA'd. He did establish himself as a reliable, leverage arm in 2025. For $1.3M, it's a worthy risk.

10) Taylor Trammell: It's time to face facts. Despite the fact Trammell looks the part in every manner, he just can't hit at the MLB level. There was hope that the swing revamping he did in the offseason would translate, and early in the season it did. However, he couldn't sustain it, and he wound up finishing the season hitting .192 in a career high 255 AB. That .192 is actually 10 points HIGHER than his career average. There is no reason to pay someone $1.5M to perform worse than a rookie. He should be non-tendered.

11) Ronel Blanco: Despite his struggles this year coming back from Tommy John surgery, Blanco's arbitration number is very cheap. As he gets further away from the surgery, there is still a possibility that he finds his old form. The team should have Brent Strom working him in the offseason as much as possible before/after the lockout. There is no reason to give up on a pitcher who has had his success at that price point. He deserves one more year to show he can find his old form, and if he can he would be another steal as a back of the rotation starter. However, because of his age (33), next season will probably be his last chance to show he can find that form.

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