“How ‘Bout Houston?” Five Keys to The Houston Astros Bringing Home Another World Series Trophy

1) Which Justin Verlander Takes the Ball?

In his time wearing Astros’ orange, Verlander has somehow built a resume that invokes the question of which hat he will wear on his future Hall-of-Fame bust: Astros or Tigers? A 61-19 record, a 2.26 regular season ERA, a third no-hitter, a second Cy Young (with a third sure to follow), a climb to 12th on the all-time strikeouts list, and of course, a much-deserved 2017 ALCS MVP award after he backpacked the Astros past the Yankees with a microscopic 0.56 ERA in 16 innings pitched.

Since the 2017 ALCS? Verlander has recorded one playoff series with an ERA under 3.38: the 2022 ALCS.

In his eight starts since the beginning of the 2019 postseason, Justin Verlander is 2-4 with a 4.76 ERA. Were it not for arguably the greatest comeback in franchise history in Game 1 of the 2022 ALDS, his line would be even uglier at 2-5.

JV’s career World Series stat line is even more unsightly: 0-6 with a 5.68 ERA.

Even without the comeback narrative of a 39-year-old posting the numbers he did this season, one could make the case this was Verlander’s greatest season yet. The Cy Young is all but his. Add in the unprecedented nature of what he has done returning from injury to come back as the best pitcher in the sport at practically 40, and it’s an unfathomable feel-good story—the type that inspires a movie

But feel-good stories and movie scripts don’t hang pennants. Missing barrels, executing put away pitches, limiting walks and preventing runs hang pennants. Of the ‘Stros’ last eight playoff series with a healthy Verlander, they only had a legitimately shutdown Justin Verlander on the bump in one, albeit their most recently played.

Unless they win the World Series in a sweep, he’s all but assured to make at least two starts. With those remaining starts in his 2022 season, does Verlander answer the bell? If not, the ‘Stros may be going home empty-handed once again. But if he does, Union Station may need to make room for a second Commissioner’s Trophy. Now that, that would be a movie worth watching!

2) Where’s Javier?

For most of their window of title contention, the Astros have mashed their way past the opposition, racking up offensive numbers not seen since the Murder’s Row Yankees. The 2022 Astros functioned differently.

While still a well above average offensive team, by no means were they the historic offense we’ve grown accustomed to. This year’s team won largely on the backs of a lights out rotation and a smothering bullpen. The Astros pitching staff finished second in the MLB with a 2.87 ERA. Their bullpen led the league with a 2.80 ERA. The team limited opponents to a franchise record 518 total runs on the season, a minuscule 3.2 runs per game. Starters posted a 77-10 record when receiving 3+ runs of support. Said plainly, this staff shoves.

With numbers like these, it comes as no surprise one of their arms finished the 2022 season in the 98th percentile in expected batting average (xBA) 96th percentile in xERA/xWOBA, 95th in xSLG, 94th percentile in strikeout percentage and 82nd percentile in both whiff percentage and hard hit percentage.

Those must be numbers recorded by the prohibitive Cy Young favorite, right? No? Well how about the starter that set an American League consecutive quality starts record? Still no? Surely it’s the reliever that only allowed 7 earned runs on the season and obliterated the single season team ERA record?

Those numbers don’t belong to future Hall-of Famer Justin Verlander, 2022 All-Star Framber Valdez or new franchise record holder with a 1.15 ERA on the season in Ryne Stanek. They belong to a man that threw only 21 pitches in the ALDS—Cristian Javier. His traditional stats were just as nasty: a 2.54 ERA that would have finished tied for 7th with enough innings to qualify, and 11.7 K/9, trailing only Carlos Rodon and Shohei Ohtani.

Javier’s season is more than deserving of down vote Cy Young recognition and he’s one of the most versatile pitchers in the game, holding a career ERA of 3.00 as a starter and 3.21 out of the bullpen. His ability to be deployed as a starter or reliever, propensity to miss bats and proven postseason track record (career 3.38 ERA) make Javier a weapon any team would covet in October.

Dusty Baker has deployed Javier in two roles this October: leverage arm to keep a game close in Game 1 of the ALDS and starter in the hostile confines of Yankee Stadium in Game 3 in the ALCS. Javeir took his turn in the rotation and responded with 5 1/3 innings of shutout, one-hit baseball to all but put the final nail in the Yankees’ 2022 coffin.

Heading into a World Series against a red-hot Phillies team with 16 home runs and a .749 OPS as a team this October, it is vital Javier has a clearly defined role and gets the ball as often as possible.

What happens if Verlander’s World Series woes carry over into this Fall Classic? Do the Astros get Lance McCullers from Game 3 in Seattle, or Game 4 in New York? Did Luis’ Garcia’s Game 3 heroics earn him a turn in the rotation, and if so, does that limit Javier to one start? Does Javier start on his own, or does he piggyback off of Verlander in Game 1 and Game 5 and Dusty alluded to as a possibility had the ALDS gone to Game 4?

