Ranking Houston Astros’ most favorable playoff matchups

Astros best playoff matchup No. 2 — Seattle Mariners

Record vs. Seattle Mariners 2022 Regular Season: 12-7. Outscored opponent 73-65 in 19 games.

The Astros went 12-7 against the Seattle Mariners going 7-1 against them in the final eight games they went head to head including a three game sweep in Seattle. They beat up on last year’s Cy Young winner Robbie Ray twice, never letting him get past the third inning in either start.

The unknown factor will be how the Astros handle Luis Castillo who will be the Mariners game one starter. He has had an up and down tenure with the team so far but overall he’s been consistently good posting seven quality starts out of 11.

But even should the Astros lose game one against Castillo they still have Framber Valdez vs Robbie Ray who Houston has had tremendous success against.

And once again the advantage the Astros hold over the Mariners is the fact that Seattle’s offense is just as bad as Tampa Bay’s. Meaning the Astros may need only two runs to win any given game against Seattle given their dominant pitching and the offensive deficiencies of the Mariners.

The reason Seattle is higher on this list of teams to fear is simply because they hit more home runs than Tampa which when it comes to pitcher’s duels if you can hit it out of the park on any given plate appearance with a runner on base that could be the difference maker when runs are hard to come by.

If a team is more prone to making a pitcher pay for a mistake, and it only takes one, the Mariners have a team more adept at leaving the yard than the Rays do. The Mariners are fifth in the American League in home runs. The Rays are second to last only ahead of the Cleveland Guardians.

Speaking of whom.

Astros best playoff matchup No. 3 — Cleveland Guardians

Record vs. Cleveland Guardians 2022 Regular Season: 4-3. Outscored opponent 26-18 in seven games.

A month ago the Guardians would have been higher on this list of teams the Astros want to play. But they are scorching hot which is always a terrifying prospect coming into October as the Astros have found out from playing the 2019 Washington Nationals and 2021 Atlanta Braves.

The Guardians went 21-8 in September and have arguably the best closer in baseball with Emmanuel Clase at the back end.

Clase leads all of major league baseball with 41 saves and has been so dominant that he won three of the past four reliever of the month awards since June. A lock down closer is terrifying in postseason baseball as that means you basically have eight innings to get the lead or else the game is over.

Shortening the game with a dominant bullpen is huge for October and the Guardians, while also offensively challenged, seem to have the best back end of any team in baseball not named the Astros.

In fact the Guardians are right behind the Astros bullpen in a litany of categories. The Astros are second in Major League baseball in save percentage at 76 percent. The Guardians are third at 74 percent.

The Astros are second in baseball with only 17 losses in relief. The Guardians are third in all of baseball with 18 losses in relief. The Astros are second in baseball with 52 saves. The Guardians are fourth with 50 saves. You get the point.

While the Guardians offense is second to last in all of baseball in home runs at 126, their offensive runs per game is right at the league average of 4.29 per game. That’s more than the Seattle Mariners at 4.22 and the Tampa Bay Rays average of 4.15 runs per game ranking 19th and 21st respectively in all of baseball.

What the Guardians lack in pop they make up for in not striking out. They strikeout the least of any team in major league baseball. The team that strikes out the second least is the Astros. One thing that could frustrate Houston pitching is not being able to put guys away and foul ball after foul ball extending at-bats and raising pitch counts getting starters out by the fifth inning which could spell trouble for Houston.

The Astros bullpen depth, which could include as many as three starters, should be able to carry any extra workload they may endure if anyone in their playoff rotation goes short. But the longer a series goes and the more taxed a bullpen gets the less sharp the pitches are.

Houston still should be able to beat Cleveland should they meet in the ALCS, which is the only scenario they would meet since Cleveland is locked in at the three seed and the Astros only ALDS matchup can be between the four and five seed. But the Guardians could cause problems for the Astros more than the Rays or Mariners could.

Astros best playoff matchup No. 4 — New York Yankees

Record vs. New York Yankees 2022 Regular Season: 5-2. Outscored opponent 27-22 in seven games.

