3 Reasons Luis Garcia, Not Cristian Javier, Should Move to Bullpen

Here are three reasons that Luis Garcia, not Cristian Javier, should move to the bullpen amid the reshuffling of the Astros’ rotation.

On Thursday, it was announced by manager Dusty Baker that the Houston Astros would once again be scaling back to a 5-man rotation now that Lance McCullers Jr. has a couple of starts under his belt following his return from injury. This is a necessary move given that the Astros shouldn’t head into the postseason with pitchers used to a routine of 5+ days of rest, but no one envies the decision Baker has to make as to which starter to shift to the bullpen.

For at least the next week, the odd man out is Cristian Javier. It’s a tough draw for him given the breakout season he has been having, but he has more MLB relief experience than anyone else in the Astros rotation. The Astros begin a weekend series at home against Baltimore on Friday night and McCullers will make his start as scheduled. However, Javier will skip at least one turn in the rotation as Jose Urquidy gets bumped ahead a day to start in his place on Saturday. Justin Verlander will do the same and start the finale on Sunday.

Yet, plenty of evidence suggests that the odd man out should be Luis Garcia instead of Javier. In theory, the Astros would be hurt less by taking Garcia out of the rotation than they would any other starter. While this isn’t an indictment on his potential future as a starter, especially considering that he’s only 25 and in a tough spot on a team with so many elite arms, Garcia should be moved to a bullpen role for at least the rest of the season for the sake of preserving Javier’s well-earned spot in the rotation. Here’s why.

2. Luis Garcia has a weak track record as a postseason starter

In fairness to Garcia, his postseason career only spans 17.2 innings. He deserves a chance to redeem himself on the big stage at some point, and Cristian Javier has only ever been used as a reliever in the postseason. However, if it’s an either-or situation, the Astros should opt for something they’ve never tried instead of trying something that has failed in the past year and use Javier as a starter in the postseason while Garcia assumes a relief role.

In 5 starts in the 2021 postseason, Garcia posted an ugly 8.04 ERA. This includes the eventually decisive game 6 of the World Series, which the Astros lost at home. He averaged just over 3 innings in those starts and had at least one bad outing in each series. He may have been facing some of the best hitters on the planet and it was his first go-around as a regular in October, but he didn’t prove much of anything in that stint.

Again, it was as a reliever, and he got hit even harder than Garcia did in the World Series, but Cristian Javier didn’t allow a run in 3 appearances against the White Sox and Red Sox in the first two rounds. Even despite his rough World Series performance, he finished the 2021 postseason with a 3.37 ERA. He also pitched well in the unorthodox 2020 postseason as a rookie, posting a 2.89 ERA across 5 relief appearances that year.

They may have been in different roles, but Javier has been a more effective postseason pitcher than Garcia. This matters when deciding who to move to the bullpen because part of the reason the Astros are doing this is to gradually shorten the amount of rest pitchers have between starts. Rest is something they won’t have in the postseason.

Another way to look at this, though, is to simply compare each pitcher’s performance while they’ve both been starters.

3. Cristian Javier has had a better season than Luis Garcia overall

Cristian Javier has enjoyed a terrific breakout season. Headlined by a notoriously high-spin fastball, he has some of the best stuff in the game. On the year, he has a 2.88 ERA, 3.37 FIP, and 1.00 WHIP in 112.1 innings. Opponents are slashing a measly .179/.263/.331 (.594) against him, and his advanced metrics are elite as well: his Statcast expected batting average of .174 and xwOBA of .255 are among the best in the league. He limits quality contact on a great level.

Garcia, meanwhile, hasn’t had a breakout year, and in fact, he has been in a slump of late. His latest outing against the Twins (5 IP, 3 ER) wasn’t terrible, but he has a 5.22 ERA in the second half. On the season, he has a 4.14 ERA, 4.05 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP in 128.1 innings. Hitters are more productive against him in general with a .229/.287/.407 (.694) slash line. His expected metrics are all above league-average, but worse than Javier’s: his Statcast xERA is 95 points higher (3.60 vs 2.65).

Again, this is not to suggest anything beyond this season. Garcia is young, and to post numbers similar to that of a good 4th-5th starter at his age still bodes well for him to reach his full potential one day. However, in a situation that doesn’t exist on any other team in baseball, there are simply too many starters that have been better than him on the Astros’ roster, so the bar is higher.

This season, Cristian Javier has been one of those starters that is having a better year. He should be the one staying in the rotation, and it makes the most sense for the Astros to move Luis Garcia to the bullpen.