Those questions may have to be answered moving forward. Assuming JV regains form, it’s hard to imagine a tougher duo to put a crooked number against over 9 innings than Verlander followed by Javier. It’s a great plan, but as the legendary Mike Tyson said, “Everybody has a plan until the get punched in the mouth.”

The ‘Stros embarrassment of riches in pitchers assures a good arm will often go unused or underutilized. But if the Stros do get punched in the mouth in Game 1 again, are his 21 ALDS pitches out of one of the biggest weapons in all of baseball the recipe for success? Does his Game 3 domination keep him ahead of McCullers Jr. in the rotation? Lots of questions surround Javier’s role, to no fault of his own. Does he play the role of Madison Bumgarner and Max Scherzer and get handed the ball as often as his arm can physically withstand in this World Series?

His ability to fill two roles in dominating fashion make him quite an asset, but also requires difficult decisions to be made. Whatever the case, a clear decision and role must be made. After all, what good is a weapon in battle if it never comes out of the holster?

3) Minimize Traffic on the Basepaths

The objective of baseball is straightforward: score more runs than the other team. With that being the case, it seems a little apropos to call limiting base runners for the other team a key to winning it all. Simple math says the more runners on base you have, the more opportunities you have to score, so of course the team that concedes fewer base runners is more likely to win.

Not so fast; the Astros won’t win the World Series by preventing opposing baserunners entirely. Baserunners don’t need to be prevented entirely, but they must be forced to earn their way on. Hits are part of the game. There is a reason in today’s age batting average is no longer the go-to metric for a great hitter, but stats like OPS and WRC+ are taken more heavily into account.

Stringing together multiple hits in a row off of today’s pitchers, especially when seemingly every bullpen arm touches 99 with a 90 mph breaking ball, is about as easy as flying a Prius to the moon. Metrics that take plate discipline and a propensity to walk into account are all the rage as a batter today is more likely to get on base by never taking the bat off their shoulder and taking a walk than they are getting a base knock.

Opposing teams will pick up hits, and at times, they may even hit a big home run or two. Runs earned the hard way won’t determine who takes home the 2022 World Series. The Astros will win the World Series by minimizing walks and getting the routine outs they need from their platoon of Left Fielders.

While the Crawford Boxes can be conducive to wonky bounces and caroms, any fly ball that lands short of the warning track must be caught. Nobody would expect Yordan’s defense to rival Jeremy Peña’s 15 defensive runs saved or Kyle Tucker’s gold glove caliber work in right, but those couple of fly balls that beat him in the ALDS could prove far more costly against a team like Philadelphia. Don’t make the routine play for the final out in front of a big bat like Harper or Hoskins and trouble may ensue.

Bobble a pitch behind the dish as Martin Maldonado so uncharacteristically did with Bader on first in Game 4 and now you’ve got runners in scoring position.

As for free passes, one can’t forget that JV’s Game 1 implosion all started with a leadoff walk to Julio Rodriguez. Yordan’s eventual walk-off was setup by David Hensley’s eight-pitch walk. Many old baseball adages have gone to the wayside with modern analytics, but leadoff walks are still killers, and it feels like walks inevitably come around to score every time in a tight October contest.

Part of what has made the Astros so tough to hold down over their reign over the American League has been their extraordinary plate disciple. They can’t afford to take a dose of their own medicine. Pitchers must pound the zone, trust their defense to make plays behind them, and on the rare instance Martin Maldonado (and Christian Vasquez when he is behind the dish) must earn his “Machete” nickname by cutting down would be base stealers.

As walks stay down, pitch counts tend to stay down. With this being the case, the Astros tried and true recipe from their regular season success can carry over: starters go deep into games, turn it over to their leverage arms, and close the game out with relatively low stress. The combination of an Astros rotation that goes deep into games and a rested bullpen will likely lead to Jim Crane, James Click and the rest of the organization hosting the Commissioner’s Trophy on an early November evening.

4) Signs of Life from the DH

When Michael Brantley went down with a season-ending shoulder injury, the Astros depth and lineup were dealt a major blow. Anytime a team loses a player known as “The Professional Hitter,” its lineup will likely suffer. This is a void the Astros have not been able to fill with any consistency, regardless of what lineup Dusty has penciled in.

At full strength, Brantley and Yordan split a timeshare in both Left Field and at Designated Hitter. Since Uncle Mike went down, Yordan has made most of his starts in left while the Astros have rolled out a platoon at DH, none of whom have locked down the position.

Prized deadline acquisition Trey Mancini got off to a scalding start in his first three games, hitting three homers in his first four games, but has sputtered down the stretch, recording a 176/258/364 slash line and is currently mired in a 4-59 slump, recording four total hits dating back to September 18th.

Super-utilityman Aledmys Diaz has been the other beneficiary, but he too has struggled to find his footing as a Designated Hitter. Some players struggle to stay locked in mentally between at-bats when they aren’t playing the field. For a defender as talented and versatile as Alemdys, that may very well be the case. In 7 games as a DH this year, Aledmys hit .240 with a .576 OPS. He has received at-bats in five playoff games, going 1-14 with a double.

