Five Reasons Astros Should Consider a Carlos Correa Reunion

The Minnesota Twins are coming to town to visit the Houston Astros. With them, they bring one of, if not the most clutch Astro of all time back to Minute Maid Park for his first time as an opponent.

Carlos Correa’s final at-bat as an Astro was game six of the 2021 World Series, flying out to right field. It was assumed at the time that was most likely his last swing playing for Houston. But with the report last week that Correa will opt out of his three-year contract with the Twins, there’s still a possibility for a reunion with his former team.

The Houston Astros should consider signing Carlos Correa in the 2022 off-season.

The Astros seemingly have moved on from Correa with the production they’ve received from Jeremy Pena at shortstop. But there are multiple reasons the team should revisit the idea of bringing Correa back, even if it comes at the expense of the young shortstop.

Here are five reasons the Astros should at least reach out about Correa’s availability.

The Astros could move Jeremy Pena to left field.

With Jeremy Pena solidified as the shortstop of the present, it wouldn’t be outlandish to think he could play elsewhere on the field given his athleticism, arm strength, and speed.

It wasn’t so long ago that Craig Biggio moved to the outfield to make room for Jeff Kent for the betterment of the team. Biggio left second base where he had previously been an all-star because he knew adding Jeff Kent’s bat would make their lineup that much longer and stronger.

The Astros’ current left fielder, Michael Brantley, may not just be done as an Astro, but he’s potentially closing in on the end of his career at the age of 35 with recurring shoulder issues. Considering that, Pena could fill that vacancy in left field the team will have next season.

If Yordan Alvarez can learn the position, why can’t Pena? It would be a defensive upgrade from Yordan in left and would reunite the Astros’ “core four” of Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, and Carlos Correa, the four infielders with the most postseason games played together in major league history.

Now, of course, Correa will come at a price. But there’s reason to believe the Astros can afford him.

The ability to sign Correa would hinge on if the Astros choose to spend money to re-sign Justin Verlander or not.

Whether the Astros shell out money to Correa will depend on if they prefer to spend big to retain Justin Verlander, who almost assuredly is going to exercise his player option at the end of the year considering he is a front runner for the Cy Young Award and will want to make more than a paltry $25 million next season.

If Verlander does not re-sign with the Astros, they will have some wiggle room financially, especially because none of their important core players are up for free agency until 2025 at the earliest. Here is the portion of the Astros roster that is under team control through 2025 or beyond.

Starting Pitching: Framber Valdez (2026 FA), Luis Garcia (2027 FA), Cristian Javier (2026 FA), Lance McCullers Jr, (2027 FA) Jose Urquidy (2026 FA.)

Lineup: Jose Altuve (2025 FA) Alex Bregman (2025 FA) Kyle Tucker (2026 FA) Yordan Alvarez (2029 FA) Jeremy Pena (Currently on rookie contract)

That’s an entire cost-controlled rotation for three years, not to mention Hunter Brown waiting in the wings in case of an injury, plus five solid hitters that can be counted on to produce for two more seasons at least.

If the Astros sign Verlanded, then a Correa reunion financially is almost certainly out of the question. Verlander would want Max-Scherzer-type money provided he finishes the season healthy and on the same path he’s been on all year performance-wise.

But if Verlander goes elsewhere, there will be some extra money to go around. And with the rotation in great shape, why not upgrade the offense if you have the chance? It would ensure that none of their AL competitors would have Correa on their roster anyhow.

Carlos Correa has an exemplary postseason resume. Jeremy Pena is an unknown when it comes to October.

Jeremy Pena has been a pleasant surprise at shortstop. Filling the shoes of Carlos Correa, one of the most beloved Astros of all time, was no small feat. However, he has done a great job and has produced on a similar level offensively to Correa this season.

It’s important to note that while Pena’s power has been a nice surprise, he was projected by scouts to be more of a glove-first shortstop when he hit the major leagues.

