Comparing 2022 Houston Astros to other Golden Era teams

2017 Houston Astros: 101-61 (.623 Winning percentage).

AL West Division Champions. Second best record in American League, third best in all of baseball. 896 Runs Scored. 700 runs allowed. End of Season: World Series Champions in Seven Games Over Los Angeles Dodgers.

2017 is when the Houston Astros Golden Era truly started as they earned their first World Series championship in franchise history

They lead the league in runs scored with 896, 38 runs ahead of the next best team which was the New York yankees.

Their pitching however was less than stellar. Oddly enough the pitcher who lead the team in innings pitched that year was none other than Mike Fiers throwing 153.1 innings. The team ERA was 4.12 which was 11th in all of baseball and just above league average that season which was 4.35.

Obviously there was a reason the team traded for Justin Verlander which every Astros fan can agree has worked out remarkably well as Verlander has brought the team a World Series Championship, a Cy Young award season and potentially a second Cy Young award coming this year.

The 2017 Astros seem like the inverse of the 2022 Astros as hitting was their calling card, but a beleaguered bullpen led by the volatile Ken Giles forced the Astros to resort to bringing starters in for relief when the postseason hit.

Both of their series clinching game seven wins in 2017 came on the backs of Lance McCullers Jr.’s 4 inning relief stretch which included his famous 24 straight breaking balls to the New York Yankees and Charlie Morton throwing five innings of relief to close out the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium and win the World Series.

Brad Peacock also earned a 3.2 inning save in game three so these Astros very much had to piece together their pitching in the postseason (similar to 2021 but we’ll get to that team later.)

If the 2017 Astros had to face the 2022 Astros in a seven game series it would be hard to say 2017 would beat 2022. Despite the fact that 2017 is the only team to win the World Series, 2022 has Verlander posting his best ERA, WHIP, ERA+ among a litany of other stats where this is the best season he’s ever had.

Despite the offensive woes of the 2022 team, at full strength their holes on offense are not as glaring as the 2017 team’s holes in pitching. The disparity between the bullpens would be the ultimate factor as this team has the best bullpen possibly ever in the history of the franchise right up there with the days of Brad Lidge in the seventh inning, Octavio Dotel in the eighth and Billy Wagner in the ninth.

The weaknesses offensively for both teams are at catcher. While center field and first base are the weak spots for the 2022 Astros with a mix of Chas McCormick, Jake Mayers, Mauricio Dubon and a struggling Yuli Gurriel, the 2017 Astros fielded Josh Reddick (albeit in a career year for him) and a combination of Evan Gattis and Carlos Beltran at DH.

Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are both exponentially better than those players and make up for the disadvantages they have playing against George Springer in center and a better version of Yuli Gurriel at first.

So this 2022 team is better than the World Series winning team. Obviously a sign for hope going into this October.

2018 Houston Astros: 103-59 (.635 Winning percentage)

AL West Division Champions. Second best record in American League, second best in all of baseball. 797 Runs Scored. 534 runs allowed. End of Season: American League Championship Series Loss in Five Games to Boston Red Sox.

Sometimes it’s hard to remember that this team actually had more wins than 2017. It’s a combination of the fact that they ended up having the worst result of any Golden Era Astros team losing in five frustrating games to the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.

But also because the offense was very inconsistent, scoring 10 runs one game followed by getting shut out the next. Sound familiar?

This team closely resembles the 2022 Houston Astros as pitching was their calling card. The team had its first year with the two headed monster of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole at the top of their rotation following their trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

One of the more impressive things is that this team’s Pythagorean Expected Win-Loss given their run differential of 263 was 109, a win better than the 108 the 2018 Boston Red Sox posted.

It was fitting that this Astros team underachieved in the Win-Loss column as they also underachieved in the postseason given the fact that their rotation was Verlander, Cole, Charlie Morton, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr.

The similarities between these two teams is eery as the 2022 Astros have struggled with consistency on offense though a large part of that is due to the struggles of Yuli Gurriel, the loss of Michael Brantley and the gaping hole offensively at both catcher and center field.

The 2022 Astros are on pace for the lowest offensive output of any Golden Era Astro team while their pitching staff is about to post the best pitching numbers in the Golden Era as they’ve scored 704 runs so far and given up 497 runs.

The pitching would have to give up 37 more runs over the next eight games which would be an average of 4.63 runs. That seems unlikely given the fact that they’ve averaged 3.22 runs allowed per game and three of those games are against a Tampa Bay Rays team they held to two runs over three games just last week.

