Houston Astros: 5 players who could decide the ALDS vs. Mariners

HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 06: Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros high fives Jeremy Pena #3 after hitting a solo home run during the third inning against the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park on September 06, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 06: Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros high fives Jeremy Pena #3 after hitting a solo home run during the third inning against the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park on September 06, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
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The Houston Astros have entered the game.  With the Wild Card round over, the long awaited return for postseason baseball in Houston is at hand.

The Astros will play their division foe the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS. Seattle made it to the ALDS behind a dominant Luis Castillo outing followed by an incredible seven run come from behind victory against the Toronto Blue Jays, only the third ever rally of that margin in playoff history.

To recap, the Astros won the season series against the Mariners 12-7 including winning seven of their last eight games against each other. Their final series was the Astros sweeping Seattle at T-Mobile Park.

5 Houston Astros players whose performances could be the determining factor in the ALDS.

It wasn’t long after this sweep the Mariners made the second biggest trade acquisition behind Juan Soto and Josh Bell going to the San Diego Padres by trading for Luis Castillo.

Castillo cost them a lot in terms of prospects but seems to be worth the bounty as he came in and shut down the Toronto Blue Jays vaunted offense in the first game of the Wild Card round. He was brought in to dominate and start a series in just such ways,.

Despite Castillo’s presence at the top of the Mariners rotation the Astros still have the edge in pretty much every category from starting pitching to bullpen to offense with the defensive side of things being much closer. The Astros are third in all of baseball in defensive efficiency at .719 while the Mariners are fourth at .710.

Suffice to say the statistic that continues to be brought up in each broadcast is whoever hits the ball out of the park the most will win. That is especially true when balls that don’t leave the yard get snagged on a great dive or leaping catch,.

The Astros have the edge offensively as they do have a lot of power that Seattle lacks. With defense seeming to play such a critical factor in this series, if the Astros just do what they’ve done all year which is leave the park on a couple mistake pitches while their rotation and bullpen keep the other offense at bay they should win this series.

Here are the five players for the Astros that will determine their series win.

Jeremy Pena #3 of the Houston Astros hits a soft ground ball back to the pitcher in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Minute Maid Park on August 28, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Jeremy Pena #3 of the Houston Astros hits a soft ground ball back to the pitcher in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Minute Maid Park on August 28, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Jeremy Pena’s defense and power will be a huge advantage over the Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford.

Jeremy Pena’s rookie season has been quite impressive. Considering the pressure he had to fill the shoes of one of the most beloved, clutch and confident Astros to ever don the uniform he has done a pretty great job not having Astros fans pleading for Jim Crane to re-sign Correa next year.

Pena matched Carlos Correa’s power output this season with 22 home runs in two less games played, though Correa had a better propensity for getting on-base and hitting for average.

Defensively this year Pena has been stellar. It is hard to quantify defense but the number we commonly go to in order to value a player’s defense is defensive runs saved. In that category, Pena is top 15 in the league with 15 defensive runs saved.

He’s tied with Mookie Betts and Steven Kwan. While Kwan is also a rookie, to be mentioned in the same sentence with an MVP level player like Betts who has won five gold gloves in his career is a true accomplishment.

Pena’s counterpart in this series is J.P. Crawford. Where Crawford lacks Pena excels and vice versa. Crawford defensively according to the numbers has been pretty rough with negative three defensive runs saved.  He also doesn’t hit for any power with only six home runs on the year in 145 games.

But the one thing he does well that Pena doesn’t is walk and not strikeout. Crawford has 68 walks to 80 strikeouts in 603 plate appearances. Compare that to Pena who has 22 walks to 135 strikeouts in 558 plate appearances.

How will Pena’s bat play offensively against the tough pitching of Luis Castillo, Andrew Munoz and Paul Seward?

The Astros have an extremely high winning percentage since putting Pena in the two hole in the lineup sandwiched between arguably the Astros two best hitters. But if he strikes out at a high clip in between Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez at-bats he’ll have to make up for it with his defense where he could rob the Mariners of some hits.

On the flip side Crawford’s defensive deficiency and the Astros speed could cause the Mariners some problems as a slow chopper or ball in the hole could lead to some soft hit singles that could result in big innings for the Astros.