Combined, Mancini and Diaz are 1-26 with 1 double and 1 RBI (SAC fly) during the playoffs—hardly the production Dusty is looking for when he pencils in his DH each day. So what is the fix? Does Dusty trust them to find their strokes in time? Is this even possible when splitting at-bats? While a move I would be stunned to see, I do think Dusty has a card to play…

In 27 games as a Left Fielder this year, Aledmys Diaz hit .282. with an .847 OPS.  We know Yordan could hit if you started him at Bullpen Catcher and told him to take his ABs wearing a blindfold, but for reference, Yordan did record a 1003 OPS as a DH in 2022. Could there be something to Aledmys being more comfortable and more engaged as a left fielder than as a DH?

Dusty tried this in Game 2 of the ALCS and Aledmys followed with an 0-3. He went back to Mancini in New York, who strung together some quality ABs and a big SAC Fly in Game 3, but still no hits. As Dusty himself said in the 2020 ALCS:

“We’re not looking for some exit speed. We’re looking for exit hits.”

With Brantley out, does Houston’s best lineup leave their biggest trade deadline acquisition off the lineup card and move Yordan back to the DH? Does Dusty ride Mancini in hopes his last two games showed signs of a bat ready to break out? Where does David Hensley factor in?

With their current lineup construction, the Designated Hitter basically is functioning as the Designated Rollover to Shortstop. If they are to have any shot at another World Series ring, Houston must start getting some production from the DH slot: be it Aledmys, Mancini, Yordan, David Hensley or Jeff Bagwell himself.

It’s difficult to make any overarching changes after coming off of a sweep, but if the Astros’ offense falters early in the series, Dusty needs to pivot. One more shot at jumpstarting Aledmys’ bat with another start in left and letting Yordan focus on inflicting as much damage as one man possibly can to every baseball thrown his way may be Dusty’s final resort. If that doesn’t work, it might just be time to turn things over to the rookie Hensley under the brightest lights of them all.

5) Capitalize on Runners in Scoring Position

The Astros finished the regular season eighth in runs scored with 737. While nowhere near a number to slouch at, this is still a substantially lower number than their 920 runs in 2019 and 863 in 2021, a mark that led all of baseball. Regular season success in those seasons aside, their bats ran cold in the brightest of lights, pushing across 15 total runs in their eight World Series losses.

If the ‘Stros are to secure a second World Series title, a repeat performance of the erratic, all-or-nothing nature of their offense that has shown up in their previous Fall Classic trips cannot be afforded.

Four wins away from a title, the Astros must continue to do what the offense has prided itself in doing over their last five seasons—pass the baton and hit with runners in scoring position.

The Astros came into the 2019 World Series having hit .268 on the season with runners in scoring position. They led baseball with a .272 mark last season. Their .270 average this season tied for 2nd. As the Astros demonstrated in their last two trips, July hits with RISP mean nothing in October and November.

The 2022 Dodgers finished the regular season with a league-leading 111 wins and a league-leading .272 batting average with RISP. Los Angeles got sent packing by the Padres in four games after going a combined 2-26 in their three losses with RISP, one of those hits being a bunt that didn’t drive in a run.

Regular season track records don’t result in rings. The reigning champion Braves can attest as they too were eliminated in the NLDS after stranding enough runners to populate a deserted island. Houston must stay the disciplined team they are, work walks and keep constant traffic on the basepaths. Once occupied, Houston must do damage. Timely bombs, base-clearing doubles into the gap, and Bermuda Triangle bloops that find the outfield grass must result in crooked numbers on the board.

Jose Altuve has shown signs of regaining form at the top of the order, now three for his last seven with some hard hit outs in the mix as well. Altuve is fresh off of his best season since winning the MVP and possesses a proven track record in October with 23 career playoff home runs. I’d find it more likely Altuve repeats his 2017 ALDS Game 1 showing with three big flies in one game than that he continues to slump.

Assuming the Altuve of the regular season and previous playoff seasons is back, Jeremy Peña stays hot in the two hole, then the big bats in the middle of Yordan, Bregman, Tucker, and even a recently resurgent Yuli Gurriel must find ways to bring them around.

If the Astros’ bats once again go cold, they’ll join LA, Atlanta and the Mets as a 100-win team scratching their heads and wondering how they exited the playoffs without a ring. A three-run homer here and a two-run double there, however, and Houston can finally get back across their last playoff hurdle…calling themselves champs once more.

Four wins stand between these Astros and a second World Series title. If Houston gets Justin Verlander in ace form, properly utilizes Cristian Javier, limits opposing baserunners, gets a meaningful contribution from their Designated Hitter and capitalize on runners in scoring position, no possible October foe still standing can compete. Miss on a few of these keys and the ‘Stros will likely be still on the prowl for a second title in 2023.

Check all of these boxes, however, and Houston will secure a second title. Six seasons with six straight ALCS appearances, five division titles, multiple offensive and pitching records capped off with a second World Series title would mean only one thing—no longer are the Houston Astros just the envy of the American League. No, a second World Series title during this Golden Era of Astros baseball makes them a dynasty.