Houston Astros: Five Questions Entering September

As the Houston Astros enter the final month of regular season baseball, they are in great shape to make the playoffs and push for another World Series title. They hold a double-digit first-place lead in their division and, at the time of writing, have their largest lead in the race for the best record in the American League that they have had all year at four games over the New York Yankees

Here are the five questions facing the Houston Astros in the month of September.

Despite these comfortable leads and the almost certainty that they are headed towards receiving a bye and home-field advantage throughout the American League Playoffs, there are still five big questions facing the Houston Astros as they exit the regular season and prepare for the postseason.

We’ll start with the obvious one because nothing looms larger than the fate of their ace and his strained calf.

1. How will Justin Verlander’s calf heal, and how quickly?

The news so far seems to be good in regards to Justin Verlander and his ability to return before the season is over.

As it stands according to mlb.com, the imaging shows no muscle fibers were disturbed so a 15-day IL stint should be enough time for Verlander to heal and come back.

How much that will affect his rhythm, and how long it will take to get back to throwing 100 pitches per game, is yet to be seen.

If everything goes according to plan, Verlander takes two weeks off, throws without issue, gets a couple of regular season starts under his belt to shake off the rust and build up arm strength, and is right as rain come game one of the American League Division Series.

But, any slight delay in his recovery, any reinjury, could be costly. If this were July or August, the Astros would have time for some setbacks should they occur. With October around the corner, however, Verlander doesn’t have time for a rehab assignment to get back to throwing in the way he’s accustomed.

If he suffers any kind of setback, it could jeopardize his spot in the postseason rotation, at least for the first round. If he hasn’t pitched in over a month but is healthy, is he still reliable to go deep or pitch at a Cy Young level?

Considering the Astros’ pitching depth, it would be in consideration to leave him off the ALDS roster if his recovery is slowed and trust Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy, and Cristian Javier or Luis Garcia to win in the ALDS and give him time to build back up and be in the best shape possible for whoever they face in the ALCS.

Hopefully, that decision doesn’t have to be considered and everything goes according to plan, but Verlander’s health and recovery is the number one question as we enter September.

Will Jeremy Pena be able to rectify his inability to get ahead in counts and draw walks?

Jeremy Pena gave Astros fans a whole lot of hope at the beginning of the year with his on-field performance, causing a lot of them to say “Carlos who?”

But, his second half has been less than spectacular, causing concern for how he’ll handle elite-level pitching in October.

The biggest concern has to be his K/BB ratio. He has struck out 107 times this year against 19 walks, and in August, he’s walked twice against 25 strikeouts.

He’s dead last on the Astros in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.59 pitches per plate appearance), 3-0 counts seen percentage (2.8 % of his plate appearances have resulted in a 3-0 count), and 2-0 counts seen percentage (7.2 % of his plate appearances have resulted in a 2-0 count.)

His inability to get ahead in the count and draw walks will only get further exposed in the postseason when facing pitchers like Gerrit Cole, Alek Manoah, Luis Castillo, or Shane McClanahan. Not to mention, the inability to drive those starters’ pitch counts up if he can’t extend at-bats to potentially knock them out of a game early if he’s not seeing a lot of pitches.

The Astros are known for their propensity for contact and not expanding the zone. While Pena’s exceptional speed could result in some infield hits, his abnormally high strikeout rate could result in some rally-killing swings and misses in crucial moments.

If he can use this final month to alter his approach considering the cushion the Astros have, it wouldn’t be a bad time to experiment before October.

Is August just a rough month for Rafael Montero or signs of him returning to his struggles from Seattle?

Similar to Yordan Alvarez, the month of August has been unkind to Rafael Montero. It’s possible his overuse is a primary driver in his issues this month.

He’s made 13 appearances, tied for the most he’s had of any month this season, and has thrown 11.2 innings which is the most of any month this year.

His ERA of 6.17 is by far his worst mark of any month in 2022, as he gave up at least an earned run in five of his 13 appearances while allowing multiple baserunners in seven of his 13 appearances.

The positive is his strikeout numbers are still solid with 12 this month, but he has also allowed 14 hits which are five more than he’s allowed in any other month this season.

These are what they call the dog days of August and fatigue could be a factor, but with Montero, there has to be concern regarding the mental side of things.

This is someone who was on par with Jacob deGrom as a prospect in the New York Mets system and for whatever reason, just hasn’t really been able to put together the kind of career someone with his talent and pitching repertoire should have.

No one’s saying he has to be a Cy Young contender but he certainly should be an effective reliever with the stuff he has. September will be an interesting month to see if his issues are fatigue-related or something bigger. The mental side of things for Montero will be worth monitoring going forward.

How will Hunter Brown respond to his first time facing Major League hitting?

The Astros have truly put to the test the adage of “You can never have too much pitching.” Even despite Justin Verlander’s injury, they have a top-five Cy Young candidate in Framber Valdez plus last year’s fifth-place vote-getter in Lance McCullers Jr. Combine that with the talented pitching of Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia and it’s truly incredible how much depth their rotation has.

Now, with Hunter Brown being called up, the Astros have the potential of seven stellar arms and only four postseason rotation spots to put them. Brown will obviously be coming out of the bullpen and he will almost assuredly fill the relief role previously held by Cristian Javier.

The Astros will use him as a multiple-innings reliever. To prepare him for his super-reliever role, his final appearance in Triple-A Sugar Land was being brought into the game with two outs in the third and no runners on base. simulating entering a game mid-inning. His other relief appearances have been in tandem starts.

If Brown performs as well as he has in the minor leagues, the Astros will have a tough decision on their hands as to who they should carry into October. They already have the best bullpen ERA and opponent’s batting average in the American League at 3.04 and .215 respectively.

Could Hunter Brown make the best bullpen even better?

What’s the biggest takeaway going into September from the season so far?

There’s truly little to complain about with how well the Astros have played this year, not to mention their solid divisional cushion that has made it easy for their fans to not fret over whether or not the team will end up in the wild-card round, much less the playoffs.

Even now, their four-game lead over the Yankees seems hard to squander with only a month to go (knock on wood.)

The biggest question marks are more about October and how to best prepare for it.

How much time should they give Verlander to recover and make sure he’s back to form for game one of the American League Division Series?

Is there any treatment that will make Yordan Alvarez’s wrist issues better or is he going to have to gut it out? And if so, will he be the same hitter we saw over the first half of the year, or will his power fall off, similar to Alex Bregman’s in last year’s postseason with his wrist injuries?

Can Jeremy Pena find a way to get ahead in counts and not be such a free swinger, which will definitely be exposed against the highest level of pitching in the postseason? And if not, what’s the solution to his swing-and-miss issues and where should he hit in the lineup come the fall?

Was Rafael Montero’s August swoon just a month of exhaustion or does it portend worse things to come when the bright lights of October baseball hit? Will his confidence issues resurface at the wrong time?

And if they do…will Hunter Brown make a case for taking the spot of any of the relievers currently on the roster for the postseason? If he pitches to such an immaculate level, would the Astros consider leaving someone who has been part of the best bullpen in baseball off the playoff roster and give Brown a shot on the biggest stage of all?

While September may lack drama for the Astros, other than the difference between being the one or the two seed in the American League Playoffs, there’s still plenty to prepare for and to ponder the best way forward to get this team ready for another World Series title run.