Where the 2022 team ends up is still to be seen. Despite the final result not being all that impressive, this 2018 team ran into a buzz saw that was the 108 win Boston Red Sox. The infamous fan interference home run call in game four of the ALCS that took away a two run homer from the Astros was a tide turner in the series. The Astros ended up losing that game by a margin of two runs and if the Astros win that game it’s a 2-2 series going into game five with Verlander and Cole scheduled to pitch the next two games.

While the 2022 Astros bullpen is better than the 2018 one that involved the controversial trade to get Roberto Osuna, the rotation of Verlander, Cole and Morton against the 2022 offense would be stifling.

It would be neck and neck but if my arm is twisted 2018 has the slight edge on 2022.

2019 Houston Astros: 107-55 (.660 Winning percentage)

Franchise best record. AL West Division Champions. Best record in all of baseball. 920 Runs Scored.  640 runs allowed. End of Season: Lost World Series in seven games to Washington Nationals.

Nothing displays how much a team on a hot streak matters more than your overall talent. When a team is feeling it, there’s really no stopping them.

That was the case with the 2019 Astros as they faced a Washington Nationals team that caught fire in October going from Wild Card entry to World Series champion.

Despite the disappointing result, this Astros team was stacked and had one of the best seasons in the history of Major League baseball. There are so many eye popping statistics from this team it’s hard to say which was most impressive. The one that displays the balanced two sided attack of this team most accurately is that they were the first team ever to lead the league in strikeouts while also striking out the least offensively.

As great as 2022 has been, this 2019 team is still the most talented Astros team ever assembled. Perhaps it’s because we don’t know the full trajectory of the careers of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. Perhaps the Astros have two future hall of famers in at least two of those pitchers.

But the 2019 Astros had three future hall of famers in their rotation between Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and then the addition of Zack Greinke. Verlander and Cole finished one and two in the Cy Young voting and it was close. They both were dominating at absurd levels with Verlander going 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and an obscene 0.803 WHIP with 300 strikeouts over 223 innings.

Cole was just as filthy going 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA, 0.895 WHIP and posting 326 strikouts over 212.1 innings. For what it’s worth Zack Greinke made 10 starts for the Astros going 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Which it should be noted that those numbers are also very good.

This 2022 team has pitching that rivals 2019, but this is the Astros team that had one of the best offenses ever assembled. Alex Bregman finished second in MVP voting receiving 13 first place votes, just four behind the winner Mike Trout.

The team also boasted Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel, two guys who each hit career highs at 31 home runs a piece. They added free agent Michael Brantley to play left field alongside George Springer in center field.

The team of course had Carlos Correa providing solid production from shortstop and as if that wasn’t enough they unfairly added Yordan Alvarez at designated hitter who lit the league up so much he was the unanimous rookie of the year receiving all 30 first place votes.

The 2022 team is great no doubt about it. But the 2019 team was the best Astros team ever assembled and fell just a game short of sealing their fate as the greatest Astros team of all-time regardless of who came after them. 2022 can potentially take that title of greatest Astros team of all-time with a World Series win.

But until then the 2019 team is still the best.

2020 Houston Astros: 29-31 (.483 Winning percentage)

Second place in AL West, eighth in the American League, 16th in all of baseball. 279 Runs Scored. 275 runs allowed. End of Season: Lost American League Championship Series in seven games to Tampa Bay Rays.

This is hard to compare considering the shortened season. Pro-rated to a 162 game season the Astros would have finished with 78 wins. But we all know a Major League baseball season is long. Just ask the 2019 Washington Nationals and the 2021 Atlanta Braves.

There’s no way to know if this team would have broken out of their early 2020 funk if they had played a full season.

But due to the circumstances of the pandemic shortened season and expanded playoff format they just made the cut as the second best team in their division, ending up making the playoffs and then making noise once they did.

They swept their best two out of three series against the Minnesota Twins which really seemed to turn the momentum of the season for the team as they were also reeling from all the blowback of the 2017 sign stealing scandal that had just been revealed earlier in the year.

Beating the Twins breathed life into the team as they then went on to dominate the Oakland A’s winning the ALDS in four games. They scored 33 runs across those four games, never scoring less than five runs in any one game.

This season also saw the emergence of Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier giving us glimpses into the future we now live in. Dusty Baker did a great job managing this team in crisis as he managed the postseason perfectly. His best decision came in a momentum shifting decision during the ALCS against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Zack Greinke was on the mound in the top of the sixth inning of game four with the Astros on the brink of elimination down 3-0. Baker came out to get the ball from Greinke with the bases loaded and two outs and the Astros clinging to a 4-2 lead. Martin Maldonado argued vehemently to let Greinke finish this inning assuring Baker that Greinke could get the next guy out. Dusty decided to roll with Greinke who struck out Mike Brosseau getting him to chase a changeup out of the zone on a 3-2 count.

