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2 Teams Are Holding Fire Sales. Who Should the Astros Take?
Tigers: Gregory Soto and Andrew Chafin
The Astros’ most pressing need at this trade deadline is offense, namely at first base, left field, and catcher. While they continue to express their happiness with Martin Maldonado at catcher for what he provides in other facets of the game, it would be nice if the Tigers had a promising bat for them to trade for. The thing is, their offense has been a different kind of non-existent. Not a single one of their regulars has an OPS+ over 100. A 39-year-old Miguel Cabrera has been their most productive hitter. Their leader in rWAR, Eric Haase, is their backup catcher.
Despite all those egregious tidbits, they somehow have one of the best bullpens in baseball at the exact same time. Relief pitching is more of a secondary item on the Astros’ deadline wish list, and the Tigers have it in bunches. Only the Astros, Yankees, and Orioles have a better bullpen ERA than Detroit’s 3.14, and only the Braves and Yankees have a better FIP. Tigers relievers have pitched to a 0.53 HR/9, better than anyone else in baseball.
Houston already has an elite bullpen, but all their top weapons throw from the right side. Detroit has 2 left-handed relievers that are sure to get asked about a ton: Gregory Soto and Andrew Chafin. Soto is their closer, and he pitched in the all-star game in L.A. He has a devastating 98-mph fastball with a high spin rate to boot. Through 34 appearances, he has 18 saves, a 2.56 ERA, and a 3.41 FIP. He’s 27 years old and won’t hit free agency until the end of the 2025 season. The one issue is that when he gets hit, he gets rocked: both his hard hit rate and average exit velocity against are in the bottom 15% of pitchers this season.
Chafin would be far cheaper to acquire since he’s older, about to hit free agency, and doesn’t pitch in as many high-leverage situations. The veteran has pitched extremely well amidst all the disappointment surrounding him in Detroit this year, with a 2.64 ERA, 2.21 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP in 36 appearances. Unlike Soto, walks and hard contact aren’t a problem with Chafin: his 2.6 BB/9 easily trumps Soto’s 4.3. If the Astros can get him, it would be the second straight year that Chafin gets dealt to an AL West buyer, as the Cubs sent him to Oakland at 2021’s deadline.
A Gregory Soto trade wouldn’t and shouldn’t push Ryan Pressly out of the closer’s role; Soto would likely become a middle-innings reliever if acquired. Meanwhile, Chafin would be more of a rental, but he has arguably been better this season. Getting ether of these two pitchers would help diversify an impressive but righty-heavy bullpen.
Marlins: Nick Fortes, Anthony Bass, Garrett Cooper
The Miami Marlins are stacked with young talent. Sandy Alcantara, their lone untouchable as mentioned, has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season. Pablo Lopez and Braxton Garrett continue to establish themselves as high-quality arms. However, the Astros currently have 6 MLB-level starters and are about to get a 7th when Lance McCullers completes his rehab starts, so the rotation is not an area of need. In terms of position players, Jazz Chisholm is becoming one of the premier faces of baseball, but with Altuve at second base, the Astros don’t need him either, and he’ll be out for most of August at the least with a back problem.
So, as with Detroit, the Astros would be best served to look at their under-the-radar trade candidates because they’re the ones at positions the Astros need to address. The first name to consider is backup catcher Nick Fortes. Not known very well whatsoever outside of Miami, he’s still a rookie, but is quietly hitting better than most young catchers in the game.
At age 25, he boasts a 118 OPS+ so far this year, meaning the Astros would be getting both offense at the catcher position and continued leadership from Martin Maldonado, because Fortes has yet to prove himself as a starter. He’s also proficient on the defensive side of the ball: his 1.4 rWAR is top-5 among Marlins position players this season, despite the fact that he has only played 30 games.
Another name that’s not as well-known by casual fans is Anthony Bass. I believe he should be the top right-handed reliever on the Astros’ list because at age 34, he has been one of the most lights-out bullpen arms in the game. Through 41.2 innings, Bass has allowed just 7 earned runs, coming out to an ERA of 1.51. He has a FIP of 1.95 and a WHIP of 0.96 to go along with that, and he would fit in quite well with the Astros’ bullpen on account of the fact that he’s only surrendered a single home run. His 31.5% hard hit rate is among the lowest in baseball, and he’s having a career year at 34. This is a guy who should absolutely be throwing in high-leverage innings for a contender in October.
The only reason Garrett Cooper wasn’t listed first is because I see him as a fallback option if the Astros can’t trade for Josh Bell or Trey Mancini. Cooper is no slouch himself, though; his 119 OPS+ and 21 doubles are just two of the reasons why he would be an upgrade at first base. I wrote more about Cooper in a piece from this past weekend; he is one of the many players who can add a larger spark and more length to the Astros’ offense.
Between Fortes, Bass, and Cooper, there are plenty of under-the-radar names on the Marlins that actually cater more to Houston’s needs than their stars do. Between these two reports about Detroit and Miami, rest assured that GM James Click and the rest of the front office are going to be even busier at the deadline than they were already planning to be.
Next. Houston Astros - 3 Reasons Josh Bell Should Be Top Trade Target. dark