Pena’s defense and power need to outplay Crawford’s plate discipline and ability to run up pitch counts (Crawford sees the second most pitches on the Mariners with 4.09 per plate appearance.)

If Pena starts to strike out a lot and the bright lights cause a bobble here or there on the field the Astros distinct advantage at shorstop becomes a much thinner margin that could change the series.

Framber Valdez #59 of the Houston Astros tips hat to the crowd as he set a new Major League Baseball record of 25 straight quality starts against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park on September 18, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Framber Valdez #59 of the Houston Astros tips hat to the crowd as he set a new Major League Baseball record of 25 straight quality starts against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park on September 18, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Framber Valdez is pitching in what could be the most important game that determines who wins this ALDS.

Valdez has been worthy of being in the Cy Young discussion. If not for the top vote then at least a top five finish with his remarkable consistency most clearly displayed by his record breaking 25 consecutive quality starts in a single season.

Valdez’s calling card this season has been ground balls and going deep into games, leading the American League in innings pitched at 201.1. It’s also the first time he’s thrown more than 200 innings in a season, a true sign of a workhorse pitcher.

Game one is not a given the Astros will win even though it feels like it with Justin Verlander on the mound. The Astros should only need two runs to win game one and it feels like that should be possible against second year pitcher Logan Gilbert who has thrown well against the Astros this season but considering his counterpart on the mound he would need to be perfect and everything would need to bounce Seattle’s way to win game one.

Valdez however has the tough task of trying to get the Astros to Seattle with a commanding 2-0 lead assuming Verlander does what he’s supposed to do in game one.

Valdez’s opponent is Luis Castillo who just got through throwing 7.1 shut out innings against a Blue Jays team that lead the entire major leagues in batting average and was second in the American League in runs scored.

It’s been no secret that this is the Astros weakest offensive team in their entire Golden Era run. Valdez will have to match Castillo zero for zero and hope Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez can handle a mistake and put it over the fence.

If the Astros lose game two which is a distinct possibility they could go into a Seattle playoff atmosphere that will be tough to win in considering it’s their first time in the post season in 20 years.

The Astros would still have Lance McCullers Jr. vs Robbie Ray in game three. Ray is a pitcher the Astros in the regular season and he didn’t seem to handle the playoff pressure well in Toronto, but it’s still a scary prospect going into a frenzied fan base with the Astros needing a win.

If Valdez wins his start then the Astros almost assuredly win this series. But if Valdez loses the toughest battle of his professional career going against the 100 mph fireballer in Luis Castillo, it could provide an emotional boost the Mariners need to close the series out in Seattle.

Game two may be the most pivotal game of the series and Valdez last year only had one good post season start. Which Valdez shows up this post season remains to be seen.

Rafael Montero (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Rafael Montero (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Rafael Montero’s physical talent is undeniable. How will he respond to the playoffs especially facing the team that gave up on him?

It’s hard to believe that Rafael Montero was rated just as high as Jacob DeGrom in the New York Mets minor league system given how different their careers have gone.

Just last year Montero was in the minor leagues for Seattle due to his ineffectiveness at the major league level before being involved in a trade that brought Kendall Graveman to Houston to shore up the bullpen.

Montero has been a revelation appearing in 71 games, the most of any Astros pitcher, while posting a 2.37 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, good for fourth on the team only behind Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier and Hector Neris.

Montero’s physical gifts have never been in question. The mental side of things, much like the aforementioned Valdez, have been the biggest impediment to him fulfilling his potential as a devastating weapon out of the bullpen or even as a starter.

Montero has become the Astros go to set-up man in the eighth inning this year and his counterparts in Seattle are no slouches.

In fact the one place where Houston and Seattle are most evenly matched has to be the bullpen.  While Houston’s relievers lead the entire major leagues with a 2.80 ERA, the Mariners were sixth with a 3.33 ERA.

The Astros have the advantage in middle and long relief, but in the back end the Mariners have Andres Munoz who can throw over 100 mph on a regular basis plus Penn Murfee and Paul Sewald.

That’s a virtual tie with Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, Ryan Pressly and Montero. Montero has the talent, but in a rough Seattle environment where he had the lowest point of his career, can he slay the mental dragons that plagued him while there with an entire stadium of Mariner fans berating him and reminding him of his failures? If so the Astros will be in great shape to win close games late.