While the run differential is the smallest of all the previous teams, it doesn’t truly reflect how dominant the Astros were against the Yankees. The statistic that really shows how much the Astros owned the Yankees this year is the fact that the Yankees never led in any game they played except for after the final at-bats of games one and four of the series in New York.

This series included Cristian Javier’s seven no-hit inning performance that was finished off by Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly. The Yankees do have a powerful offense leading the American League in runs scored and they lead all of baseball in walks.

A patient offense with power can be a problem for the Astros pitching staff but the one thing the Yankees don’t do well is make contact. After Aaron Judge’s .311 batting average the next highest average is Isiah Kiner-Falefa with .263. Over half their lineup is hitting under .250 and four of their nine guys in the lineup are hitting .227 or under.

They are a true three outcome team either walking, homering or striking out and against elite pitching it showed that the strikeouts were a problem for the Yankees when facing the Astros. The games they won were by game tying or game winning three run homers so they score in bunches but with the Astros pitching they should put up more zeroes than they do big innings.

There is of course the mental side of this in the fact that the Astros have had the Yankees number since 2015 when they beat them in the Wild Card game at Yankee Stadium. Since then the Astros have won two more playoff series against New York and gone further in the playoffs than the Yankees every year since 2017.

With Aaron Judge’s potential impending free agency departure next season the pressure seems even greater for them to win it all this year. This will most likely be the ALCS matchup and if so it would be a dandy.

Astros best playoff matchup No. 5 — Toronto Blue Jays

Record vs. Toronto Blue Jays 2022 Regular Season: 2-4. Outscored opponent 27-26 in six games.

These teams met in the first month of the season but the games had a playoff atmosphere as they were both known to be contenders to play in October. Both squads gave an all-out effort reserved for a matchup in fall rather than two early series in April.

Every single game was close with five of the six games having a one run margin of victory, with the Astros winning a game 11-7 in Toronto. Clearly this series was close as despite the fact the Astros lost the season series four games to two they still outscored Toronto 27-26. For what it’s worth this series was also Jeremy Pena’s coming out party when he hit a walk off home run against the Blue Jays elite closer Jordan Romano.

The Blue Jays would by far be the toughest opponent for the Astros to face in the playoffs. Their offense is fourth in runs scored but unlike the Yankees they hit for contact. By contrast to the Yankees the Blue Jays have eight players hitting .263 or better. You’ll remember from the previous slide that that number is the second highest batting average on the Yankees.

The Blue Jays have the highest team batting average in the major leagues, they are seventh in the majors in home runs, and they don’t strikeout a lot as they have the sixth lowest strikeout rate in the major leagues.

In the playoffs the more contact you can make and the more you can minimize rally killing strikeouts the better off you are.

Besides their potent offense they have two aces leading their rotation in Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. Those two would be formidable foes to the Astros one-two punch of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez.

The bullpen of the Blue Jays is probably their weakest point but they have three relievers with ERA’s under three and in a short series with two starters who can go six strong that is a scary prospect.

The Blue Jays high contact, high power offense combined with their top two in the rotation and solid bullpen make them the opponent the Astros least want to face. Especially in a short series where you only need three starters unless the series goes the distance. Unfortunately were the Astros to face the Blue Jays it would be in an ALDS matchup where the depth of your starting rotation won’t be exposed. Starting pitching depth is where the Astros have the Blue Jays beat as after Toronto’s top two starters there is a significant drop off with the struggling Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi.

The biggest advantage the Astros have over Toronto is playoff experience. There’s only a handful of players on this team that have seen postseason action other than the pandemic playoffs of 2020 which had minimal crowds.

If the Astros play the Blue Jays it will be the first taste of real postseason baseball for a lot of their players.  How they respond to those environments could determine the series as the Blue Jays have enough talent to match up with the Astros.

It’s looking like the Astros will most likely face Toronto or Seattle in the first round. If you’re an Astros fan, root for Seattle. Because Toronto is the most dangerous team that could ruin the Astros run of consecutive ALCS appearances and their bid for a second World Series title.