Houston Astros: 3 Reasons Josh Bell Should Be Top Trade Target

Josh Bell should be the Houston Astros’ top trade target before the August 2nd trade deadline.

The Houston Astros have come out of the all-star break hot, sweeping the New York Yankees in a doubleheader and the Seattle Mariners in a three-game weekend series.

These weren’t just statement series, but exclamations. The Yankees have had the best record in baseball all year and the Mariners were on a 14-game winning streak. Essentially, Houston swept the best team and the hottest team in baseball in a span of four days.

It’s clear that the Astros, as constructed, are good enough to win their division and possibly even overtake the Yankees for the number one overall seed in the American League. But, with the possible moves their challengers may make at the deadline, the Astros have to address their biggest weakness as a team to counteract any additions other contenders may make to exploit their biggest holes.

There are three primary reasons that Washington Nationals first baseman Josh Bell makes the most sense for the Astros over any other trade target:

Josh Bell would provide lineup depth on a completely healthy Astros team.

The Houston Astros, for the first time in their golden era, are weaker offensively than they are at pitching. After witnessing some historic offenses in the past five years, they are now relying on their rotation and bullpen to win games whenever their offense sputters.

The seven through nine hitters of their lineup have been less than stellar this season. Whether it’s a combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers or Aledmys Diaz, they’ve just not performed well enough for a team with championship aspirations.

The addition of Bell would lengthen the lineup and put these players in the positions they should be in: as defensive replacements, pinch runners and pinch hitters, not starters.

This is what the Astros’ lineup could look like, completely healthy, with Bell:

1. Jose Altuve 2B
2. Michael Brantley RF
3. Alex Bregman 3B
4. Yordan Alvarez LF
5. Kyle Tucker CF
6. Yuli Gurriel 1B
7. Josh Bell DH
8. Jeremy Pena SS
9. Martin Maldanado C

Bench: Jake Meyers OF, Chas McCormick OF, Aledmys Diaz UTIL, Jason Castro C

This is not how I would make the lineup but I’m just guessing what it would look like based off of manager Dusty Baker’s penchant for lefty-righty alternating and having contact-heavy guys at the top of the lineup.

That said, if the Astros are fully healthy with Josh Bell, they’ll have talented hitters from the one through the eight slots in the lineup. Defensively, they do get worse with Alvarez in left, Brantley in right, and Tucker in center. But, the impact offensively will far outweigh any defensive deficiencies this team suffers.

And as for the last reason Josh Bell makes sense: the cost it would take to acquire him.

The prospect cost for Josh Bell won’t be as high since he is a half season rental.

The Astros’ farm system continues to rate low across all scouting reports, boasting only one top-100 prospect in their system at number 86 with Hunter Brown (per MLB.com). I wouldn’t be surprised if, after the new post-draft rankings come out, Drew Gilbert shoots up to number two in the system over Korey Lee, Pedro Leon, etc.

Bell is in the final season of his contract and players who only have a half season left are cheaper to acquire prospect-wise than someone who’s under team control beyond this season, like Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Brian Reynolds or Washington Nationals right fielder Juan Soto.

The Astros likely don’t have a deep enough farm system to trade for someone with more than a year of control, but they do have enough talent at the top of their farm to get Josh Bell for half a season.

I don’t know what the prospect cost would be, but it’s possible the Astros could survive making this trade without giving up top prospect Hunter Brown considering the short amount of time Bell has left on his contract.

The Astros could go the quantity-over-quality route as they did when they acquired Gerrit Cole, and give the Nationals four high-risk, high-reward prospects.

A package that could make sense is some combination of Forrest Whitley, Joe Perez, Corey Julks and/or Jose Siri. Three of these four prospects are 24 years of age or older with Perez being the exception.

Whitley would be a high-risk, high-reward prospect if he does finally figure out how to harness his stuff. Remember, he was the number one right handed pitching prospect in all of baseball at one point but has been derailed by injuries.

Regardless, the fact that Bell’s cost will be lower because of his short contract makes him the most feasible trade target for a team with a weak farm system that is trying to keep its window of contention open.

The Astros wouldn’t have to sell the farm for him and can continue to develop and draft to rebuild after losing two years of first round draft picks.

Bell would give the Astros’ lineup depth, and he’d be a health insurance policy on Brantley, Alvarez and Gurriel. Considering their rotation and bullpen seem to be set and ready for October (not to mention adding Lance McCullers Jr. at some point), the depth of the offense is the only glaring hole on this team with championship aspirations.

As currently constructed, this team can win in the regular season. It needs one final boost to assure it will win in the postseason. Bell is that boost.