Alex Bregman’s decision to try free agency again could face a brand new hurdle

Former Houston Astros star Alex Bregman answered the call in 2025. Entering free agency last offseason, Bregman was seeking long-term financial security either from the Astros or someone else.

On the surface Bregman had a solid year, featuring 26 homers and 4.2 fWAR. However, concerns that he was slowing down came to light. Bregman's quality of contact left something to be desired, leading to a .319 xwOBA, his lowest mark since 2016. His walk rate plummeted to 6.9% as well, again tying 2016 for the worst mark of his career.

As a result, he settled for a Scott Boras special in Boston. In 2025, he gained in exit velocity and hard hit rate compared to 2024, and brought his walk rate back to a respectable 10.3%, setting the scene for him to chase his big payday again, opting out of his contract.

Former Astros star Alex Bregman still might not find what he's looking for following his opt out

Despite the franchise altering Kyle Tucker trade, the prospect of bringing back Alex Bregman loomed large over the lead up to the Astros' 2025 season. Decisions like trying to make Jose Altuve a left fielder were all made with the intention of wooing Bregman for a reunion.

Ultimately, the Astros weren't willing go where Bregman wanted. Houston offered six years and $156 million, but Bregman wasn't budging from his $200 million desires. Presumably, coming of a stronger year, Bregman will be seeking the same $200 million figure, and there will be no shortage of teams interested in his services.

But it's still unlikely he lands the type of contract he covets. In addition to being a year older and missing significant time with a strained quad, forces beyond Bregman's control will be conspiring against him.

Two main issues will drive down his price tag, both related to the league's collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA expires next December, and talks between the league and the MLBPA threaten to be contentious. Things could easily go sideways, and a lockout could be in the cards.

Second, if a deal is reached to avoid a lockout, and/or the lockout is short-lived, it may come with serious ramifications. Talk of a salary cap has been bandied about, though any movement toward a hard cap would likely be gradual. More likely, we might see stiffer luxury tax penalties, and perhaps hard-capping once a team crosses the final luxury tax threshold, much like the apron system in the NBA.

While Bregman won't be alone, his plight amidst the uncertainty is relatively unique. As an aging player who is very good, but not elite, what team would be willing to pony up a long-term, big money deal with the prospect of missing out on one of his last remaining prime years?

Moreover, if the payroll and luxury tax structure were to drastically change, it would certainly bring about a reappraisal of value for players in Bregman's class.

As a result, Bregman may once again face a softer market than he hoped. He'll likely have plenty of lucrative, one-year offers, but that fat nine-figure pay out likely eludes him once again. With that, he may have to face the reality that it may never come. At which point, one has to wonder, was six years and $156 million really all that bad?