His hitting has slowed down tremendously since his hot start to the season and the one area Correa has Pena beaten in spades is his plate discipline. Here are their strikeouts, walk totals, batting averages, and on-base percentages side by side.

Correa: 85 strikeouts to 45 walks. .266 batting average. .348 OBP.

Pena: 103 strikeouts to 19 walks. .246 Batting average. .287 OBP.

A .300 on-base percentage is essentially the Mendoza Line for OBP and Pena seems to only be able to get on base when swinging the bat. He is the team leader in strikeouts and is last on the team in walks by a wide margin.

The player with the second-most strikeouts on the team is Martin Maldonado with 95 strikeouts to 19 walks. Granted, that’s in nine fewer games but Maldonado’s lack of offensive prowess was so bad that the Astros had to trade for another catcher at the most recent deadline.

Of course, Jeremy Pena is a rookie. There are two sides to this coin: one being that he will improve and adjust to major league pitching. It’s also possible he simply had a hot couple of months and is more of a glove-first shortstop over a larger sample.  His numbers since July 1st are as follows:

42 games, .213 Batting Average, .239 OBP, 50 strikeouts, and 7 walks.

The only positive to take away is that he has seven home runs in that span but even then, six of them came in July.

We will also find out if he can hit in the postseason against the most elite pitching baseball has to offer and if he can live up to big moments when the time comes.  He has a couple of walk-offs this year, but to do it in the postseason when facing elite-level pitching is a whole other story.

With Carlos Correa, you know what you’re getting. Elite defense, 20 to 25 home runs, and a guy who turns it on when October hits.

If there’s one thing analytics can’t measure, it’s how someone performs under the brightest lights of postseason baseball. Pena is an unknown when it comes to that, whereas Correa is an established postseason star. He’s 28 years old and is tied for the all-time record in postseason walk-off hits with “Big Papi” David Ortiz (they have four each for the record.)

Now, one more option for the Astros if they do sign Correa.

Jeremy Pena could upgrade the team as a trade chip for a win-now player who can fill another gap on the roster.

I opened by talking about Pena switching positions, so I might as well bookend it with the possibility of trading Pena if the Astros do re-sign Correa.

If Correa comes to Houston on a six-year deal, they could use Pena in a trade to acquire a solid center fielder or catcher with team control to fill the biggest holes on their roster.

Pena is currently in the running for rookie of the year though he most likely will be runner-up at best to Julio Rodriguez, barring an injury or sudden surge in production. He could fill a lot of teams’ holes at shortstop as a dependable fielder who can hit for power.

If the Astros re-sign Correa, Pena will become another prospect with MLB experience who could be packaged in a trade to get someone who is more of a certainty with what they will provide at the major league level.

As much as we want to believe we already won the free agency decision by not re-signing Correa and having a budding superstar in Pena, it’s still way too early to project that he can produce regularly throughout a season as a major league regular.

In baseball, it’s always good to go with consistency and someone with whom you have an idea of what they are as a major leaguer, as opposed to someone early in their career whose identity isn’t truly known over the long haul.

Years ago, Atlanta Braves fans were ecstatic over former player Jeff Francoeur when he first came up and tore the cover off the ball. It was short-lived and he never recreated that magic he had in his first big league season, becoming a merely serviceable major league player after that.

It takes at least three seasons to fully understand who a player is and what role they can provide for your team.

Again, with Correa, you know what you’re getting. The jury is still out on Pena.

It’s most likely not in the cards for Correa and the Astros to resume their relationship, but it shouldn’t be completely off the table either, considering the holes the Astros have at center field and catcher. Re-signing Correa means they could trade Pena for help in those two areas before the 2023 season.

Championship windows only remain open for so long. The Chicago Cubs only had a window of contention from 2015 to 2021, when they blew it all up to start over. The Nationals had an even faster downfall, going from World Series champions in 2019 to already being in full rebuild mode today after trading away the face of their franchise in Juan Soto.

If there is a choice between Pena and Correa, it only makes sense to take Correa. If the price is right and the Astros have the financial room to do so, they should go for it.