If not the team could see some heartbreaking late losses similar to what the Blue Jays just experienced.

Houston Astros left fielder Trey Mancini (26) hits a sacrifice RBI against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the fourth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Astros left fielder Trey Mancini (26) hits a sacrifice RBI against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the fourth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports /

Trey Mancini will need to be effective in order to lengthen the Astros lineup and add pitches to the Mariners starting pitchers so Houston can get to Seattle’s middle relief.

The Astros have a top heavy lineup with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker all being tough outs in the top half of the lineup.

All four of those guys have great plate discipline, a strong knowledge of the strike zone, low strikeout rates and the ability to get on base via walk, hit or home run.

After those four there is a significant drop off at the number six spot in the lineup as Yuli Gurriel is a far cry from his 2021 batting title champion form and Martin Maldonado along with whoever has played center field for the team has just not been a reliable source of offense.

Trey Mancini was acquired from the Baltimore Orioles to help alleviate the issues in the back end of Houston’s lineup but it has not gone so well during his short tenure.

Since being acquired by Houston, Mancini’s slash line is .176/.258/.364 with 49 strikeouts against 18 walks alongside eight home runs.

Mancini started hot with the Astros hitting three homers in his first two starts. It has been a struggle since then and the Astros have to hope Mancini gets a little extra juice from playing in the postseason.

Gurriel is now in the six spot being more of a contact first guy with little power so it will be up to Mancini to provide the pop at the back end of the lineup. If he can take advantage of the Crawford Boxes with one big swing considering runs will be at a premium against Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, one big Mancini swing could turn the tide in a close game.

More than anything Mancini needs to leave the yard during this series. He can not hit for average or get on base so long as he has a couple big swings in big moments from the back end.

Getting any production outside of the top five hitters in the Astros lineup will make this a short series as the Mariners offense, despite their production in Toronto, is not overwhelming and certainly not anything Astros pitchers can’t handle.

If the Astros get four runs in any given game this series that should be enough to almost guarantee a win given the strength of their pitching and the shortcomings of the Mariners offense. Mancini could provide the punch in the gut home runs that put games out of the Mariners reach.

If the Astros don’t get anything from him it’ll put much more pressure on the top of the lineup to produce all the offense, a tall task to ask of them to string together big innings against such great pitching.

Mancini being able to make contributions to the lineup could make this not only an Astros series win but a quick one if he can push them into the five to six run range.

Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros reacts after hitting a home run during the sixth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Minute Maid Park on September 27, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros reacts after hitting a home run during the sixth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Minute Maid Park on September 27, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /

Jose Altuve is the heartbeat of the Houston Astros and as he goes so goes the team.

The other players we’ve mentioned are primarily under the radar guys aside from Framber Valdez. It’s not a question that Altuve is the most important member to the Houston Astros in so many different ways.

He bears the brunt of boos at the beginning of every single road game. 81 times a year he puts that on his shoulders and still produces.

Altuve has a knack for clutch hits, home runs, plays in the field and aggressive base running skills including scoring on a sacrifice fly to a second baseman. In the postseason he gets better as he has a .907 postseason OPS and seems to do it every time the Astros need a big swing.

Last year he did it against Boston in the eighth inning of game four in the ALCS at Fenway Park. Down 2-1 in the series as well as the game, Altuve did his patented first pitch fastball over the left field fence routine to tie the game at 2-2 and altering the course of that series.

Since Altuve is a fastball hitter, it will be interesting to see how often he gets challenged with a fastball from the high velocity guys like Luis Castillo and Andres Munoz. Altuve may be 32 years old but he is having his best season since his MVP year in 2017 so it’s not like his bat speed has slowed down.

He hit .300 with 28 home runs and in what is probably the most under the radar statistic of the year, Altuve was third in the league in OPS behind only Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez.

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Despite those eye popping numbers Altuve is not beyond bunting to get on base so the guys behind him can drive him in. His selfless play, leadership and of course all-around talent will be key to the Astros making another long run in October.

If the Astros get vintage postseason Altuve, and nothing suggests they won’t based on his performance this year, the Mariners will have a brief trip to the ALDS before retooling for next season.

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