Astros absolutely need to be major players for top Japanese starter this offseason

While the Houston Astros have been major players at all levels of the free agent and trade markets, the one area where they have not made much headway is with regard to attracting talent from Japan. The Astros did trade for Yusei Kikuchi in 2024, and they did sign Kazuo Matsui before the 2008 season after he had already played in the majors for a few years, but Houston has never really been truly in play for top talent coming over from the NPB. That is something that needs to change this offseason.

Other than Framber Valdez, who the Astros obviously have plenty of history with, the starting pitching market isn't all that exciting when it comes to upside. However, one arm that is expected to become available is Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai, who features a very diverse repertoire of pitches and good ones at that. Given Houston's need to add some starting pitching depth, now is as good a time as any to try and make a real push into the Japanese market.

Astros need to get serious about pursuing Tatsuya Imai this offseason

There is a lot to like with Imai. Imai's stuff profiles as a big leaguer with a fastball that can reach the upper 90s, and he pairs it well with an at least plus slider while also having a changeup, splitter, sinker, and curve to keep hitters from sitting on any one offering, although that arsenal could get trimmed down in the majors. He also put up great numbers in the NPB with a 1.92 ERA across 163.2 innings last season. One should take those numbers with a grain of salt, given the lower level of competition, but they do check another box.

The Astros do have some things to offer Imai as well. Not only are they an organization that consistently contends for the playoffs, but playing in Texas does have tax benefits that could be very appealing and potentially lower the amount the Astros would have to come up with to keep pace in the bidding. That advantage is one the Rangers have leveraged in the past to sign talent out of Japan in the past, so it stands to reason that it would help the Astros as well.

Of course, there are some problems. West coast teams and/or big markets have built-in marketing advantages for players coming out of Japan that can be difficult to overcome, and Imai is likely to attract a ton of interest across MLB this offseason, which is going to inevitably cause a bidding war.

There is also the matter of actual cost when you factor in Imai's posting fee as well as the projected seven-year, $154 million deal Imai is expected to command. That is a lot to shell out for a guy who has not pitched an inning in the big leagues. However, if the Dodgers' dominance is any indicator, gambling on the talent coming from Japan these days can pay off big time.