3 Outfielders to Target if Andrew Benintendi Goes Elsewhere

The trade deadline is now just over a week away, and while the dam hasn’t broken on the trade market yet and many of the top candidates still have yet to be dealt, rumors are flying around like crazy. Teams are calling about Shohei Ohtani, a possible frontrunner may have emerged in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, and perhaps most importantly for the Houston Astros, talks are also heating up for Andrew Benintendi.

Benintendi has been talked about as a potential trade piece for a while now. Simply put, he’s the best outfielder about to hit free agency that plays for a bad team. It seems like a great fit for the Astros in the sense that his primary position is left field, and Michael Brantley, who normally alternates between left field and DH, has been hurt for over a month and still doesn’t have a set timetable for a return. In Brantley’s absence, left field has been a revolving door for Houston – Aledmys Diaz, Chas McCormick, and Yordan Alvarez have seen time at the position over the course of July. However, Diaz is a natural bench bat, McCormick has only hit well against lefties, and Alvarez has had to DH more in light of his recent hand injury. Trading for Benintendi would provide a solution there for the rest of the season.

The problem is, the Yankees have reportedly emerged as the lead suitor in trade talks, as per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It’s easy to see why – the Yankees have a greater number of high-profile prospects to use in trades, and if the reports are true, it might make sense for Houston not to overstep in a bidding war for someone they might not even be able to re-sign. After all, there’s always the option of trading for an alternative to Benintendi, and it just so happens that there are plenty (in no order; click the “next” button at the top to start slideshow).

Ian Happ, LF (Cubs)

What makes the prospect of trading for Happ so compelling is the fact that he’s a left fielder who has actually been more productive than Benintendi at the plate, and he has an additional year of team control. The catch is that the Cubs, as evidenced by the amount of money they spent in free agency on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki, clearly don’t plan on staying in the basement for too long. Happ is about to turn 28, meaning he’d still be an asset by the time the team plans on competing. So, not only is it uncertain as to whether Chicago wants to trade him, the extra year of team control would make the asking price a bit steeper. That said, if the two sides can negotiate a trade, I think it would be more beneficial for Houston than acquiring Benintendi.

I believe that Ian Happ has been the best full-time left fielder in the NL this season. That may seem like a bold claim, as he didn’t carry much name value until this year. However, he ranks 2nd among them in OPS (.807, behind only Kyle Schwarber), and 1st in both wRC+ and wins above replacement, according to Fangraphs. Happ’s actual wOBA exceeds his xwOBA by about 20 points and he has a slightly inflated .344 BABIP, but he has made plenty of sustainable improvements at the plate. His strikeout rate is down nearly 8% from a season ago, and while he probably won’t beat his career-high 25 home runs, he’s still slugging at a higher clip than last year because he has already surpassed his previous career-high in doubles.

Happ is also much improved on the defensive side of the ball. He has only made 2 errors in over 700 innings between left and center field, and while he was worth 5 outs below average according to Statcast in 2021, he has broken even in 2022, currently sitting at league-average. In comparison to Benintendi, Happ essentially has slightly worse contact and on-base capabilities with a far better power swing (.162 ISO compared to .081). They have an identical wRC+ this season at 126, but Happ’s well-roundedness offensively, as well as his contract extending into next year, makes him seem like a better alternative despite the slightly steeper price tag.

Bryan Reynolds, CF (Pirates)

The talk about Reynolds getting traded has not been nearly as loud as it could’ve been. First, he started off the season slowly, and he has also been hurt with an oblique injury. However, in between those two events, he started hitting like his best self again, and he is due to return to action today. This could very well be the week that he re-establishes himself as a big piece on the trade market.

Trading for Reynolds comes with more trade-offs than trading for Happ or Benintendi would. The Astros would almost certainly have to part ways with someone on their Major League roster, in addition to a couple of high-quality prospects. It’s no Juan Soto-level trade package, but it’s not anything to sneeze at either. The benefit, though, is that he is under team control until 2025, and he presents the option of upgrading at center field instead of left field, another place where the Astros don’t yet have a clear long-term answer. There is no denying what Reynolds can do at his peak: last season, he was an MVP candidate, finishing 6th in the NL in fWAR with 6.1, batting over .300 with a wRC+ of 142 (5th in the NL). This season, he has a wRC+ of 126 and is only on pace for about 3 fWAR, but that’s still better than what Astros center fielders have offered this year – and it’s only a fraction of what Reynolds can do.

The Astros have lost a lot of marquee free agents over the years and had no trouble replacing them. The loss of Gerrit Cole was offset by the emergence of Valdez and Garcia in the rotation. Jeremy Pena has arguably been better than Carlos Correa this year, for about 1/50 of the price. The departure that has actually hurt the most was that of George Springer – since he went to Toronto, Houston hasn’t been able to field a long-term solution in center field. Reynolds could be the answer to that.

Of all the moves the Astros could make this deadline that qualify as “realistic”, this would be one of the boldest. It’s undoubtedly a bigger swing than trading for a Happ or a Benintendi, but it’s also the type of deal that a World Series favorite needs to make, and at 1.5 games back of the Yankees, the Astros haven’t been this close to the AL’s top seed for months. Acquiring Bryan Reynolds would truly shake things up, and the Pirates might feel as though they can get the best of both worlds by cutting him loose for future assets, considering the emergence of rookie outfielder Jack Suwinski. It would be a statement, and Astros fans have been waiting on a statement trade for weeks.