If only AJ Hinch had that same confidence in game seven of the World Series the previous year.

Regardless this team was pitching almost exclusively rookies due to the free agent departures of Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel plus the season ending injury to Justin Verlander. Offensively they also lost Yordan Alvarez for the year as well as their closer Roberto Osuna.

The fact they made it this far losing their Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and their closer not to mention pitching with Andre Scrubb, Josh James, Enoli Paredes and a bunch of other rookies is truly an accomplishment in and of itself.

This will probably go down as the least talented but guttiest team in the Golden Era. Prorated their offense would have only scored 753 runs while allowing 743. That 753 would be the lowest runs scored mark of any Golden Era team provided this year the team scores 50 more runs in their final eight games (which they very well may not since they would have to average 6.25 runs per game to do so) and the 743 would be the highest runs allowed of any Golden Era team.

In other words the 2022 Astros would wipe the floor with the 2020 team.

2021 Houston Astros: 95-67 (.586 Winning percentage)

AL West Division Champions. Second best record in American League, fourth best in all of baseball. 863 Runs Scored. 658 runs allowed. End of Season: Lost World Series in six games to the Atlanta Braves.

This team was better than its overall record. Their Pythagorean Expected Win-Loss based on run differential put them at a 101-61 record, right with the 2017 World Series championship team.

Their record is deceiving because in the first half of 2021 the bullpen was absolutely atrocious. Last year’s contributors such as Enoli Paredes and Andre Scrubb could not replicate their previous season’s success. The team was blowing leads both big and small and losing very winnable games.

James Click and Dusty Baker were calling up and sending down relievers so much they must have felt like they were in an elevator shaft. The team addressed those needs trading for Kendall Graveman to fill the eighth inning role as well as Phil Maton and Yimi Garcia to reinforce for the troubled bullpen.

Not to be forgotten is the fact that the Astros also received Rafael Montero from Seattle in the Kendall Graveman trade who has been lights out stepping into the eighth inning role left vacated by Graveman.

The offense put up the third best runs scored total of the six Golden Era teams though they were right there with the 2017 team in terms of offensive production. Lance McCullers Jr. carried the weight of the rotation with Verlander missing another full season due to Tommy John surgery.

However Lance McCullers Jr.’s forearm injury exposed how thin the rest of the rotation was as they got blown out by Boston’s offense relying primarily on their bullpen to gut out an ALCS series win.

This year the progress of Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier alongside the resurgence of Justin Verlander makes it clear there’s no doubt the 2022 team is better.

Despite the loss of Carlos Correa, Jeremy Pena has done a serviceable job filling in, though his strikeout to walk rate needs to vastly improve. It will also be seen if Pena can fill the clutch factor that Correa left in his legacy as the Astros shortstop.

This 2022 team would beat 2021 just because the pitching is that much more superior even if the 2021 team hit better. Oddly the pitching is better partially due to the fact that the same pitchers from 2021 have just made leaps and bounds of progress. It doesn’t hurt getting vintage Justin Verlander back either.

2022 Houston Astros: 101-53 (.656 Winning percentage)

AL West Division Champions. Best record in American League, Second best in all of baseball. 704 Runs Scored. 497 runs allowed. End of Season: ????

So where does that put this team in the pantheon of all the Astros Golden Era teams? Second place sounds about right behind the 2019 Astros though they could be interchangeable with the 2018 team to which they are remarkably similar.

It will be interesting to reflect on this team after seeing the careers of Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez and even Hunter Brown.

Valdez, Javier and Brown specifically look like they are young superstars in the making with Valdez already earning an all-star appearance this season.

If those three have long successful careers we could look back and say “Wow, those three guys were all in the same rotation at the same time?”

The thing that really sets this Golden Era Astros team apart from any other is the dominance and reliability of the bullpen. We all remember Jose Altuve’s game six blast that sent the Astros to the World Series in the 2019 ALCS. But the reason he was even put in that position was because Roberto Osuna blew a 4-2 save opportunity in the top of the ninth.

The biggest weakness on every single Golden Era team has been the bullpen until this year. Now for the first time the offense is being outshined by the pitching.

If this team ends up winning 105 games, which they only have to go 4-4 the rest of the way to do that, and then win the World Series it would have to thrust them into the best team conversation alongside 2019, if it doesn’t make them the sole possessor of the title.

Having the second best finish in franchise history with arguably the best pitching staff the team has ever had plus a World Series title would make it hard to argue this isn’t the greatest Astros team of all-time. They’ve already put themselves in the conversation.

The question is can they punch their ticket into all-time Astros greatness with that ever so elusive second World Series title.